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Thursday, October 14, 2010

Lots going on with our nor'easter...

You can still say the worst of the rain is yet to come... I'm paying extremely close attention to the radar right now for a couple of reasons... One, an extremely heavy band of rain and now probably thunder and some lightning too, has developed just to the west of the Connecticut border line, and in the last couple of images heavy rain was setting up to the south of Connecticut as well... The situation will only worsen with even heavier rain, maybe an inch or more per hour, will be setting up... I looked outside just a couple of minutes ago, and not a leaf shook... This is because the low right now is currently exploding with energy... A band of wind containing winds gusting around 50 mph is expanding around the center of the storm and won't reach land until maybe after midnight... That's when winds will become sustained at around 30 mph and gusts could reach or topple 50 mph... Now the period of 2-4 hours of both the rain and the wind will be the worst of the storm here in southern new England... this will occur right past midnight where the heavy rain will begin to taper and the strong winds will begin to pick up... tomorrow will be interesting though, because we'll have these bands of showers which could be moderate coming through the area with the strongest of the winds... This will cause it to look and feel like a tropical type system tomorrow... So now the affects... again beginning after midnight, we can expect trees beginning to come down due to the combination of moist grounds and strong winds, as well as power outages from the strong winds... in fact the outages could keep occurring into your Saturday as the winds will remain strong... So through the night the worst of the rain is about to happen and then it will begin to taper but still be heavy at times with winds beginning to pick up between 25 and 40 mph, with gusts potentially past 50 mph... Just quickly a wind advisory is in affect for a lot of areas, as well as now flood advisories... Keep it here for more updates...

-scott pecoriello

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

BIG STORM ON THE WAY... EXCITEMENT BUILDING... well at least for me...

I meant to do a post a long time ago on this... In fact I got half way done with one about 3 days ago and then deleted it because I didn't have the time to finish... Anyways, if you can remember back to my last post, maybe a week or less, I said models kept trying to put out a weak front that would explode into an east coast monster... I also said that I agreed with the models that this would happen... Now I don't want to say, I told you so, but I told you so... At least the models did... A very good job on there part... So now to the details...
Currently this weak front is now entering the Ohio Valley... to me it already looks like a healthy system... The next step however is for a low to develop probably just of the coast of NJ... When it first develops there will be a blob of moderate to heavy rain, and almost no wind... This will be right around the Delaware area... As it moves to the northeast though, it will rapidly intensify and all of a sudden winds will start gusting around 30 mph in NJ with the blob of rain now larger, stronger, and more like a nor'easter... Once reaching the big apple it will be a monster of a system, you may even begin to pick up an eye like structure on radar... Looks like the center of the system will pass right over NYC... at this point the heavy rain and wind will have not only intensified, but will now be rapped around most of the storm... Conditions will be really bad... then the center of the system will move off to Boston where conditions will only get worse and then back inland as the storm begins to wrap up... Now a little thing with wrapping up... This is when the storm gives its last major punch of energy... So its possible a kick of very strong winds hit the big cities, in fact likely, after all the rain is done with... When the storm hit Maine though it may be at its strongest... another thing, yes you've probably heard the exciting new for the chance of some snow in the higher elevations... There's a good chance if it does snow, it will be whiteout, and a good chance of a short period of blizzard conditions... Only at the very end of the storm though, when it looks like a quick burst of cold air will come through... Some areas in the highest elevation may pick up a quick 3-6 inches!... With all this going on the outcome may be really bad... expect lots of power outages along with lots of downed trees... not only that but the roads will be a mess considering it is fall and all the leaves are changing and falling... This could be a very messy situation especially if you're traveling... Ok now to the very detailed local forecasts... just to sum everything up...

Washington DC: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 15-25 (gusting to 40)
Philly: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 20-30 (gusting to 45)
NYC: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-35 (gusting to 50)
Westport: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-40 (gusting to 55)
Boston: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 30-45 mph (gusting to 60)
Portland 2-5 inches of rain, winds 35-45 mph (gusting to 65)

That's it for now... check back tomorrow for lots of updates... just before I go, try to remember the remnants of Nicole 2 weeks ago... It probably going to be a similar storm wind wise, with less rain... But more of a combination... so pretty similar results... bottom line... big storm on the way...

-Scott Pecoriello

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Hurricane season beginning to wrap up... But not fast enough...



The models are at it again... And so is history... Typically the peak of hurricane season comes in September, and then things rapidly quiet down, but in mid october there is a second mini peak, where the number of storm increase, before decreasing for the final time...

So what are they showing? Well Otto has formed and is certainly a tropical storm, and even a strong one at that, but not going to do anything. It should continue on its Northeasterly track out to sea, maybe eventually affecting part of Europe as an extra tropical rainstorm.

But where the concern comes in is over the next 3-14 days and past that. Typically, as show in the graph at the top of your screen, this second peak occurs between october 10th and 20th, and that is exactly what is expected to happen. The next storm on this list is Paula... Models currently show energy off of Cancun that will kind of sit and turn for a couple days... Some models turn it into something and throw it south of Florida and out into the atlantic like Otto, and some show nothing developing and then way later maybe something comes up the east coast sort of related to the system, or just the systems engergy... But after that, the models go crazy... here's what I mean



I do believe the JMA model is over doing things, but still, 6 or more storms are predicted here... That is crazy... And you can see the one heading up the east coast...

And finally, before we go, models have been fairly consistant showing a new pattern taking place in the U.S. And that is the major fronts coming down from canada... This is typical for fall and winter, but, the waters are warm enough, and the energy in the atlantic is strong enough that one of these could develope and hang over the northeast for a while with heavy rain and strong winds so something to watch for as shown in the GFS... unfortunatly i can't copy that over to the blog, so you're going to have to look for yourselves if you want to view it...

-Scott pecoriello

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Storm still looks bad... good news, and bad news...

This is my current thinking... We're going to have a really long and kind of "disgusting" type storm... I think we'll have scattered areas that reach 3 or 4 inches of rain from certain bands setting up, and winds gusts probably reaching at least 45 mph over coastal areas... Now models are very un consistent still, but this is what they are currently showing... After Midnight tonight, and into tomorrow will be the bad rain, and wind, and then there will be a break in the action for tuesday and wednesday where it will just be nasty... light showers, wind gusts around 25 mph... Then on into Thursday the low will begin to re group just off the coast where the worst of the storm may come... Its really un clear at this point... I dont have too much to say other than watch out from Tonight to Thursday, where we may have a storm on our hands...

-Scott Pecoriello

Saturday, October 2, 2010

Storms looking worse and worse...

All though models currently show a storm not as bad as the recent one, it still may be a bad storm, and for some it could be worse than the last storm... but once again, the overall affect won't be as bad... at least thats how it looks now... I say that because compared to yesterday the models show a much stronger storm... Unfortunatley the storm is only 48-84 hours away, and still so many questions and confusions on the storm... Some show a monster storm with tropical characteristics, heading straight up the east coast bringing 2-4 inches of rain and again wind gusts potentially reaching 60 mph... Others show it only hitting certain locations, and other details that are not clear at all at this time... Just like with the other storm, some models are now showing a stream of atlantic moisture feeding into the east coast, and potentially a real tropical system which would be named ottow to the south of the first system... Most models bring it very close to the U.S. coast but then quickly shoot it out to sea... The track is not set in stone by any means so its possible it because a real problem mid to late week... So for now, there is likely going to be a nor'easter type storm developing tonight and hitting the northeast coast by monday or tuesday, with a stream of potential moisture feeding into the storm, and maybe even a tropical system on the southern end... So far, this storm looks it may be on track to be very similar to the last one...

-Scott Pecoriello

Friday, October 1, 2010

Monster Storm slowly moves away, but damage left behind... In the big picture, everything is far from over...

The storm was certainly both over exaggerated, and underestimated... East of NYC was supposed to get the rain much worse then we did, even though we still did get plenty of rain... Rainfall and some storm forecasts were well over exaggerated as well... What was not over exaggerated, but really underestimated were without a doubt the wind... Last night I thought my house was going to blow over from the winds where gusts certainly reached past 60 mph at times... Not only that, but the original forecast for the wind was only forcasted for 6-10 hours, meanwhile the wind picked up two days ago during the night time, and is still going on at my house with gusts past 45 mph... The high wind warning went in affect yesterday and ended 6 am this morning, which was a very off forecast, since winds went on howling for more than 2 days... However, I think lots of places were lucky with this storm, but maybe not with the next one...

Well some computer models show weak storms attempting to develop and either failing to do so, or just taking the weak systems off the coast... Now if the CMC or Canadian model is picking up on something then we could be in a whole lot of trouble... Last run showed a nor'easter or potentially a storm with at least some tropical characteristics hitting similar areas with a good amount of wind and rain, and then a major hurricane potentially moving up the coast for next weekend or late next week... At that point it will at least be in line with Florida... Then even before this major hurricane we have to keep an eye on the Caribbean for even more development for next week... Even if some models don't see two or three major storms coming up the east coast, the fact that they are picking up development of some kind tells us that we really have to keep an eye on a potential series of storms hitting the east coast starting as early as Mid to Early week next week...

-Scott Pecoriello