Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Friday, April 20, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
January 26th. That is the date that stands on the calendar. Winter season ending, right? No! That is one of the number one issues here. People are stuck on this calendar. I'll tell you, the date and time of the season is very important, but only if you actually know the significance behind the date and truly know where we are! Too many people don't. The halfway mark of winter, on this calendar that everyone obsesses over, is right around February 7th. That's right! We're not even halfway there, and people already have their mind set towards spring. This whole sun angle nonsense, and not being able to get snow as we get into February could not be further from the truth (Just finished a semester in Astronomy, trust me, I know). Yes, the sun angle becomes an issue as we get into late March, but that doesn't mean it can't snow. It just means it doesn't stay around as long. So what exactly can we expect as we head into February and why? Let's look at... Everything!
Oh the absolutely lovely teleconnections. The king of our false alarms this winter season. Will they ever prove themselves correct, or bring us the cold and snowy weather? Take a look...
I guess we should start off with the most important and influential of them all. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation. I'll start off by saying, tomorrow there is a good chance this graph will look nothing like it does now. The NAO changes, and changes and changes. Only trust it in it's short range! Lesson learned! So if we focus on that, the gist of this is, it is going downwards. Dropping. In fact, it's probably going to briefly dip negative. Maybe even for a slightly extended period of time. After that though, its up in the air again. I don't even want to look at it, so stop yourselves now. Overall, I am pleased with the NAO. Looks more conductive then it has in the past for colder and snowier weather.
You can say this particular teleconnection has been on my list of favorites over the past several days. The Arctic Oscillation. Negative! We just need to keep it that way! Well that looks safe for at least the next week, and remember, we don't look past a few days on these teleconnections. Only thing that I am thinking while looking at this is, it's negative. Again, conductive for colder and snowier weather
Last but not least... My new favorite? I guess you can say that, considering looking at where it is going. Positive. The models are very consistent now with a very positive PNA. This is going to help with the colder and snowier weather is well.
So I want to take the teleconnections and put a big old check next to them in terms of conductivity for colder and snowier weather.
The force partially responsible for driving our teleconnections, and further determining what kind of storms we may be seeing, is our MJO. So lets take a quick look.
A lot of interesting things to note about our MJO above. One, look where it has been in the past. Hanging around phases 4, 5, 6, and the COD. Tisk, Tisk. That is very un conductive for a wintry set up here in the Northeast. Now take a look at where it currently is. Phase 5. Again, very un conductive for cold and snowy weather here in the Northeast. Now, take a look at where it's going. The GFS ensembles seem to want to take it into phases 6, and then 7. Not a bad place to be, and definitely a better place then what we have seen. The question is now, will it verify? If it does... The snow lovers may just be howling. But that's a big IF right now. Watch it carefully.
Ok, now I'm not "obsessing" over this run of the GFS because it proves my point, and gives us a load of snow. I'm looking at it, analyzing it, and seeing if it makes sense or not and why.
Yes, I am totally and completely aware this is the Long Range, 18z GFS models. Some of the worst weather accuracy. But for observing the teleconnections, and where the MJO may be heading, these solutions actually aren't insane. A diving NAO, a -AO, a +PNA, and an MJO potentially heading into Phase 7. That usually screams an east coast snowstorm. But, take this as a grain of salt. This will change, I promise. The question is, how much, and what will be the trends. I will focus on that in the coming days, but for now, it remains a sure mystery.
Now onto some of my own forecasting! Time to review my mid January outlook for the second half of January through February. For the most part... Success! Here it is again below.
So, let's hope for more success in the future, but as you can see, the general forecast has been on target. From everything with the above normal temperatures and warming, to the snowstorm we had last weekend. If the forecast continues to be on track, you can expect that colder and snowier February we've been talking about... I know some of you are crossing your fingers!
But just like to every story (including winter stories) there are two sides. So now for the dreaded moment. The warm side.
We'll start with our SOI values. Tisk, tisk, they're shooting up. Fast. This generally means warmer weather, so it's not what we want to see exactly.
Another long range look that goes against a cold and snowy February, include some of our climate models and very long range models. Here's a quick glance at a very long range model that runs off of our European model. That's nearly 60 degree temperatures around NYC during the middle of February... Ouch.
I feel it's appropriate to end with our "False Alarms" because that is what has been getting to people. Here's just a few of them.
False Alarm #1
False Alarm #2
False Alarm #3
For those who have been following these lovely teleconnections... You know there are more examples...
So what to say now? It's a battle. A big one. And it will be very interesting to see who wins. There are plenty of variables pointing to the second half of Winter 2011-2012 being very cold and snowy, and variable pointing to the exact opposite! Enjoy your evening, and try not to let your head hurt with all of this! More updates in the coming days, so be sure to stay tuned to "Wild about Weather"!
Friday, January 13, 2012
Believe it or not, this winter is already off to an historic start. There has never been a recorded winter where New York City has not seen accumulating snow in November, December, and January. It is January 13th, so we have roughly two weeks left of January. Will New York City set a record? It's possible, but not likely. Taking a glance at all the models over the past several days, there is support for at least one or two smaller systems to affect the New York City before the month of January goes out. Now whether this is an inch of snow or 5 inches of snow, will remain a mystery for a long time, but I'll keep an eye on the dates between 18th and the 22nd. That's when I see the possibility of a clipper system, they may end up even being a miller B. But again, this is mostly speculation at this point.
Here's what the clipper system looks like on the 18z GEFS ensembles
So what does the rest of the winter season hold? Well the easiest way to answer that is... It remains a mystery! But of course, I won't leave you guys hanging there! I am not throwing in the towel on this winter, nor do I plan to. Yes, so far this winter has not gone the way I had planned, and not the way most planned, but that does not mean we are all screwed for the rest of the season. We have more than 60 days left of this winter season, and we have been stuck in this crappy pattern for months now. Although it has altered slightly at times, it remains the same overall pattern. Horrid. The NAO has remained steadily positive, for the most part, for months now. This is almost unheard of. So just historically speaking, you can see a pattern change to colder and snowier weather is already in support.
Just a glance over our current teleconnections helping to drive our pattern.
Interesting. The NAO is actually negative! Something we haven't seen in a while, and might help to explain why it is going to be so cold this weekend. But look where it goes next. Another bump positive. Something we have seen since October and November. That helps explain the warmth coming during the second half of next week. And finally, long range says back towards negative... but when hasn't it showed that?
AO still looks good. Its going neutral or negative, and will support cold air. I have a feeling we see this change though give such consistent model guidance. Warm, warm, warm... and Warm! So, we'll have to watch this. Although, really the models usually catch onto the teleconnections, rather than the other way around, so we might want to watch what happens here with our AO.
And finally our PNA. Negative, and expected to stay that way. This will help drive the waves of warm into the east, and help to prevent sustained cold air. It is a battle between the teleconnections, which right now, don't seem to really agree.
But enough with this talk of a pattern change! I'm sure you're all done with it, as well as I. The change to colder and snowier weather will probably not be a dramatic one, rather it is a slow change. Once again though, I am done with pinpointing dates and times, and how's and whats... It's just not that simple. Now lets take a look what the expect for the next month!
Here's my extended winter weather outlook... Enjoy!
January 14th - 16th =
Lake effect snow slows down and very cold continues to take over the entire region. High pressure moves in as temperatures slowly moderate, but remain quiet.
January 16th - 18th =
A storm moves in from the west and spreads light to moderate rain showers along I-95 and the suburbs. Temperatures are above average as the storm moves in. Areas to the north of I-90 can expect some wintry precipitation, while areas to the south remain mostly rain, but may begin or end as wintry weather. The low pressure moves north, and temperatures plummet once again.
January 18th - 25th =
Very cold air takes over the Northeast region, as the area dries out once again. A potentially weak clipper system moves into the area north of I-80. Scattered snow showers and flurries take over, and may briefly turn moderate the further east you go. Temperatures moderate once again though after the clipper system moves by, and the region is back to well above normal temperatures. A wetter and warmer pattern takes over.
* VERY LONG RANGE.. TAKE LIGHTLY! *
January 25th - 31st =
The warm and wet pattern continues for the region, with a better chance of wintry precipitation for the interior Northeast. Unlikely though. Watch the 29th-31st though. I do believe we have potential to see a good storm here. Whether it is rain or snow remains unclear, but I think we'll see in the coming days and weeks that timeframe is one to watch. Could be a snowstorm, as the pattern turns colder finally by the end of the month.
February 1st - 7th =
February may actually start off very wintry. The pattern (although I promised not to mention it) may actually truly break down here. Widespread cold across the entire county, as temperatures are well below normal. A line of storms looks to begin as well. Coastal storm after coastal storm moves up the east coast, potentially putting down widespread snowfall. The first one looks to come midweek.
February 7th - 14th =
Another coastal system may move up the EC during the beginning of the week. Temperatures are well below normal, as yet more system try and develop off the coast. More widespread snow is possible. The pattern continues into the third week, as cold and snow may be the theme finally.
So that's my current outlook. Folks, I have faith in February. Euro weeklies have already come out with a very cold and snowy pattern starting February 1st and lasting right through the 14th. Who know what happens after that. Again, historically this is supported as well.
Do not give up on the winter. For many, it has yet to begin, but it will... I have a strong belief that the folks throwing in the towel are going to be sorry they did. Remember, it only takes a period of less than one month to get snowfall above average, and winter to start up. One big daddy does it as well. No one can say for sure what will happen over the second half of winter, so stay tuned as we track it together. Have a good night!
Wild about Weather
Friday, January 6, 2012
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Our "terrible teleconnections" seem like they're maybe trying to redeem themselves. Take a look here at the teleconnections from the Climate Prediction Center. Looking fairly good for a pattern change.
So here's the gist of it. The NAO is going neutral or negative, the AO is going negative, and the PNA is going negative. NAO and AO are a check, but the PNA not so much. The -PNA will help drive the cold into the west rather than the east. Not worry though folks, looks like a -EPO may save us. The -EPO will help drive even colder air into the country. While not as much of a help, we will also have a -WPO; just further helping with the cold air! All of this may end up giving us a gradient pattern here in the Northeast. What's that? I-80 on northward will do well with the cold and snow, while south of there will struggle. Will this necessarily be the case? No. But is there a good chance? At this point, I'll say yes. All the negative teleconnections usually point towards a gradient pattern, so therefore things are looking good for that right now.
Look at the next 10-13 days. EPO goes negative.
Look at the next 10-30 days. WPO goes negative.
The only thing that might throw all of this off a bit is our -NAO. For once, this will be a good "throw off" for the snow lovers. The potential blocking may make for bigger storms, and therefore give much less of a gradient pattern. I still can't guarantee that areas south of I-80 will benefit from the blocking pattern still, but a much better chance. Our -AO and -EPO will really help to drive the cold air into the Northeast.... For the most part it should cover up the -PNA.
Hopefully all of you now get the idea that our teleconnections are really pulling through for us, and this is the happiest I have been with them in a while. Mostly because of our NAO! Finally looks to go negative! Who to thank? Yes, you knew this was coming. SSW.
The stratosphere is really warming up folks, and while it has been for a while, it is important to know that now we have the warmth spreading into more layers of our atmosphere (specifically further down in the atmosphere). Rapid warming at that. This is likely why we're seeing a lot of things heading into a more favorable direction for a pattern change.
Looks what's beginning to happen folks...
Before we get started on the details of this change in the pattern, let me clear my mind for everyone. I am not sold on this pattern change yet. Why? The models have yet to really catch on. We've certainly seen a shift to colder long range weather from them, but it is not yet good enough for me to hop on the snow train yet. I expect that to change in the coming days though. All of these variable should be picked up by the models soon enough.
Now to what you can expect from this change. Not a lot of detail on that unfortunately. Again, typically when we see the variables like they currently are, a gradient pattern is possible. So, small to moderate snow events I-80 on northward, with a "rip off" to the south. But again, this blocking may be good news. Larger storms that can ride up the coast with heavy snow and strong winds; a classic nor'easter. It's just a matter of getting the cold air or not, which I can't see why we don't with such a -AO coming up and a -EPO. The point I'm trying to make here, is colder and snowier weather for the Northeast looks to be on the way...
The harder question perhaps is when... I'm going to take a shot (like I have many times already this winter!) and say between January 10th and January 16th for a pattern change. A wide range? Maybe, but the point is the middle of January looks to be a good time range. Will it be a dramatic change in pattern? Not really, but certainly noticeable if we get the snow going.
Just a quick look at one more thing before I go! The MJO!
A mess! GFS ensembles are looking very messy today! The story looks to be the MJO heads into the COD (not bad for the pattern change) and then back into octet 6 (also not bad for the pattern change). From there it looks to settle in that area for a while. Hopefully, though, we see it begin to go into a class counter-clockwise spin around, and we get it to go into octets 8, 1, and 2. Probably not for a while, but maybe later on in the winter!
REMEMBER FOLKS! We're not even into the second week of winter! Plenty to go, and good news ahead. Goodnight everyone!
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Well, you can more or less thank the teleconnections for all the latest mild and rainy winter weather in the United States. The NAO has been positive, the AO has been positive, and the PNA has been positive. Where do you want these teleconnections for the cold and the snow in the Northeast? You want the NAO to be negative, the AO to be negative, and the PNA to be positive. So, the only teleconnection that has been cooperating, is the PNA. It's been solidly positive. Well... A flip is about to take place... It's one that makes me happy and upset.
The latest teleconnections (which I cannot post because I'm on vacation time!) look interesting. FINALLY we see the NAO go towards neutral or negative and the AO go towards neutral or negative! Good news, right?! Wrong. Normally I would be happy with this, BUT now we have to worry about the PNA. After having the PNA being the only one supporting snowy and cold weather in the Northeast, it too decides to go negative. Something that is not supportive of cold and snowy weather in the Northeast. So what happens now? Well we probably see blocking set up, and maybe even have some good storms set up along the east coast and Northeast, but I'm not sure we'll have support from the temperatures. If the AO really decides to go negative, I will be happier and then maybe the PNA won't be such a concern like it is right now for me. The AO usually supports very cold weather. But the negative PNA often is a signal for warmer weather, so it will be a battle between those two. We'll have to see who wins...
As for the MJO, I know people were starting to get excited about it going into octets 8, 1, and 2, but that no longer looks to be the case. There is still time for change, but right now I'm not very pleased with it. Rather then going into the correct octets, we see the MJO head into octet 6 (already partially in 6) and then briefly move into 7, before moving into the COD. Not a very good place to support a negative NAO. And after that? It goes right back into octet 4, and maybe even back into 5. But again, thats only if all of this verifies. There is still plenty of time for the MJO to shift about, maybe going into more favorable octets... Only time will tell though...
Right now we are at a state of battles between all these different variables. It will be very interesting to see which one of them will win out, and right now I really do not know. My hope is that we see the MJO do a flip in the COD and head back into octets 8, 1, 2, or even 3, OR we don't see it go into the COD at all, and it heads straight into 8, 1, 2, or 3. It would also be nice to see the PNA stay positive, but right now a lot of models agree we see it go negative. Trust me, I want the cold and snow as much as everyone reading this, but until I see things head more favorable for the cold and snowy weather, we need to continue watching and waiting. It will come sooner or later, it's just a matter of when!