I never thought I'd be blogging about snow this late in the season... especially this much!

This is the third time that I have had to blog about a spring snowstorm for the tri-state area! Really an absolutely incredible season of snow that will not be soon forgotten. This storm is very different though. First off the storm is a nor'easter, which happens often in the month of March but not always into early april; normally this late in the season you'd expect a nor'easter with heavy rains and strong winds, but that also looks like it is not going to be the case. So you can see this is a fairly rare event, but believe it or not it has happened in the past.

Two good examples are the nor'easter's in 1982 and 2003. 1982 was a very rare event that left NYC with 10 inches of snow and parts of NY state with over 2 feet! Winds reached 60 mph, and power was out everywhere. It set many records in many places including Newark which received 13 inches of snow and then the next day set a record low of 19 degrees in the morning.

April 6th, 1982


The other example is April 2003, where 5-8 inches of heavy wet snow fell across the NJ area.



Will this go down on the list of rare April snowstorms? I would say at this point, yes. Reason being, models are actually coming to a somewhat fair consensus that I-95, or parts of I-95, may be in for a snow event. In fact, if everything goes "perfectly", this certainly has the potential to be a historical storm. This is my current thinking on the storm in terms of totals, but I'm sure a lot will have to be shifted and moved around.



Keep tune, for change is likely with this system; beware.

-Scott Pecoriello

Winter part 2 is here!

We really stopped winter right in the beginning of February, after being absolutely decked by snow through the months of December and January, with nearly record falling snow. After mid february, many announced winter over, but some (including myself of course) continued to hang onto the idea of a winter part two. I was thinking late February into March. But, turns out we hit record warmth during those periods! And I cannot believe I am saying this, but winter part two is still coming! Yeah, its March 22nd, and this new pattern begins... now! I am announcing that we are currently entering a stage that we haven't been in since the middle of march when we had back to back to back blizzards and snowstorms! And, it continues to look better and better for the tristate area in terms of snow. Now to the details on the next 2-3 weeks of "Winter".

Its pretty Ironic how the last couple days of winter actually broke record high temperatures across the entire tristate area, and then on the first official day of spring there was accumulating snow across the whole area. That was mother natures signal to everyone that winter was not planning to give up that easily. We're looking at a really classic winter set up going on over the next 2-3 weeks right into April. The -NAO is keeping plenty of cold air in place. In fact, the NAO hasn't been as negative as it is about to become since mid January! The positive PNA that is in place is also helping out quite nicely to give the area a good chance for snow.

It looks like we will be having our first storm coming through the area tonight into the day on Thursday! Still, around 12 hours away, there is a load of uncertainties. For now I must give it my best shot though.

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Now before anyone gets too excited or disappointed,I must say that this map was made yesterday, and is going to need quite a few tweaks to it, but it has the general idea. For example, I no longer think NYC will be receiving 4-6 inches of snow; 2-4 seems to be most reasonable at this point.

Details on the next storm should be introduced here on Thursday and Friday, and those days will also include details on the storm after that! The way it looks now is we will eventually see a major snowstorm take shape along the eastern seaboard.

-Scott Pecoriello