Daily update: Upcoming storms, pattern changes, and colder weather on the way

As I posted on my page "Wild about Weather" on facebook yesterday, I will start doing what I call "daily blogs" where I will summarize all the latest upcoming weather events in the Northeastern United States. The blog will be posted around this time every day, since I'm very busy earlier on, and this will give me an opportunity to get a good glance at all the latest data coming in. So without further or do, lets get started.

The models have been very inconsistent lately, so the long range forecast has become very challenging. Even the short range forecast will soon be difficult, since it doesn't look like the models are getting a better grasp on the storm as they move closer. We'll start out with our teleconnections:

NAO:



Once again, I'm liking the trend, but as you can tell, the NAO likes to trend negative and then do a nice little flip for us that drives us all nuts! So we'll have to continue monitoring it very closely, but look for consistency, and not jump to any conclusions past 3-5 days out. RIGHT NOW, however, it looks like the NAO takes a dive. Keep in mind folks, the NAO does not tell us whether or not we will be able to get the cold and the snow. Rather it tells us whether or not we will be able to get blocking and sustained cold in our area. SO you CAN have the cold and the snow without the NAO. If you want the sustained cold and snow though, you really do want the NAO to take a dive...

PNA:



The PNA will take a dip negative, after being the only teleconnection to favor the cold and snow in our area. HOWEVER, we look out a little bit further, and it begins to trend back positive. Again though, I don't like looking at these models past 3-5 days out. Interesting to see however.

AO:



The AO has been EXTREMELY positive over the past few weeks, and has been doing some of the same fakes the NAO has been doing. Once again though, it looks like it will FINALLY be taking a dive over the next few days, which is certainly a good sign, and a start. We even see some models try and take it negative. OVERALL though, you can see, a lot of models remain positive, so the AO isn't really in our favor at this point.

REMEMBER: The teleconnections are our WILD CARDS. They do NOT dominate the overall pattern and set up, although they are able to help gear a pattern or set up a certain way. The weak east based La Nina will speak for itself soon enough, and as I have explained in other recent blogs, a lot of times that kind of set up can spell out a VERY cold and snowy Northeast.

Now to the short term and the models...

Hopefully all of you noticed the cool off today, and the temperatures will continue to dive through the night, and through the rest of the week. Most areas will be experiencing highs in the 40's come later in the week. That all ends though early next week, ahead of a complex system that will make its way across the country.

This is only one models depiction of the storm, but is a set up that I agree with for next week. We see temperatures rocket ahead of the system as it begins to move eastbound and strengthen.



The storm, while it may drop a decent snowfall for portions of the midwest, will only get interesting once it gets its act together... Here's the GFS's depiction again of the storm as it reaches the Northeast. You can see how quickly, and how strong, the cold air rushes in behind the storm, changing the heavy rain rain over to heavy wet snow into the PA and NY area.



As the storm reaches the coast, enough cold air is pulled in to change heavy rain over to heavy wet snow all the way over to the I-95 corridor...



Euro's depiction of the same storm around the same time...



Like I've said in the past... I do not believe this is a big, nor a widespread, snowstorm. I can see though, an area either in the interior, or even closer to the coast, picking up a very quick, wet, and heavy accumulating snowstorm. May not even be a lot of snow, but it may come down very fast and very hard. We'll have to watch this for sure over the next couple of days...

As we move ahead into the long range, we can see my "pattern changing storm" move through around the 8th-12th. The GFS has a rather weak storm that drops snow across the midwest and ohio valley, but doesn't do all too much to the Northeast. What it does do though, is make it COLD. Enough so, that it would be considered a pattern changer in my book, with a change to MUCH colder weather and better opportunities for snow.



Here's the Euro's idea around the same timeframe. Even less of a storm, but more aggressive with the cold.



Just a few more ideas that the GFS has that I like to throw around since we know it is OCCASIONALLY on spot with the long range forecast. Here's a possible system around the 14th with the cold air still in place.



Beyond that, we can see the 18z GFS keeps it simple with sustained cold all the way out to the 16th of December? Is this reasonable? Sure. Can I guarantee something like this to take place? Of course not... But it's certainly something to keep in mind!



To wrap it all up, we have a very difficult pattern ahead of us to forecast, and I will do my best to stay true and update often about all the latest changes. It may seem like I am relying heavily on just one run of the GFS, but that model explains best visually what I think will take place over the next few days and into the upcoming weeks. Don't worry... I am taking into account other models and factors! Enjoy the last day of meteorological Fall, and get ready for Winter tonight at 12 am!

-Scott P.

Quick update on everything

1. Snow has began to break out across Michigan and will continue to do so over night and into the morning. Snow will be very heavy and wet at times, and I can see some areas in south central Michigan picking up a quick 8 or 9 inches of snow before all is done. As we move further east into our neck of the woods, some very heavy rains have set up and are now feeding off the Atlantic. Very slow moving as well. Flooding looks like it may become a problem for eastern PA if it is not already an issue. I can see someone in that vicinity picking up a quick inch or two of liquid, causing the usual street, creek, and small river flooding. Snow across the south is all done, but it was quite an event. Nearly a half a foot of snow was picked up in some areas. Snow was reported so far south, that if you wanted to see snow from the Florida panhandle, all you would have to do is drive 20-30 miles north!

2. We'll all notice a cool down tomorrow, but it won't be too significant. About a 10 degree drop from today. Comfortable. Throughout the week the temperatures will continue to dive off until we reach early next week where I can see a shot of warmer air coming ahead of what looks to be a complicated frontal system. This storm needs to be watched, but again, I don't see it being a widespread snow event. HOWEVER, I can see how some areas get a quick burst of heavy wet snow behind the storm that drops down a quick accumulation. This storm will be the one to really drag down some cold air. Enough that I would consider it a pattern changer.

3. The second week of December may actually feature highs not reaching the 40 degree mark, or maybe not even the 35 degree mark, across the big cities (Philly and northward). VERY chilly weather. Certainly the coldest of the season. Old man winter will no longer be knocking on the door, rather he will have opened it. None the less, it looks to remain sunny through much of that week UNTIL we swing around to the 11th, and we see our first potential for a WIDESPREAD snow event. Mmmmhh... Didn't I mention about a weak ago the possibility of a major storm between the 8th and 12th??? And a pattern change around the 10th???? Interesting eh???

4. Very long range, but that storm around the 11th (The real pattern changing one) looks like it will bring a brief warm up behind it... But what's behind that...? Well, let's just say, that cold may beat the cold that is coming the 2nd week of December. And is likely to bring more snow potential, and really get us into the swing of things for the 2011-2012 winter season... That's the latest from me!

Warmth in the east to finally cease?

Good afternoon folks! I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and are ready to get back to the weather! A lot will be changing in the upcoming days and weeks, and it looks like we will finally be able to get rid of this pattern that some of us enjoyed, while others of us wanted for it to end as soon as possible. Well, those of you who want the warm and dry weather, enjoy the next 48 hours, because you may not see this kind of weather for a while.

It looks like a cut off low will form and move northward bringing heavy rain to the mid sections of our country, while the Northeast gets more showery type rain that has the potential to be heavy at times. Overall, it will not be a big deal. We may see some mixing precipitation off to the west and around the higher elevations, but generally it will not do much. The same cannot be said for areas to the south and west of us. Up to 4 inches of rain is possible where the rain is heaviest and most persistent.



Further south however, this system may bring some unseasonal snow and wet accumulations, especially toward the state Tennessee and surrounding areas. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the TN mountains picked up some decent snow. As we move toward Michigan though, the potential is there for more significant snow, as cold air quickly rushes in and meets up with heavier precipitation. Right now I see the potential for 6+ inches of snow around the Lansing area and places to the north and west of Detroit. Detroit itself may see some decent snowfall as the cold air wraps into the system. It's possible, not very likely, that areas as far west as Chicago see some snow before all is done.



After the system passes, temperatures won't change too much. Cooler than the temperatures that we're currently experiencing, but still above average. It's after the system completely passes and a weak clipper system passes through that we see a strong low form up toward Canada, driving in cold air. The weak clipper system will bring snow showers to some areas, but it certainly won't be widespread. This will help get the initial cold air into the Midwest and Northeast, but won't keep it in those areas. It's the low up in Canada that will break the "warm/cold" pattern. The low will be strong enough to keep the cold air constantly being driven into the United States, like shown in the graphic below.



This cold is unrelated to the NAO, PNA, AO, and the rest of the teleconnections. So those of you who are unsupportive of this cold due to the teleconnections, need to take the time to look at the set up with the cold air next week, and the week after. In fact, the strong low pressure system up in Canada will move slow enough to keep the cold air in place possibly all the way through the end of the first week of December. The potential is there for a possible system to work it's way across the country and into the northeastern United States while this cold air is in place. And you all know what that spells... Yes... The ingredients are there for a snowstorm around the 6th or 7th of December, before the cold air may no longer be available to us. All we need is those ingredients to come together. So while I don't see a major widespread snowstorm taking place around this time period, I do see how a decent snowstorm takes shape. This of course will be something to watch over the next week.

Here's a look at the GFS's depiction of the potential storm around the 6th and 7th:



And here's a look at the Euro's depiction of the potential storm around the 6th and 7th



Both similar ideas of a storm basically being suppressed down to the south while the cold air continues to invade the north. It wouldn't be far fetched to have some of, or a lot of, that moisture move northward into the colder air and make for a nice snowstorm somewhere in between. Just something to think about as we see more and more runs of this storm come in.

Now above I mentioned the possibility of the colder air being cut off sometime after the first week of December. And I do believe in that. We may see a warm up between the 8th or 9th of December and the 12th or 13th of December. It's in between those two time periods that I see the potential for the "pattern changing storm" to take place... yes... the one I have been talking about since the beginning of October. Now I have gotten a lot of questions about my confidence and questions regarding the possibility that this pattern change, and/or storm does not happen. That is ok. It happens. I still remain confident and optimistic about both of those events, but if one, or both, were to not take place... well then it's part of weather and forecasting, and is what I love about this complex field of science! It is often unpredictable! And if it does take place? Great! I was able to pick up on the patterns and clues behind this long range forecasting, and hopefully people will be bright enough to see that. But enough about the ifs and silly questions... Back to the weather...

The "pattern changing storm. Just because I expect it to change the pattern to more of a wintry one, does not mean we are all going to see a major snowstorm. It is likely to contain snow, but not necessarily widespread. Probably more of an interior event if I had to take an early shot at it. The strong system will move through and bring in a rush of cold air behind it. That will get us into a true pattern change in my belief. One that folks who don't follow the weather will even be able to take note of. In fact... It is possible we go through a very cold, and even snowy, period between around December 10th right up until Christmas time.

Here's how the 12z GFS thinks the system works out around the 12th and 13th.




Over the next several days and weeks though, the teleconnections will become a major part of my forecast. They will tell a lot of whether or not my forecast will come together. We NEED the AO to go negative, the NAO to go negative, and the PNA to stay positive. We've seen a lot of wacky things out of the teleconnections over the past several days, so we need to wait for consistency in order for us to say what these wacky teleconnections will do next. That will tell the tail of the winter.

So over the next few days, keep all of this in mind, and don't get too crazy about the upcoming winter yet. We need to wait until around the 10th before we really start getting hyped over for the winter season of 2011-2012. Enjoy the next couple days of weather! They won't last for long!

-Scott P.

A mild winter in store, or snow galore?

Good evening folks! I'm glad you are reading this blog tonight, because I want to take you through my current thoughts about the upcoming 2011-2012 winter, and the recent outburst of winter being a "no go". Now I'm not exactly sure why the people who have no back up to their forecasts, are putting out especially mild winters for the Northeastern United States, nor do I care. What I do care about is making sure the public knows what kind of winter to expect based off the latest models, trends, patterns, and "wild cards".

Now before I go any further, this is very important. I am not, nor will I ever, put down or "bash" an individual meteorologist, or a company. But what I will do, is give constructive criticism on this blog, whether they see it or not. I feel it is important for people to know both why I disagree with this company or individual, and where I personally believe they went wrong in there forecast, but I at no point do I believe it is ok for myself or anyone to critique them to the point that their forecast is completely put down, as well as their profession. With that out of the way, lets get started!

There have been a number of experts who also insist on this Winter being especially mild for the east, and feel that a good portion of the Northeast will see these warm temperatures way into the start, and possibly the middle of the winter season. How do they know this, and why are they so confident? Easy answers. They do not know, and they only appear confident. I'm trying to recall the last time a major company or forecasting network, or EVEN a professional individual was able to call an upcoming winter. Now you'll always have these nuts who have what I like to call a "golden gut", and are able to call a long range forecast way ahead of time with little or no backup, so those are the only exceptions. But Lets take last year for instance.

Here's accuweather's first shot



Second shot...



Farmers Almanac



And finally, a map made by an individual forecaster



Hopefully I have made my point clear that VERY few people were able to get last years forecast correct. Now I know I'll hear arguments about how last year was an exception, and that the NAO "happened" to go severely negative and thats what cause all the crazy blocking that flooded cold air and harsh storm into the Northeast and up the coast. I don't want to hear that. It should have been an option, at the least, and that option should have remained open. The point is, last years winter was absolutely historic with the major cities like NYC getting more than 200% of their normal snowfall. It doesn't look like a lesson was learned though.

Take a look at some of the forecasts for this year.

Henry Margusity of Accuweather's winter forecast



Accuweather's current winter forecast



A zoom in on our region of accuweather's current winter forecast



Farmers almanac's winter forecast



So hopefully from this, with maybe the exception of Henry's map, you can see the overall trend is NOT an historic winter like last years. But, for those keeping up with my page and Henry's page, you probably Henry has backed off of a snowy and cold Northeast. Now time to break it down, and tell you why I believe this winter we will be seeing the potential for another historic winter, or if not, another very significant winter.

Let's start with our La Nina.

Right now we have an EAST BASED La Nina, and I personally believe that's the way it will stay over much of the winter season. The La Nina is also weak. An East Based Weak La Nina...? That right there is like an equation for a harsh winter full of cold and snow for the Northeastern United States. Curious of another year when we saw an east based weak La Nina? How about 95/96, one of the harshest winters on record in the Northeast. Here's more or less of what an east based weak la nina will look like, although the map below is really more of a typical la nina.



While this is not my current winter forecast, this will weigh a lot in my official winter forecast that comes out on December 11th. Folks a lot of the facts are here, they are just either unknown or overlooked by many. Now we get into teleconnections again.



Take a look at the NAO. It's been trending more and more negative, and finally has now sort of "leveled" out. Meaning, it has become more consistent. No more real flip flopping. I like the direction it is heading in, and at this rate it would go pretty well with my forecast for a pattern change right around December 10th (which by the way is still being forecasted, and was put out in October!). Even if it doesn't turn out that way, the NAO may not go negative until late December, but the point is, it will eventually. And with that, we get the return of blocking, and with the PNA on the rise, before you know it we're really in business. As for the AO... It's wack right now... I'm waiting for it to settle down and come to at least SOME kind of consensus before really discussing it... Now I realize a lot of you don't understand this teleconnection stuff, so below I made it easier for you!

~Regarding the paragraph above~

NAO: Important things to know. If it is negative, we get the cold and snow in the east. Positive? Warmth.

PNA: If it's negative we get warmth in the east and it's cold out west. Positive and we get the cold in the east and the warmth out west

AO: Similar to the NAO. If we see it go negative, we're in the cold and snow business.

*It's important to note though, that none of these can do their job alone, and sometimes not even 2 of the 3. It's a group effort!

Now to wrap things up. I was doing some research the other day, and actually discovered something. OFTEN, the year following a strong La Nina, will be even colder and snowier than the previous year. NOT saying this will happen. But it is definitely something to keep in mind. And hopefully after all of this I have changed a lot of your minds about the upcoming winter.

Have friends and family that don't believe we're going to see a harsh upcoming winter? Simple. Send this link to them! And remember, you can always find the latest at my weather page on Facebook, "Wild about Weather".

Folks, we are in for another harsh winter that consists of cold and snow. Don't listen to these warm claims yet. And trust me, if I see any change, I will let y'all know! But for now, my forecast stands as is. Enjoy the rest of your evening, and have a wonderful Thanksgiving. And remember, my OFFICIAL 2011-2011 WINTER FORECAST COMES OUT ON DECEMBER 11th. THAT WILL BE THE BIG ONE!

-Scott P.

November 19th through January 1st

Well if you are reading this, it means you found my blog! Before having my Facebook page, "Wild about Weather", I used to update just about everything on here. Then of course I found the Henry Margusity page, and my updates on here lessened, and then finally when founding my own page, I stopped updating on here completely. Well that's going to stop. I will begin updating on here again, but only when there is something really important coming up, that I can't fit on my Facebook page. For example, my final winter update coming out on December 11th will be posted here. Anyways, enough about myself and my blog... Let's get to the weather.

Interesting pattern going on, right? Wrong. The current pattern that we are in consists of just about everything that a weather fanatic hates. It is a very flat and progressive pattern, that features numerous fronts sweeping through the eastern third of the nation, bringing warm weather ahead of the fronts, wet weather while the fronts pass overhead, and then brief cold shots once the fronts move through the area. The problem is, these are cold SHOTS. 24-48 hours after the cold weather sweeps through, we begin to warm up again, and the pattern starts right from the beginning and happens again and again. Why are we in this pattern and when is it going to end? Well I hope to answer those questions here today.
Let's start with why we are getting our current setup. This is mostly due to teleconnections that can sometimes be your best friend... but right now is our biggest enemy.









































































So let's quickly go through each of these individually. We'll start with the NAO:
Here's my problem with the NAO, and the NAO's problem itself. The NAO has it's own, "forecasting pattern". These models will show the NAO taking a dip negative 10-15 days in advance. Then we all jump onto the cold train, talking about how the NAO is about to take a dip negative in 10-15 days, and then we are in business. Then 3-5 days go by, and all of a sudden, the NAO looks like it may go neutral rather then negative. Then 3-5 more days go by, and we see the NAO is shown positive all of a sudden by all the models. And it is the same thing again and again. Look at the chart and start with October 16th and go all the way to December 3rd or 4th. You will CLEARLY see the pattern. There is a rise to +1 and then a dip to neutral, and then a rise to +1 and dip to neutral, and the same thing keeps happening. WE NEED that NAO to go negative before we start getting excited about the cold and snowy weather.

AO:
The AO is a similar story, and has similar effects on the eastern third of the nation when it goes negative. Not the same pattern though. The AO has been positive for a while and shows no real signs of going negative anytime soon. That's a problem. Just like the NAO, until we can see this dip negative, we are stuck in our current pattern.

PNA:

Oh the PNA. The only good news for the cold weather. Typically when we see a positive PNA, we get the cold weather to pump into the eastern third of the nation. As you can see from the chart, the PNA has been, and still is, very consistent in showing a positive read after the 22nd or 23rd of November. This normally would be very good, but will do nothing with a positive NAO and AO. Therefore, until we get those two to do something, the PNA will not matter.

Now that we have a good grasp on the pattern setup from now through early December, we can start talking about the upcoming storms, starting with our "pre-thanksgiving storm".

Pre-Thanksgiving storm:

Folks this storm is rather simple in my opinion... All snow is contained north of I-90... Maybe a little back end snow south, but not enough to make a note of it...



The next storm we begin to look at is toward the very end of the month. It looks like we'll see a very complicated storm track across the country MAYBE bringing some midwest backend snow, but even that looks rough at this point. This storm will likely be a MAJOR rain and wind maker for the Northeast. MAYBE some mountain and extreme interior snow, but again that looks rough as well. I've been watching this storm for a while now on the models, and while pretty far away, it looks like it may have at least SOME change in the overall pattern. It's possible we see a change in the STORM TRACK with this system, as it will do a lot of interesting things to the overall pattern. One thing it will NOT do though, is help drag in cold air. We need the teleconnections to do that (NAO, PNA, AO, etc.)

Those two storms are as far out as I want to go for now. In between these two storms though, there will be quite a warm up. The 24th through the 27th may be very warm and dry. Enjoy it while you can though, cause now we're going to start talking about winter and why people SHOULD NOT be worried about the current pattern.

We start around December 5th. The teleconnections should still be non conductive for any sustained cold. That means our pattern continues. I STILL REMAIN CONFIDENT WE SEE OUR PATTERN CHANGE AROUND THE 10TH OF DECEMBER. If I start seeing though, that the teleconnections don't favor that time period, I will have to change my forecast. Not to worry though. Last year we did not see sustained cold until later in December and we did not see our first snowstorm until December 26th! There is plenty of time folks.

What we need to focus on is these teleconnections. Take your minds off the models in terms of seeing if a winter pattern is coming in the long range. Even if it appears that way, like it does on the GFS, it will not verify unless we get those teleconnections to corporate. Once again, I expect that to happen around the 10th of December.

Hoping this might help:





Have patience my friends and enjoy this November pattern. It will not last forever! In the meantime, get ready for my official 2011-2012 winter forecast coming out on December 11th!