History in the making.

This week, anyone living along the I-95 corridor will experience a piece of history. For the first time in decades, a massive hurricane will move up the eastern seaboard, and reck havoc. This is no false alarm or scare like we've experienced in recent years with storm like Earl and Bill. This storm will likely cause damage to lively hood and property for over 55 million people. The costs could end up being in the billions in effort to try to repair the east coast. The most extreme of the storm will take place over eastern NC, southeastern VA, the Delmarva, NJ, southeast NY, CT, MA, and parts of NH and ME.

From the beginning, even before the storm became an invest, there were many signs this storm was going to end up giving the east coast a hard time. Models, especially the GFS, had the storm going over the same places run after run. Rarely do models become so consistent in the medium range, but in the long range? Never. As the storm drew closer and finally become an invest and eventually depression, other models joined the GFS. Soon most models consistently had a hurricane slamming the east coast. Once the storm became named, the track became even more apparent, but was not yet where it is currently. Irene seemed destined to slam into FL before riding slightly inland along the coast. Thats when the eastward trend began, and models showed the storm effecting FL less and less. Finally as Irene became a hurricane it became obvious the storm would cause minimal effects on the large peninsula. Models continued showing a dangerous hurricane fleeing up the coast, and meteorologists decided there was a realistic possibility of this becoming a major hurricane at some point. As the models shifted back and fourth east and west, Irene became a major hurricane, and it seemed SC was doomed. It seemed charleston was destined for disaster. But the eastward trend picked up speed, and models began throwing it off the coast, actually out to sea. People, including weather locals and nationals, began letting there guards down. Not only did it seem the Carolinas might be in the clear, but it seemed that way for New England too. Then nearly 24 hours ago, The models made a shift once again. This time... west. The storm was soon shown at its "worst case scenario" on many of the models. It seemed it was destined for Irene to slam into the banks of NC as a major hurricane, and then ramp up the coast only slightly weaker and destroy the east coast major cities. Something that hasn't been done in decades. Then only roughly 12 hours ago, the models went even further west, bring the storm up I-95, and seen as the potential to cause a flooding disaster. And now, only hours ago, it seems the trend began ever so slightly east again, making the "worst case scenario" even worse. As of current time, that path looks to skirt the NC coast bringing major hurricane conditions, and then slid up the coast ever so slightly over water, before slamming into the Queens are and then into the Bridgeport, CT area with potentially up to category 2 conditions. The scenario lets the storm keep its strength, go at a slow speed, and destroy the coastline off to its west.

So what's next? Well as we speak Irene is slamming the bahama islands with winds up to 115 mph, and gusts even higher. After weakening slightly due to an "eye replacement cycle", and some shear, it seems it will strengthen once again and most likely become stronger than ever before. We could have a category 4 hurricane with winds close to 135 mph and gusts upwards of 150 mph, within the next 24 hours as Irene enters an area known for rapid strengthening... the southern gulf stream.

What can areas expect? Well here's my take. Enjoy and please be safe.

East NC (not including outer banks): Winds: 75-90 mph, gusts close to 100, rainfall in excess of 6 inches, major damage potential.

Outer banks: Major hurricane conditions, winds greater than 100 mph, and gusts close to 130 mph, rainfall in excess of 8 inches, major to extreme damage is likely.

Southeastern VA: Winds 70-85 mph, gusts close to 95 mph, rain in excess of 7 inches, major damage possible.

Delmarva: Winds 75-90 mph, gusts close 100 mph, rain in excess of 7 inches, major damage possible.

Eastern PA: Winds 45-60 mph, gusts to 70 mph, rain in excess of 5 inches, damage is possible.

Western NJ: Winds 50-65 mph, gusts to 74 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, damage possible.

Coastal NJ: Winds 70-90 mph, gusts to 100 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.

Southeastern NY state: Winds 60-80 mph, gusts to 90 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.

Long Island: Winds 75-100 mph, gusts to 110 mph, rain in excess of 10 inches, major damage is possible to likely.

Southwestern CT: Winds 75-95 mph, gusts to 105 mph, rain in excess of 10 inches, major damage is possible to likely.

South central CT: Winds 70-85 mph, gust to 90 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage is possible.

Southeastern CT: Winds 65-80 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 5 inches, moderate to major damage is possible

Northern CT: Winds 60-80 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, moderate to major damage is possible.

Western MA: Winds 50-70 mph, gusts to 80 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, moderate damage is possible.

Eastern MA: Winds 55-75 mph, gust to 85 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, moderate damage is possible.

RI: Winds 60-75 mph, gusts to 90 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, moderate damage is possible.

Philadelphia: Winds 55-65 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches is possible, some damage to moderate damage is possible.

NYC: Winds 65- 85 mph, gusts to 95 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.

Boston: Winds 55-75 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, some damage to moderate damage is possible.

Remember stay safe, and have a plan now, before the storm rolls in. Check back here for more updates throughout the entire weekend.

Active

Yes, I did break my promise to update regularly, but now I will try my absolute hardest to keep this blog up to date!
So we have a lot going on in the Atlantic with technically four systems buzzing about. We have tropical storm Harvey which has literally just made a landfall in Belize with 60 mph winds, and unimaginable rainfall. There should be a lot of flooding going on for central America and Mexico, not only today, but into early next week. Once that is all set and done with, all eyes we'll move right to what is now invest 97L.
That title should change soon as some serious organization seems to be happening with the system. This will be the one that will try to make a run at the US with what looks to be at hurricane status. It's possible to likely that it actually tries to make a run up the east coast, so that will be certainly something to keep a close eye on in the coming days.
And lastly, we have both invest 98L and invest 99L which both look to be fish storms as of now 99L actually broke off from 98L, so they should take very similar paths, even though I think we should still keep an eye on invest 99L as it may go south of 98L.
That's all for now... Should be a very interesting couple of days and even weeks coming up... Enjoy!


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Get ready!

After a long break, I plan to start regularly updating again as I see things are about to get very active in the tropics. Slowly but surely, sneaky areas of convection and waves are moving about in water that is very favorable for development. It would not surprise me one bit if we had more than one hurricane in the Atlantic next week. Right now I'm VERY interested in both invest 92L and 93L, and believe both will at least become named storms, with a fairly good chance they reach hurricane status for at least a time. With the Protection along the US coast ending next week, it seems almost destined that these two systems, and maybe more, will spell trouble for the US in the near future.


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A short and sweet update on Emily

There is no doubt that Emily is clearly getting her act back together, especially after this mornings disaster. Not only is Emily reorganizing, she is also growing in size. There's more... Her track. Emily continues on a more westerly track than originally anticipated, and it's messing with everyone including the computer models. It's beginning to worry me that more than 1/4 of the models I viewed today, take Emily into the Gulf. If I was south FL... I would certainly be concerned...


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Quick update on Emily

The satellite imagery of Emily remains very impressive, yet the actual storm itself remains very unimpressive, as it is yet to have sustained winds pass 50 mph. My assumtion on why it looks so impressive is that there is just an insane amount of convection associated with the storm. I still believe it has a shot at becoming a hurricane before reaching Hispaniola, and it is clearly trying. Right now I believe the center of the storm will pass 50-100 miles east of the FL coast, and then basically stay that same distance, and follow up the coast. Meaning from FL to NC, there will be squalls of heavy rains and gusty winds. I do believe though, that the immidiate coast may experience more prolonged and heavier rain with stronger and more persistent winds. More updates to come tomorrow.

-Scott Pecoriello


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Emily

Yes I am updating at 1:30 am for what is now finally TS Emily! The latest satellite and infared images show very good organization with the storm. As I type, the northern Lesser Antillies are being pumbled by strong gusty winds, and unbelievable rain. Now that it has a concentrated center of circulation, there is a good possibility that some rather rapid intensification takes place. Emily should approach Hispaniola by sometime Wednesday, and it would not surpise me if it was a cat. 1 already. Now this is where everything is determined. If Emily is able to pass over extreme western Hati and extreme eastern Cuba, the system will stay in tact enough to re-intensify, and probably become a cat. 2 or even a very weak cat. 3. But if it passes directly over either island, it is likely to fall apart and either become or remain a TS, or just completely die off. Both are a possibility as of now, which has everyone on the east coast worried. It means the difference between scattered showers and windy conditions, and a full blown major hurricane. Right now southeastern FL should have the most concern. That's all for now.

-Scott Pecoriello


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It's been a while...

After an extremely long break I hope to finally begin updating again! Well since we're entering the beginning of August, things should become very active on this page, as well as in the Atlantic Basin. The next 2 months are typically the most active parts of hurricane season, and there are already signs of that. This time of the year a line of storms string off the African coast into the warm waters of the Atlantic, where they form into some of the strongest storms ever seen! These hurricane pose the biggest threat to life and property across both the carribean islands and the United States. I like to call this the "African Train Parade". And it's already begun!

I am confident that by this afternoon we will have a tropical depression about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antillie islands. Shortly after, this TD should become TS Emily. Emily should remain at tropical storm status as it clips the Lesser Antillies, Puerto Rico, Jamaca, the Dominican Rep. and potentially eastern sections of Cuba. As of now I see flooding rains and gusty winds, but nothing disastrous. It's once turning northward towards FL and the Bahamas where I have my concerns. Not only does it threaten both of those areas, but it may also strengthen into a hurricane at that point. There is a good chance it goes just inbetween both the Bahamas and FL, with the possiblitly of a landfall in either place. After that it may very well skim the entire east coast up to NC, where at this point I would say it will take a curve east, and head out to sea, but even that is up in the air at this point. Eastern FL, and the Bahamas should be most concerned at this point.

That's all for now, expect another update on both the tropics, and severe weather around 2:00 pm today!

-Scott Pecoriello


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