Its been a while, but February is about to make a historic entrance!

Sorry for the lack of updates between storms, I would have updated more but I ran out of time... Here is my latest snow map! We are in for a hell of an ice storm and blizzard to start the month of February!

More of the Insane.

Well all that crazy moisture in the D.C., Baltimore area is now tapering off, but we are getting the heaviest snow that we have seen all winter! And its not like we haven't had a crazy winter with a 12 hour storm that brought close to 20 inches of snow here, and a blizzard around christmas, and yes even a Norlun trough! So it's really rather insane that we are getting our heaviest snow right now, which shows just how bad this is. The radar is just insane. We're in a band currently producing a good 3 or even 4 inches per hour with even a breeze kicking in, making it look like an all out blizzard around the area. This band doesn't look like it will be wanting to go anywhere anytime soon. In fact this may sit on us for more than an hour or two, which would shoot us an absolutely record shot of 5-8 inches of snow in the time frame of two hours plus the rest of the snow coming after the band and then snow we've already had! It just get crazier and crazier. Expect updates tomorrow but this will be the last of the night. Enjoy this because it may too be historical!!!!

Insane.

Absolutely mind boggling would probably be the proper term to describe what is currently going on with this storm. 119,000 power outages have been reported so far, and are rising at an extremely fast pace. At 6:30 PM, there was unverified information about a man that was struck by lightning around the Baltimore Washington area along with multiple flashes of lightning, thunder, and snow rates of 2-4, even some locally 5 inch amounts per hour!!!! Although the storm isn't holding onto its 4 and 5 inch per hour snow rates, there will certainly be bands of 2-3 inches per hour, and as the night wears on it is possible that we regain some of those 4 and 5 inch snow rates due to the storm strengthening over sea. Winds are beginning to gust in the tristate area, meeting my forecast of blizzard conditions, and potentially a complete blizzard. Its going to interesting as I am watching intense thunderstorms to the south that will move north, meet the cold air, and turn into mini blizzards. This storm may hold the most thunder snow of any storm in history and I wouldn't be surprised if more were to come later tonight. My snowfall forecast is looking right on and I am completely going with it through the night and into tomorrow. The ending time will be interesting. From what I can see it looks like the storm is slowing down a bit, and I would assume the snow would stop around 7 or 8 AM from south to north. But I've been hearing more unverified information about the storm actually beginning to stall, and even more unverified information about the storm speeding up. This will likely affect the total snow accumulations, and school cancellations for tomorrow. The snow could stop at any time between 4 AM and 9 AM. Right now I would say around 7 or 8 AM, because the heaviest snow will fall from now until around 3 AM. That's it for now, keep checking here for the latest.

-Scott Pecoriello

I'm hyping, but it might work this time...

A lot to say, not a lot of time. First off I would like to just briefly talk about the trend. A small area of weather interest passed the tristate this morning with originally estimates of maybe a flurry or snow shower passing through the area. Areas across the tristate had a crazy commute this morning, and did not know what to think of it. Heavy wet snow flew down this morning giving localized 5 inches of snow! That is insane! For me in SW CT we picked up 3 inches of snow! It was really just crazy. So when the models showed this, it was a nothing. Literally some showed no precipitation, others showed about 0.01 inches of liquid which would be like a trace to an inch. Rapid un-expected strengthening occurred. So what does this have to do with this coming storm? Well maybe, just maybe this is a serious modeling issue! All along I have had high totals, and in weird locations and now the models are catching on, but still not to my extent. I have an area of 10-15 inches of snow with locally 20 inches. No model shows close to that. Mean while we take a look at the radar down south and we see tornado warning and flood warnings for a storm aimed at us. I am sticking with my forecast because that's what a good meteorologist does! Tomorrow I expect my map to continue to shift and change as the future cast radars and RUC's and all that mumbo jumbo comes out! It looks like for now the main energy will go offshore, which to some extent I do have to agree with. Then a clump or group of moisture that is left inland rides the coast. I think that is what the model is underestimating and flipping out over. It's very possible, and actually rather likely that this area becomes a define low that passed to our south bringing what my current snowfall map shows. Now in terms of the blizzard conditions. I am aware it says blizzard twice on my map, but you should take that word very lightly. It would take a lot for blizzard conditions to come together for this, but late Wednesday night, we could see a period of heavy snow and wind that meets blizzard criteria. It will all be very interesting to see play out, and we will see if I am able to nail this system. Enjoy the map!



-Scott Pecoriello

Current Snow map!

-Scott Pecoriello

Breaking News: Wind Chill Advisory issued, plus forecasted temperate drop 5 degrees!!!

The Wind Chill Advisory is nothing new, but none the less, it forecast that the temperatures could feel like -20 degrees at times. These are temperatures that haven't been felt across the area for some 20 years now! The other thing, which I find extremely startling is that the forecasted temperatures for tonight across the area was around 0... Last time I just checked they were now forecast for -5 degrees. You don't see that very often, if at all. In fact, I would not be totally surprised if school around where I live were delayed tomorrow because of the temperatures! The highs, even in NYC and around the coast, are going to be in the mid to lower teens, and the further away from the shore you go that where temps will only top out in the single digits!!!! Yeah, single digits would be really cold for lows, but for highs!!!! What is this?! Now I know the big questions that everyone wants answered is not about the cold, but about the storm. Later tonight, I'm not going to do a whole blog just a map... So get ready for that... For now, stay warm!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

What ever is coming we know one thing... Its going to be historic...

This storm is bringing me the most frustration, confusion and hope that I have ever gotten out a storm. The tristate area could potentially see a widespread 1-3 feet of snow with winds gusting to 60 MPH and an all out historic blizzard. Is it likely? At this point not at all. Possible? Yes. The tristate area could see a widespread 2-4 inches of rain with extreme snow melt and winds gusting to 60 mph, causing insane flooding. Is it likely? No not really. Possible? Certainly. The tristate area could see a historic Ice storm with 1-3 inches of Ice, on top of 3-5 inches of snow, with a mix of about an inch of rain. Is it likely? More than the other solutions although dramatic changes would be needed for that forecast to be completely correct. Is it possible? Most definitely. If this is all confusing to you than that is a good thing, because at this point no one really knows anything other than the fact that an absolutely historic storm is on the way.

-Scott Pecoriello

-2 degrees.

The current temperature as of 8:23 AM and this Saturday morning is -2 degrees Fahrenheit. FREEZING. First off, I cannot mentally recall the last time that it hit -2 degrees where I live right near the coast of the Long Island Sound. The scary part is that the forecast for last night and early this morning was for a temperature of 9 degrees... and we got to -2... Something a little odd about that. I actually watched the temperature drop. At 8:18 it was 4 degrees, at 8:20 it go down to 0, and then by 8:23 we had a temperature of -2 degrees. Just wanted to do a quick update on this because it was so startling. Before I go, just something to think about... Sunday night into Monday morning the forecasted low is 0 degrees fahrenheit. So the fact that the temperature last time was about 11 degrees lower than forecasted, scares me that we could have a temperature of -11 degrees when I wake up to go to school on Monday... Plus the wind... I'm not saying its going to happen, but it certainly is a possibility.

-Scott Pecoriello

Choose your pick!

After looking at the model multiple times, there was not one clear answer to who was going to get what, and how much that what was going to be. So, instead I broke it down into 3 different scenarios. The first one (A snow lovers dream) has a monster blizzard in a large area, with widespread amount of 1-3 feet of snow possible. Yeah FEET! Scenario 2 was the one I despised, but had to put it up there anyways. This one had all the major cities in heavy rain, and rather then 1-3 feet of snow, it was 1-3 inches of rain!!!! This scenario would cause major, MAJOR flooding for the cities and surrounding areas that have already been pounded by snow. And then finally scenario 3, which I think is the most likely scenario at this point in time, is a large widespread area of snow going over to rain, and back to snow with a lot of mixing in between. That would include all the I-95 cities. So choose your pick, because it will take a while to narrow everything down!







Even the time frame of this storm is a little bit, "up in the air" at this point. My best guess as of now would be a 24 hour storm system from late Tuesday night, all the way into late Wednesday night, and maybe all the way into Thursday for the tristate area. Get excited!!!! Lots coming!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Another storm has come and gone... whats next?

So the storm forecasted to dump a good 4-6 inches of snow over the general tristate area, did just that. I believe NYC picked up about 4 inches of snow or just a little more, and then up toward where I live, I'm assuming I picked up around 5 inches of snow. The snow has completely stopped in every single location across the tristate, and its actually sunny. Yeah, thats the kind of storm we have, with not a lot of cloud cover around the storm. So for the rest of today sunny and cold with highs around the freezing mark. It's tonight when we get a low in the lower teens and single digits when we start to feel the coldest air of the season so far. A big milestone is what weather.com put in their forecast late last night. They showed that for fairfield county we get down to exactly 0 degrees!!!! Something I predicted weeks ago. So everything is working our really nicely, but now we get to move on to the next storm. I hate to admit a certain pattern currently going on with the weather here in the tristate but I think I have to. It seems like we've been getting all snow right? Well if you haven't noticed we're actually in a snow, rain, snow, rain pattern. We start back at Christmas when we picked up 15-30 inches of snow in the area and it was an all out blizzard. Then on New Years we had a small, but still, a rainstorm that quickly swept through. Then we had our major 6-30 inch snowstorm in the area, and following that we had the recent Ice/rainstorm that took place earlier this week and now our mini snowstorm bringing a good 4-6 inches of all snow. So given the pattern, the expectation would be for a rain or Ice storm, or maybe both. It gets worse, it seems the models may just agree with this. This is terrible news for a snow lover like me, because areas inland could potentially see a crippling amount of snow. Yeah, we're talking feet again. I still have hope though, and lots of things can change since the storm is so far out. The european model shows a monster snowstorm, AND includes all the I-95 cities in it. So we'll see what happens next, but a lot of exciting things are starting up!

-Scott Pecoriello

More frustration

This is going to be really hard. I am tempted to change my snow map, but I'm not going to; partially because I'm too lazy to do so because it take me a long time, but also because based on just the radar and current surface data, and even past data I still believe the map is right. The frustration comes in when it comes to the forecasting models. The NAM showing less precip, and so are some other models that I trust a lot. So even though I'n not literally changing the map, I would probably like to shift my 6-10 inches of snow to the east of Fairfield county. Now I think the whole entire tristate area will receive between 4 and 6 inches of snow, with locally 7 or 8 inches the further you go into CT. Its possible that something happens and we see more or less. If I had to give a wider range I would say at an absolute minimum we would all need to pick up 3 inches of snow. And this is if the low really goes a tad further south and doesn't quite strengthen. Now at absolute tops, someone picks up 10 inches of snow. I know I just wrote this off the map for the area, but if everything clicks just perfectly, and the storm comes further north and strengthens quicker and stronger, we will see the 10 inch snowfall for some areas. Yes, I'm aware 3-10 inches of snow is a massive range. It would be a massive range 3-5 days out, but for the night prior to a storm I would use the words embarrassing range; but unfortunately thats really where we're at. But, the reason I said 4-6 inches was just make it easier for everyone. Maybe even 5-8 for the area, its really too hard! I'm going to say we won't know for sure what the totals will be until the morning hours!!! Stay here for more updates!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Annoyed but happy...

I am terribly annoyed with what is currently going on, but at the same time I'm happy about it. We look back at about 2-4 days ago and we see my crazy snow map for this storm showing a brave strip from parts of Long Island, through Connecticut, and right up toward Boston of 10-16 inches of snow. Yes, at that time I was hyping up the storm based on the model trends so far this season, and where they like to show where the greatest snowfall is, and then where they actually place the greatest snowfall. Then the models along with nearly every weather source completely demolished the idea of a snowstorm. For the models they weakened it instead of strengthening and for the websites and people and publicity, they showed top snowfall to be about 5 inches across the area. Seeing that models, and even weather sources, sometimes do this before a big storm, I decided to lower my accumulations but still keep them on the higher side of everyone else giving the general area 5-8 locally 10 inches of snow. After continuously weakening the snowstorm way, I was considering taking down my totals a really good notch... but of course, today changed it all! The models were not as strong or aggressive as originally, but showed a trend of strengthening the storm. This annoyed me because everyone down played it so much, that people aren't going to mind the storm. But now, if you haven't noticed, news channels that yesterday said the tristate area should expect a good 2-4 inches of snow, are now saying 3-5 inches, and the latest I've heard, 4-6 inches of snow. Well I'm not falling for it. The models are going to continue to strengthen this storm, so by getting ahead of the game I have bravely put up an area of 6-10 inches of snow. This storm will probably produce a lot of 5, 6, 7 and even 8 inch amounts in and around NYC. Then you get up to the favored CT area (my house) and then you begin to see the 7,8, and even up to 9 inch amounts... At least thats what I believe at this point. For my area, I am forecasting school to be cancelled tomorrow, but I can't guarantee that; for sure there will be some kind of school issue so at an absolute minimum we will see a delay. Now where are the 10 inch amounts? Maybe even up to a foot? I believe that will be to the North and East of Fairfield and New Haven counties. So that may include areas just barley north of Providence RI and on into areas like Boston. Could we see some isolated 10, 11, and 12 inch numbers around here? Sure. Is it likely? No. The reason I have so many areas in this 6-10+ range is because I think this storm will hold a lot of surprises. Meaning, an area like NYC predicted for 3-5 inches of snow by many, will wake up and have 6 or 7 inches. Not a big deal, but a surprise non-the-less. Its when the surprises get bigger where you have problems. For example, where I live up in Fairfield Country a 3-5, 4-6 inch range is expected, but I think the area may be waking up to 6-10 inches of snow which is when things get dangerous. For those of you that don't love the snow, don't worry because this storm will be super, super short. We're talking 6-10 hours. I say for the Tristate area we all have snow by around midnight, give or take about 1 hour, and the snow is out of here completely by 11 AM give or take an hour. Enjoy the snow map, and more importantly, ENJOY THE SNOW!



Just briefly, the storm next week at this point looks like it could be monstrous. I've been watching, and we have the potential for a powerful and this time, a long storm. Maybe more than a 24 hour period! Expect lots of updates throughout the weekend and into next week. The time frame seems to be from Tuesday to Thursday so watch out. But for now, expect the coldest air of the season to begin working its way toward us, with the coldest night looking to be Sunday night. Remember my forecast of 0 degrees on Sunday night that I made nearly a week ago?! Looks like it will be right on!

-Scott Pecoriello

I hyped it... just a little...

After watching the model runs consistently showing less and less snow, I decided that the small strip 10-16 inches of snow is no longer reasonable. Originally my thoughts were that the model runs were going to continue to strengthen the snowstorm maybe even into something that would act similar to our last major snowstorm in the Tristate area, but that is almost definitely out of scenarios. So any changes to the snow map? YES. Some really large changes too. Originally I had thought the storm would gain enough rapid strength that it would try to pull in some warm air causing rain close to the Cape and just south of Boston to Long Island. Now, since the runs show the storm further offshore with less strengthening, it should be an all snow event. With that said, it looks like those areas will be in the top snowfall zone with now an estimated 5-8 inches of snow, with someone receiving roughly 10 inches of snow. I will continue to keep the little corridor that used to be my 10-16 inches of snow, in the top snowfall zone with 5-8, locally 10 inches of snow. Still, none of this is set in stone. I still think model runs will begin to pick up the strength of this storm soon. I plan for the whole Tristate area to be at least in a Winter Weather Advisory by either late tonight or sometime earlier tomorrow. I plan for the NWS (National Weather Service) to eventually see that this storm is bigger deal than they estimated, and quickly issue a Winter Storm Warning for at least Northern NJ and CT, maybe even the city. If you haven't noticed, something seems very off about this storm. This is currently a nice, healthy storm system dropping up to 8 inches snow across portions of the lower Midwest. Now when a storm like that is heading to the North and East, even at a fast rate, when it reaches the coast it will almost immediately begin to blow up; sometimes even just sensing the ocean will cause the beginning of rapid strengthening. Yet the models continue to show it hitting the coast and actually having a declination in precipitation and then problems with strengthening, until it reaches a good 50-100 miles off the coast and even then not too impressive. Doesn't sound to correct. What should happen is if you're having a storm producing 8 inches of snow already, when it senses the coast it should blow up giving you a similar result to the last snowstorm that caused nearly 40 inches of snow in places. I DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT think that will happen. This is due to the amount of moisture it will be able to tap into it. Looks like it won't be able to get too much, if anything, from the gulf, and then models continue to show it struggling even to get the Atlantic moisture. Before I show the current snow map, one more crucial aspect of the storm... THE RATIOS. I just reviewed the numbers and it looks like a 15:1, 20:1, potentially even 25:1 ratio snow. Meaning for every inch of liquid picked up, 15 inches of snow would fall, hence the 15:1 ratio snow. Right now, while most models show .25-.45 inches of liquid in and around the Tristate, I believe we could pick up a good .5-.8 inches of liquid. If we put that into snow we would receive somewhere between 7 and 16 inches of snow. But I just took down my 10-16 inches of snow right? Yes, but that is because of the lack of confidence from the models, and other forecasts. So a lot to think about here. A LOT. Keep checking back and enjoy the snow map!



More updates on the next storm (Possibly late Sunday into Monday?) and even more (Tuesday and Wednesday storm, late week storm?) coming up soon, so stay here!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

One storm down, many to go

So one storm is on its way out, and I hope it gets out of here quick because there is quite some snow melt taking place, which does not please a snow geek like myself. The cold front that will enter tomorrow after this storm gets out of the way, will set the stage for what could potentially be yet another major winter storm for the region. Even though the models are all over the place, I'm still giving a first shot at the snow map, since the storm is only 2-3 days out. This storm seems like it will be a very quick mover as it should come into the area Thursday late at night, and into the day on Friday, probably ending before the sun goes down. In that time period, it seems like this region may be on, or very close to the targeted snowfall. Before I move on I would just like to mention the region from around Islip LI all the way to Boston MA, and everywhere in between in that thin tiny area. In case you haven't noticed that area has been SLAMMED by Winter storms this season. So very 3 MAJOR snowstorms have hit that area, 1 or 2 moderate, and a couple that were more of a nuisance. That thin strip of region has been hit with more than 40 inch snow amounts, already topping there average snowfall for the entire winter season, with Winter not even half way through!!!! And it looks like once again, they may very well be the target of this storm. WOW. I am strongly trusting the NAM on this, since it handles these situations quite nicely. I am forecasting that little strip to get roughly 10-16 inches of snow, with some place probably getting another foot and a half of snowfall. Please keep in mind this is a first guess with a whole lot of uncertainty, and I am also going on a bit of a limb with this forecast. Most other models are still producing 3-6 inch amounts for the area, but I am thinking that the snowfall on those models will only increase. I was a little concerned when the latest NAM model came in showing a slight decrease in snowfall, but I believe all models (even the NAM) will begin to increase starting with the next runs. Enjoy the snow map and keep it here as a lot of changes are more than likely to take place with this forecast!



-Scott Pecoriello

WOW

So again, I don't want to brag, but I think my whole forecast played out pretty nicely. Here where I live I got about 2 inches of snow before it changed over to sleet, freezing rain, and rain, and we were right there in the 2-4 inch zone. Areas to the northern edge of the 2-4 inch zone picked up, believe it or not, about 4 inches of snow! My circle of significant icing probably played out the best though, because that zone is currently being pounded by Ice. All that nice powdery snow that I had on the ground is now glazed over by a sheet of strong Ice, and right now my whole driveway is an Iceskating rink!!!! Ok so this storm will be out of here by later tonight, with all the worst for the tristate area practically over. I was surprised this morning to see every single school in my area closed, like I said should happen, but I never that it actually would because I assumed some of the superintendents would be just a little bit too stubborn to do so. But when it came down to it, I'm happy they took the safe way out. It's really remarkable though that towns that I can literally see from my window have not gone to school for... 1 whole week!!!! That doesn't happen up here. They had Wednesday and Thursday off from the 18-20 inch snowstorm, then Friday was a staff development for the area, and then Saturday and Sunday was the weekend, Monday was Martin L King day, and today schools are cancelled because of the Ice!!! It's really insane. OK, now onto other business... our next storm!!!

I honestly do not believe they are making a big enough deal out of all of this, meaning they should make it bigger. It is hard to tell from the models since they are still focusing on the current storm, but according to the NAM, another 18 inch snowstorm would not be out of the woods for the storm Thursday into Friday. Actually, in terms of snowfall and banding and winds, it looks almost identical to the monster storm we had last week; the difference being that this is one storm system, not two combining and bombing out. Now the CMC, GFS, and European have the storm there, but show barley 3-6 inch amounts for the area. So showing only 1-3. The only two on board for a good storm is the DGEX and the NAM. So why should this be made a bigger deal? Well if you can think back to a full week ago when few models were on board for a snowstorm, what ended up happening? A monumental snowstorm occurred. So i'm not exactly saying that we're going to get another 18-20 inch snowstorm with someone getting almost 3 feet, but I'm suggesting that the current little 3-6 locally 8 inches being predicted around NYC is a little bit of BS. I mean could that end up happening?... sure. Do I think it will? No. So Just a consensus forecast for right now that I would go with, includes the following (Keep in mind this is more than likely to change either way)...

Pittsburgh: 3-6 inches

Washington D.C.: 2-4 (5 inches possible)

Baltimore: 3-5 (6 inches possible)

Philadelphia: 6-10 inches (1 foot possible)

NYC: 8-12 inches (Locally higher Northeast of the City)

Harford: 10-15 inches (18 inches possible)

Providence: 10-15 (Rain mixes in)

Boston: 10-15 inches (Rain mixes in)

I would honestly guess that target zone to fall somewhere between NYC and Boston... So that thin Connecticut corridor that has been getting killed by snow (my house) looks like it will be slammed again. And I can't even begin to speak about the storm on the 26th. All I can say is that this mornings run of the GFS had a 960 MB low just off the coast of ME for two different storms!!!! This is certainly shaping up to be an absolutely historical Winter, and this should continue right through February.

Just quickly before we go, a couple posts ago I mentioned the absolute coldest air of the season and that day has shifted just a bit, but the temperature has dropped. From the 21st to the 23rd will be the COLDEST air of the season, and potentially set records. This is air we have not seen in years. I said before everyday I check on the temperature for those days it drops a little. It was like 14, then 10, and then I said it was 6... Well now it is 4 degrees, and I made a prediction it will be 0 degrees on the night of the 22nd, and it looks like that forecast will be right on! So just wanted to leave you with that freezing thought!

-Scott Pecoriello

Last post of the night... Snow looking good!

Just a quick update on the storm before I go to bed. It looks like the extreme southern sections of the tristate are already seeing some flakes begin to fly, and it should take over the whole tristate area from south to north at around 12 AM or 1 AM in the morning. It's looking just a little bit better for snow for the area. I still am sticking with my snowfall map from before, as I do believe for the most part it will play out similar to that. The thing that could give us a burst of maybe heavier snow is a band currently being tracked on the radar. An unexpected batch of heavy snow is south of Philly right now, but could reach our area close to the early morning hours, before quickly changing to some heavy ICE and snow. I doubt the public schools will open on time tomorrow with the exception of NYC who should be fine for school tomorrow. Now a snow day may be a little on the extreme side but it would not take much for it to happen. That's it for now. Enjoy the wintry mess!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Winter Weather Advisory now issued.

I was just waiting for the the winter weather advisory to be issued before doing an update on this storm, which seems it could be quite messy. We're looking at a similar set up to the last storm that brought the area anywhere from 6(close to the city) to nearly 30 inches(Up toward CT). So should we expect another 1-3 feet of snow? NO. This time the second low near the great lakes isn't going to move in quick enough to shove the warm air off to the East giving a Northwesterly wind flow, rather it will be slower and keep the winds coming from the south dragging in the warm air. So what to expect out of all of this? Well it looks like the Tristate area will have snow showers move in to the area close to the midnight time period give or take about 1 hour, meaning the snow should move in between 11 PM and 1 AM. The snow will quickly get its act together and it looks like somewhere between 5 AM and 9 AM we get a quick period of moderate snowfall before gradually from south to north a wintry mix takes over. The wintry mix looks like it will consist of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and a little bit of ice. The hard part of the forecast is when the change over takes place, and when does the heaviest precipitation move in. If the heavy precipitation moves in between 5 AM and 9 AM (less likely) then we have a lot more snowfall around the area. If it moves in during the afternoon (More likely) then we'll have a batch of heavier rain and less snow. My current thinking though is that it moves in between 11 AM and 4 PM before lightening up. What does this mean? Well that wintry mix time period looks to be between 9 AM and noon before all rain takes over, so that really heavy precipitation may take place during the wintry mix! This would mean lots of problems concerning travel. Now for places like the city, I expect a quicker change over so maybe not as many problems regarding the wintry mix, but for places around CT and the lower Hudson valley, there are bound to be travel problems. Also the freezing rain seems to not be getting the attention it may deserve. It has been freezing the past week with snow on the ground the consists of temperatures below freezing. So believe it or not, the snow on the ground does have a small effect on the air temperate right above it, which may create a major issue. When rain eventually enters the last 100-50 feet (just an estimate) before hitting the ground, the rain may actually freeze up at the end just before making contact, and then when making contact it will continue to further freeze. So it'll be really, really interesting to see how it all plays out. A lot of shifting could take place during this, but either way I do expect a minimum of a delay tomorrow morning across the lower Hudson valley and all of Connecticut. Also north of the Merit Parkway and into areas North and west of Newburgh NY there is a good chance of having no school, or at least it would be a good idea. For those areas there is actually a winter storm warning for 2-5 inches of snow with maybe up to a half a foot of snow the further north you go. Believe it or not in the middle of typing this up, they had an update on the forecast, and now I believe even areas just to the north and west, and even along the CT coast will have no school or at least they should not have school because freezing rain may last until 2 pm! OK, so almost done with this storm. Last thing before I'm done is just the snow map for the snow and ice tonight into tomorrow. ENJOY!



Another snowstorm?! Mother nature has no mercy this winter season on the area. Well a monster snowstorm may unfold late Thursday and into the day on Friday with more heavy snowfall and wind. Lets start with the models and go from the least extreme to the most. So the GFS and the European show only 2-4, 4-6 inch amounts, which isn't bad, but just not good enough for me. Now we move onto the DGEX where a major snowstorm is shown with strong winds, and such a strong storm that some rain begins to mix in along the coast. Then the one I was most impressed with was the Canadian! the CMC (Canadian) model had a 975 MB low over Philadelphia Late on Thursday, with then a 969 MB low over Providence RI. And what amazed me was that even with the storm on top of the coast, enough cold air was dragged in to keep almost all the big cities in complete snow, with winds whipping way past 50 MPH. With that solution each of the big cities would get 12 inches+. Exaggerated? Probably, but you never know. The models are on a trend toward a stronger and stronger solution so we really have to watch this. Could this be a storm like we saw last Tuesday into Wednesday? Certainly. Could it be just some snow showers and a little bit of moderate snow? Certainly. Way too early to tell. Here's my fist shot at the system!



Before we go, there seems to be some model consensus on a snowstorm sometime around the 25th or 26th of January, maybe yet another east coast snowstorm? Keep it here for all the latest on these snowstorms, there will be many, MANY more to come!

-Scott Pecoriello

First blog unrelated to precipitation... Instead, Temperature...

This just needs to be a heads up because the coldest air of the season, and for some potentially in history, is on the way and in a hurry. The dates to watch out for are the 21st and the 22nd, thats when really interesting stuff is going to occur. First off before I get to the temperatures, I have to add the precipitation aspect to it. So, as all this cold is going on it seems a storm may come up along the coast on the 20th and the 21st bringing some type of snow, and although all the details aren't in about it, it is likely to be big. With that moving through along with the cold air already in place, a huge northwesterly wind takes over literally crippling areas. I've noticed a trend too. Two days ago the forecasted low for the 21st was 14 degrees, then yesterday it was 10 degrees, and right now it stands at 6 degrees; it's pretty obvious that something pretty substantial is probably going to unfold out of all of this. I believe that even in the Tristate area, actual real temperature numbers could drop close to 0, and then on the 22nd highs only topping out in the middle teens at best! Just to add in some really interesting news, the whole winter season has taken what I consider a complete turn. Do you remember the original forecast for this winter? Something along the lines of a cold December (Happened for the most part), and a warm January (Obviously not!), and then after supposidly a warm February and normal March? Well Now totally new forecasts have come out showing a cold and very snow Late January into February, and likely into March. So lots to watch out for, and keep it here for the latest.

YES!

So this morning watching the "Big Dog" off of the Accuweather Professional site, where Joe Bastardi admitted that his forecast for Winter is no good anymore. He said the first thaw he predicted didn't work out and then he said it doesn't look like his thaw prediction or at least warmer weather prediction is going to work out for the rest of the winter!!!! I mean not great news for him, but for me, YES! I am happy because I see a lot more snow and cold coming to my backyard on top of the 24-30 inches of snow I have on the ground... you thought I only got 18-20 inches which is true, but we already had probably around 8 inches or more on the ground. So what exactly is in store? Well I can tell you quickly that Monday night we will have snow showers around the tristate, light and scattered, going over to a quick moderate snow north of the city while the city quickly changes to some sleet, freezing rain, rain, and some snow, before everyone in the tristate changes over to that around the morning hours of Tuesday. The NYC changes to mostly rain, with some sleet every once in a while, and just to the north its some rain with some wet snow and sleet, before I expect everyone to change over to rain around 3 pm on Tuesday. Tuesday night a period of light to moderate snow takes place before its all over with plenty of cold air and a new storm on the horizon. As for snow totals, it will be tough. The way I see it now the city at best gets 1-3 and to the north around SE NY and CT we will be lucky to see 2-4 inches. Still too far in advance, so this could change. But before that, tomorrow night we all pick up a quick dusting of snow. Thats it for now, check back on the details later!

-Scott Pecoriello

Dont want to brag but... I WAS RIGHT THEY WERE WRONG!!!!

I hope you can agree that my forecast was freakishly accurate, even from the first snow map which projected the bulls eye to be way west of everyone else, and I had much higher amounts than anyone else. My last map last night In my opinion was dead on. Accuweather had 6-12 inches From Fairfield county to Hartford, while I had 16-20+; Weather.com had 6-12, or around 10-15 inches, and then other blogs and sources had around 1 foot. So I think the 16-20+ worked out perfectly. Now that I'm done bragging about my forecast, I would like to say that the Tristate area currently has just about (for some less, others more) the amount of snow they should receive for the whole winter, with more than half the Winter to go!!!! Now not to hate on Joe Bastardi, because I really look up to the man, but I believe he said that we would have just about average snowfall for the winter around this area. I mean clearly that is not at all the case. An interesting fact though is that currently a believe almost a 3/4 of the US has snow on the ground, AND even crazier, this past week 49 out of the 50 states saw some type of snow... Hawaii is that one correct? NO, Hawaii was able to get snow in the mountains... I know crazy!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Maybe a little bit more snow before all it done...

At least for Fairfield and New Haven counties in CT it looks like we may see a couple more flakes in the next hour here as a weak band of snow develops, and then behind that it looks like a chunk of snow will work its way toward us maybe causing a dusting sometime tonight maybe a little after 10 PM or so. For the most part though all is done. I am praying for a snow day tomorrow, but I really don't know if that is going to be able to happen. A delay, eh maybe, still not a great chance. Now maybe I'm wrong. I have not seen the roads yet so it could be really bad and I just don't know. All I know is the Major highways like I-95 and the Merit are just fine, and my driveway has just been cleared, and so has my street, but not well. If thats what the rest of my town looks like, then no school would make sense, but i'm assuming it doesn't.

-Scott Pecoriello

Still snowing?!?!

Its about 1 PM, and I'm right next to a window, and It's continuing to snow outside. In fact I would classify this as a light to moderate snow right now maybe adding an additional 0.5 - 1 inch of snow. Still the roads I think are terrible here although I haven't been driving around since well we are literally snowed in. The drifting and blowing has lead to roughly 20 inches of snow in my driveway, meanwhile one of the drifts that I had to shovel measured just under 30 inches of snow!!!! The wind is still gusty so even plowing the road may not do much even though the heavy snow is over. The snow may very well just blow back into the road and stick since no one is driving and temperatures are well below the freezing mark with snow showers in the area. Actually as I blog the snow continues to get heavier, as I guess a small separate band has done some strengthening. So for now this is it with the storm, any flurries should be done by tonight. It will be interesting to what the school calls are for tomorrow, and actually some exciting things to leave you with, one we will have at a minimum snow showers saturday evening and maybe into sunday morning, and then tuesday may bring a storm, but warmer air will come with it. But between now and Tuesday may be the coldest air of the winter! Lows won't be too far off from 0 in some areas!!!! And even after the storm tuesday which looks to either be rain or a mix, we will have more frigid air, and of course the possibility for more snow.

-Scott Pecoriello

Snow Total Update... Incredible!

Ridgefield, 22.0"... Newtown, 20.0"... Danbury, 17.9"... New Canaan, 17.0"... Centerport, 16.2"... Southbury, 15.0"... North Branford, 15.0"... Westport, 15.0"... Seymour, 14.0"... Branford, 14.0"... Norwalk, 13.5"... Levittown, 13.2"... Stratford, 13.0"... Smithtown, 12.8"... East Rutherford, 12.5"... North Babylon, 12.5"... Shelton, 12.1"... Bedford Park, 12.1"... Plainview, 12.0"... Lisbon, 12.0"... Waterbury, 12.0"... Bridgeport, 12.0"... Somers, 11.5"... Lindenhurst, 10.0"... Tuxedo Park, 10.0"... Floral Park, 9.7"... Armonk, 9.5"... Meriden, 9.5"... Voluntown, 9.5"... Sayville, 9.3"... Roselle, 9.2"... Central Park, 9.1"... Flanders, 9.0"... Rego Park, 8.9"... Brooklyn Heights, 8.8"... Nyc/la Guardia, up to 6.9"... Mount Sinai, up to 10.6"... Newark Airport, up to 9.1"... Upton, up to 11.8"... Nyc/jfk Airport, up to 6.1"... Islip Airport, up to 13.9"

Well these are the totals as of around 6 AM. There are bands of snow though stuck across connecticut, so some of these are even higher!!!! How'd my forecast go? Well not too hot in the NYC, Philly areas where I was expecting more snow. Last report I heard Philly got 5 or 6 inches which would be in my range so you can't call me on that one I said 5-8 inches would fall, and in NYC yes I was off, my forecast of 8-12 wasn't quite correct, but wasn't far off. Last checked NYC had around 7 inches, so about an inch off. NOW, my backyard... A DIFFERENT STORY!!!! From my window I look and thought to myself, yeah probably about 8 inches or a foot of snow... And then thought to myself how maybe my snow totals would just make it into the bottom range... WRONG! First of all when I went online and learned 15 inches of snow was recorded I was shocked, and then I went to my backyard to find 18 inches of snow!!!! And still some good snow coming down... Hmmmm let me see... Did anyone else say 16-20 inches of snow for Fairfield county? NOOO... Just me!!!! Not to brag or anything, but I think I got it right on the dot! As for other portions of Fairfield county, I've heard up to 2 feet, so no one can be complaining to me the I hyped anything... Walking outside it was up to my knee's, and not to mention well well well over my little dogs head who had to be carried houses away to just go to the bathroom... I think for my town, 18-20 inches of snow is a good bet for a total!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Snow coming to an end?

If you have notice across NYC and the southern burrows, the snow has stopped. And across the northern burrows like fairfield county, the last couple bands of really heavy snow are throwing every last bit of moisture at us. Looking outside my wind I would say visibility is easily less than 1/4 mile and winds are gusting to around 30-40 mph, with some of the heaviest snow coming down. Although it will continue to lighten up toward the later portion of the morning, I think we are about to get the back lashing from the storm, which will contain moderate bands of snow as it sits on us. Now the backlashing may move back down into NYC for a least a period of time before moving off again. So for NYC you picked up almost 9 inches of snow now, and maybe you can get 1 or 2 more inches before its all done, but a foot will be a long shot. For the Northern Burrows though and into CT around a foot has been picked up, and according to the national weather service 4-6 more inches is possible. I don't know if we'll get that much but another 2-4 or 3-5 is certainly possible.

-Scott Pecoriello

Quick 1:45 AM update on the blizzard...

I told you I would not be missing a second of this storm, and I'm keeping my promise. If I had to guess I would say we have between 3 and 5 or 4 and 6 inches of snow about now in Fairfield county, as for NYC I can assume they have a good half a foot of snow or so around central park. So really good banding is coming in, one in particular just moved in and produced some nice gusty winds and blizzard conditions around the area. Not only that but snow rates were up to a good 1-3 inches with it. More bands like that are expected throughout the night. Latest from me is that we will get another 10-12 inches of snow before all is done. This is including every last flake of snow. There is some insane bands of extraordinarily heavy snow to the south and east of us. It may just clip us or at least enhance the snow, so that will raise totals. Looks like Rhode Island and Eastern CT (not coastal) will just be crushed by extreme snows, and into parts of eastern MA. This will probably be my last update of the night or morning which ever way you view it. Enjoy the blizzard. More updates throughout tomorrow!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Getting real excited and nervous about this band of extremely heavy snow...!

As I was just about to make another update about this crucial band, a special weather statement was just issued. When watching the band on radar it is really hard to visualize how close it will come to us, but according to the special statement it will come close enough to bring a snow rate of 2-3 inches of snow per hour, along with potential thunder and lightning. This band will expand and strengthen though, so it could be really bad. If this does indeed happen we are on track for some of the higher totals. Now something else to pick up on is the wind. Just glancing outside it has really gotten going. Whether the storm has really strengthened enough at this point to bring strong winds, or these are just winds within the strong bands that contain thunderstorm like winds. But it's interesting that these are really thunderstorms where the temperate is under 32 degrees causing the precipitation to fall in snow form. So we could potentially see some dangerous things from now till 7 or 8 in the morning, and then blowing and drifting snow along with backlash falling snow through the afternoon, and even some snow in the evening. Thats it for now from this quick update. An all nighter will be pulled, and I will try my best to see every second of this storm!

-Scott Pecoriello

The Blizzard is here...

Well the storm has certainly made quite an entrance across the tristate, where nearly every school besides NYC has been closed. Will they close the schools there? I give it about a 60% chance. Some real heavy bands will begin to move in fairly soon, but depending on how good it looks in the morning will depend on school or not. Anyways, one band of snow containing very impressive snowfall rates and even some lighting and thunder looks to be passing a good distance to the east, although as it moves along it could slightly enhance some of our snow. Now behind that is the band that's going to decide our problem. Is it going to be a total of 6-12? 8-14? 10-16? 12-18? Even a whopping 18-24 inches of snow?!?! Well this band is producing 3-5 inches of snow per hour it looks like, so if this sits over us for a half hour or 45 minutes, where talking 2-4 really quick and heavy inches of snow, and enhancement in and around which could produce 2-3 inches per hour, well for maybe hours... So then 6-10 inches maybe from that, without counting the 2-4 that would have already fallen, and then even the bands after that which could produce up to 3-5 inches depending on a number of things... So you can maybe understand why if absolutely everything ends up correct, I guess 18-24 inches could still be in the game... Ok last snow map update is in... Enjoy, and Enjoy the snowstorm... By the way, the winds will begin to pick up... Although it may not be an exactly classified blizzard, blizzard conditions can be expected at times, especially toward the morning hours!!!!



-Scott Pecoriello

Big storm coming...

It's too late to do a big update on the storm since it's a quarter to eleven, but a short one will do... So are we talking about a storm like Christmas...? As of now, no... And it looks like it will stay that way... First off the storm will be 12-18 hours long, maybe up to 20 hours for some, but not like the 24-30 hour Christmas storm... We will also not be seeing 60 to 70 mph winds with this one and storm surges that bring cars under water in CT... Looks more like 35-50 mph gusts with little if any storm surge... Now in terms of total... Well I updated a snow map... Lots of other stations suggest the area of "12+" to be more to the east of my map, but lets go back to previous storms... a perfect example the Christmas one... All forecasts were for that NYC to Hartford to Boston corridor to see to bulls eye, but in the end, NJ to the west saw the nearly 3 feet of snow... Not to say that NYC to Hartford to Boston didn't see an incredible snow, just not the bulls eye... So my Bulls eye is from western and central LI, to Norwalk and New Haven up to Hartford and the west of Boston... These people will see 12-18 inches, but someone will get 2 feet... I do think the area surrounded in white will reach blizzard criteria for a time, with really heavy snow and strong winds... keep it here for more tomorrow... Enjoy the map...



-Scott Pecoriello

Snowstorm

I am afraid to admit it, but when I just checked the snow outside my house, there's about 2.5 inches on the pavement, and about 3 inches on the grass. Let me tell you since early this morning it has been snowing at a really good clip, but didn't really start sticking well till about 12:00 PM or so, and thats when the snow got really heavy around here. So lets see 3 hours and 20 minutes of good snow with 2.5-3 inches... Not too bad. About 1 inch per hour of snow which is fairly good. Probably another hour of an inch of snow per hour which bumps it up to 3.5 inches on the pavement and about 4 on grass, and then after that we get another inch of flurries and snow showers through tonight, so your looking at 4.5 on pavement and 5 on the grass... THEN, we have another low kind of associated with this storm forming to the south, which will just give us another maybe quick burst of snow causing us to probably get right into that 5-8 inch range of snow. So i'm still going with my forecast, but I don't like how I only have 2 or 3 inches of snow outside when I've been watching all this heavy snow come down. Keep it here, one more band of moderate snow coming up!

-Scott Pecoriello

Norlun trough; rare, and heavy...

The name for this is a Norlun trough... What's that? Quite interesting actually, the Norlun trough was named after the two meteorologists who discovered it. Its basically an intense increase in snowfall over an area no more than 100 miles in width. Where this sets up can't be told until it actually happens which makes this even more interesting! Listening to other meteorologists who have much more experience than I do, they say these tend to stall around and they've seen it produce anywhere from 2 inches to 5 inches to over a foot of snow in an extremely narrow area, and narrow time frame... So what's the snowfall forecast? Well there are some real changes in my map from yesterday, so here it is... North of my little dash line will be where lake enhanced snow is which is why I put 5-8+ there... In our area, looks like we will be the target, I say 5-8 inches... But keep in mind, the snow could set up somewhere else and rip us off, it could just pass over us quickly, or it could stall out over our area and we could see even more than 8 inches... As far as school cancellations go, I say a minimal early dismissal for sure for most people with the exception of the City. By the way south of the city seems to get more of the 3-5 inch range, of course keeping in mind what I said, that could really change... Now if not an early dismissal, I would not be totally shocked to hear school was cancelled for some... The snow does seem to start really late tonight, or you could say really early tomorrow morning, somewhere around the 3 AM 4 AM time period. So here's the map... ENJOY!



Expect lots of updates tomorrow!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello

A really quick update... I know I haven't done a long update on this storm but I plan to really snow because not only may this storm be a big one, but a rare, and interesting one... This one crazy band of snow id going to set up, and when it does, an inch or two of snow per hour is possible... My best guess is that it will set up in the area that includes NYC, Southwestern CT, Central long island, and parts of the Hudson Valley... There, a localized foot is possible... Lots of those areas got socked up nearly 3 feet of snow on Christmas!!!! Here's my snow map!!!! ENJOY.



-Scott Pecoriello

way too much controversy over the weekend storm... Surprisingly the storm next week seems to be more clear...

Too many different scenarios... and not even between models, but between meteorologists... First off, the weather channel is suggesting snow starting as early as later on thursday... Thursday night into all of friday lots of flurries and snow showers, probably 1-3 inches with just that. Then we come to Saturday, and they predict a good snow for the tristate area, meaning on the heavier side with some good winds. But saturday isn't that way for everyone. It looks to be where most of the complication will happen. Why? Well Bastardi, the one who always finds away to blow up a storm and give hope that there will be a blizzard, suggests this one will just basically blow over more than anything else... Other meteorologists who go against the snow a lot, suggest NYC on northward will have to watch for a snowstorm... Then even other meteorologists say that DC tp Philly will have to look out for a snowstorm... but i think all agree that northern new england gets in on the action... so with all that said, i still stand where i stood last night... not too big a change from yesterday, so im keeping my snow map the same.

Now just a quick update on next weeks storm, which seems to target wednesday... I see what could be similar to the christmas storm where someone gets 30 inches of snow and a blizzard, and I can also see what happened the week before christmas where the storm completely missed with just a little bit of coastal snow... Now as of now I am definitely leaning toward the 30 inch snowstorm just based off models but this is a full 7 days away, so lots can happen with that in the weather world... Keep it here...

-Scott Pecoriello

Quick update... SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well thats the word to sum up this quick blog post... SNOW. There is a hell of a lot of snow headed our way through the month of January. For now, two important storms to know about...

1. A weak clipper system will drop down putting a general 1-3 inches of snow across most areas, with localized 2-4 inch amounts. But, models are now printing out that the storm will slow down enough for some serious strengthening to take place before it gets out of here. Right now the areas that get the heavier snow are not so clear, but do I have an idea of where they might be...? OF COURSE! So here is the first of many snow maps showing where the impacts may be... This is far from set in stone, but it looks like similar areas that were impacted by the last blizzard, may be impacted again... And some models show eventually that this will be an all out blizzard for some areas... Of course nothing like the last one, but a bad storm...



2. Now a bigger storm... Maybe even familiar to the Christmas blizzard?! Well it is very very early to tell, but sometime mid to late next week, as storm system will form around the Carolinas and FL, and then rapidly strengthen into some kind of a monster and go somewhere... Where it goes and its impacts are unclear, but the GFS (the model that nailed the last blizzard) is showing quite a storm out of that for the same areas once again... So we'll have to keep a watch out...

3. The pattern we are in will give us storm after storm, but the bigger story may soon be the frigid cold... Coming up next blog!

-Scott Pecoriello