Joe Bastardi is certainly one of my favorite meteorologists, and I always hope that he is correct on his forecasts (which he usually is), but being the huge snow lover that I am, I really hope his forecast is not correct for a big thaw come January, and not much of a winter. With that said, he does not deserve any kind of crap for his forecasts. It is nearly impossible to predict certain kind of storms and weather patterns, and he does an incredible job of accurately doing so. His blog today talked about how he was getting lots of nasty comments, emails, and even blogs due to the blog he posted on the storm. Something to do with him not predicting something about the western side of the monster snowstorm that slammed the I-95 corridor. You really got to give the guy a break, first off he was the only one who predicted the storm after everyone else switched the idea to an out to sea storm. Second he was right when he said this was one for the east coast. NYC picked up 20 inches of snow. Finally, although it really wasn't exactly my definition of a "snowy pattern" it certainly had a blockbuster storm included in it (almost 2), and absolutely freezing temperatures. His forecast in november called for a freezing record breaking December. So there is no reason he should get anything negative said about his forecasts. Now back to the patterns. Some interesting ones seem to lye ahead.
The snowy december pattern that Bastardi predicted, never really happened. I will admit though everything was there for it. The jet stream, the temperatures, even the moisture. The only problem was that there was not enough of the moisture. So his forecasting was dead on, however the moisture did not really work on his side, even though is certainly came through the other day. So now the next step in the winter forecast which has head me in a snow depression... His prediction of a thaw. January, the coldest month of the year for most, is predicted by Bastardi to be warm, and not good for storms to develope. Lately it seems like he is on a role with the monster snow in december, and now the recent model prediction of a that. But what the models are now showing is that it was be a short thaw, so I can breath a sigh of relief. Actually, the GFS shows a pattern similar to december at least as far as temperatures go. Hopefully during this period we can get some storms to come by! Before I go I would just like to say that overall I think the GFS model handled this storm the best, and handled the last one well too. My forecast that I gave on the 24th was fairly off. 4-6 inches was predicted in NYC, and I thought I was over dueing it. I guess anything can happen with an east coast snowstorm!
-Scott Pecoriello
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Sunday, December 26, 2010
One to demolish the record books...
This storm is now going to be so monumental, it is likely it will go down in the record books as one of the biggest, and most dangerous blizzards in history of the tristate area. Three cities have now called states of emergency. Airports, and roads, are closing rapidly and all over the place. The highest wind gust recorded so far is Bridgeport, CT with a gust reaching 58 mph. Bands and Bands of blizzard condition type snow are setting up just slaming the same places over and over. It seems that Coastal and Northern NJ, Southeastern NY, CT, and MA, will see the absolute worse weather out of this storm. I will tell you I am confident that one of those areas will reach 36 inches of snow by time all is done. With that said I am once again forced to up my snowfall totals. I am not totally condifent with the new updates, but its my best guess at this point. Believe it or not, the storm is now forecast to do "a loopty loop"! Meaning it will just sit and spin over the same areas for an extended period of time. This is why 3 feet of snow is not out of question. And the fact that every couple hours they up the snow by about 5 inches. The matter of the fact is that we could see an additional 10-15 inches on top of areas like NYC who have 6-8 inches on the ground making totals 16-23 inches. And you have to keep in mind that different bands are going to set up in different places at different times. Widespread power outages will just become more widespread as the night continues. Millions will be without power by the end. It is possible we see damage with this, especially along the coast. The potential is even there to see hurricane force winds. Honestly, this is not hype on the storm. This is the real deal. Enjoy the map, and stay safe!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Blizzard forecast just getting worse and worse... Snow map is in!!!!
Finally I was able to make a snow, and even a wind map, and these are my current and maybe last thoughts on the storm... Enjoy!!!!
The bulls eye of this storm has shifted, and is now basically from NYC to Boston, right along that I-95 corridor where that potential for up to 2 feet is there. It seems in Providence enough warm air will come up with the storm that rain will mix in, which is why it is no longer the bulls eye. I am very confident though, that someone will pick up 2 feet of snow in the corridor. Now as for the winds. There is now a blizzard warning in affect for millions and millions of people across the I-95 corridor. Its not so often that we get a blizzard warning around here, especially in the city. The winds could potentially reach 60 mph with this storm, which would really make the storm plain out destructive.
So a real crazy Christmas storm on our hands, and if all goes right, this could easily be one for the records. Unfortunately, one again, it looks like I will be missing this storm, unless by some outside chance our flight is cancelled tomorrow morning which is a possibility. I don't want to hope that would happen, but it would be pretty perfect if instead my flight was maybe rescheduled to first thing Tuesday morning, but of course no guarantee on that. That's it for now. Enjoy the rest of your Christmas evening.
-Scott Pecoriello
The bulls eye of this storm has shifted, and is now basically from NYC to Boston, right along that I-95 corridor where that potential for up to 2 feet is there. It seems in Providence enough warm air will come up with the storm that rain will mix in, which is why it is no longer the bulls eye. I am very confident though, that someone will pick up 2 feet of snow in the corridor. Now as for the winds. There is now a blizzard warning in affect for millions and millions of people across the I-95 corridor. Its not so often that we get a blizzard warning around here, especially in the city. The winds could potentially reach 60 mph with this storm, which would really make the storm plain out destructive.
So a real crazy Christmas storm on our hands, and if all goes right, this could easily be one for the records. Unfortunately, one again, it looks like I will be missing this storm, unless by some outside chance our flight is cancelled tomorrow morning which is a possibility. I don't want to hope that would happen, but it would be pretty perfect if instead my flight was maybe rescheduled to first thing Tuesday morning, but of course no guarantee on that. That's it for now. Enjoy the rest of your Christmas evening.
-Scott Pecoriello
Blizzard potential becomes more likely as storm draws closers.... Major changes to my snowfall forecast!
Well as of last night, NYC was expected to see flurries and snow showers sunday and some accumulating snow sunday night, and then snow ending on monday with 1-3 inches of snow in NYC according to Weather.com... However overnight almost all models shifted to what I would call a worse case scenario. The storm will track far west bringing a likely full on blizzard to the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston, likely to affect millions and millions of people. The potential is there for those I-95 cities to see a foot or more of snow by time is all done. Now it is the timing that is frustrating. I have a flight out of NYC at 7 AM tomorrow morning. As of now flurries and snow showers will be around most of today, and then stop before a steady snow starts during the very early morning hours of tomorrow. The question is what time will the conditions really get bad enough for flight cancellations. My hope is that they don't start canceling tonight. It is likely though, that at some point the I-95 cities will nearly be shut down as wicked strong winds hit along with the snow creating basically an all out blizzard. Now where is the hotspot for snow? Well my guess right now is Providence RI, where it is possible that 12-18, maybe more, inches of snow crush the area with winds gusting past 40 mph. The storm seems to be tracking close enough for a mix of rain and snow to hit the cape and islands, bringing down some of the accumulations. Now the total will also depend on how much the storm bombs out at the end. If it bombs out to an extreme, which is a possibility, you can expect each snowfall forecast to be raised about 5-8 inches from what it was. If it goes by fast enough, not really expected, the totals can be lowered a good 1-3 or 2-4 inches. So here are the current snowfall totals as of now... ENJOY!
Caribou- At this point it is very hard to make a prediction on caribou based on what the storm does up north. A good guess may be a good 4-6 inches, potentially a little more or less. Very windy at times. Heavy snow is possible along with the winds, making blizzard conditions possible.
Bangor- Again, it is very hard at this point to predict past the I-95 corridor, but my best guess is 6-10 inches of snow along with extremely gusty winds, making it a good chance for blizzard conditions. Travel will be a major problem.
Portland-Still hard to forecast, I believe a good 7-11 inches of snow is in order for the area. The winds will be very gusty at times, making it almost likely for blizzard conditions to take place. The area will be impossible to get through at a time as the storm begins to bomb out over the atlantic.
Boston- More clear now, boston has a good chance at seeing 8-12 inches of snow. It is possible that Boston does get more than that, but the system may track close enough to cause a mix of rain and snow at times, lowering accumulations from being more than a foot. Still very strong winds are possible, making blizzard conditions likely. The city may be ultimately shut down for a time as a full on blizzard comes through.
Cape Cod- It seems the system will track close enough to bring a good amount of mixing into the precipitation. This will certainly lower accumulations, but still heavy snow will fall at times as the storm moves by on the back side. A good 3-5 inches is still likely to fall along with very strong winds, creating periods of blizzard conditions, especially on the back side of the storm.
Providence- As of now, it seems providence will be the bulls eye of this storm. Current accumulation forecast could be anywhere from 1-2 feet of snow! Again more or less is possible. The storm may not bomb out as much, or maybe bomb out more, but this is likely to be a target location. Winds will be very strong throughout, causing the area to likely just shut down, with a full on blizzard coming through the area. Travel will be almost impossible.
Hartford- Hartford will be a hard hit location with 8-12 inches possible. The potential is there for up to 14 inches of snow to fall. The winds will be gusting very strong creating whiteout, and blizzard conditions likely. The area is likely to be impassable during the worst of the storm, with the potential for the area to also be basically shut down at times.
NYC- Being a major travel area for leaving and coming, NYC will have major problems. At this point it seems 8-12 inches of snow is in order for the area, with potentially up to 14 inches of snow, if all goes right. Winds will batter the area. At some point the airport is likely to shut down. When that is remains a mystery for now. The heavy snow and strong winds will likely create an all out blizzard affecting millions in the area. The city will become impassable at times, and travel will have major difficulties.
Philadelphia- Philly has a good chance at seeing a good 6-10 inches of snow. The wind will just make everything worse, causing the city to potentially shut down at some point as all out blizzard conditions come through the area.
Washington- 3-5 inches of snow is likely in store for the capital city as the storm moves through. Winds will also be strong at times causing border line blizzard conditions. The city will become a hazard to travel to and from at times, and also if you are passing through the area.
I believe this forecast is going to do well in terms of accuracy. I think generally at some point or another, the tristate area will basically shut down as a result of the blizzard. Just be ready for in and around a foot of snow for the area, with winds gusting upwards of 40 mph, creating whiteouts, and blizzard conditions. As for today, the northern branch of the system will create a really beautiful christmas day, as you can expect perfect flurries on snow showers. Just enough to make a real christmas feeling. Enjoy your day! And get excited for a blizzard!
-Scott Pecoriello
Caribou- At this point it is very hard to make a prediction on caribou based on what the storm does up north. A good guess may be a good 4-6 inches, potentially a little more or less. Very windy at times. Heavy snow is possible along with the winds, making blizzard conditions possible.
Bangor- Again, it is very hard at this point to predict past the I-95 corridor, but my best guess is 6-10 inches of snow along with extremely gusty winds, making it a good chance for blizzard conditions. Travel will be a major problem.
Portland-Still hard to forecast, I believe a good 7-11 inches of snow is in order for the area. The winds will be very gusty at times, making it almost likely for blizzard conditions to take place. The area will be impossible to get through at a time as the storm begins to bomb out over the atlantic.
Boston- More clear now, boston has a good chance at seeing 8-12 inches of snow. It is possible that Boston does get more than that, but the system may track close enough to cause a mix of rain and snow at times, lowering accumulations from being more than a foot. Still very strong winds are possible, making blizzard conditions likely. The city may be ultimately shut down for a time as a full on blizzard comes through.
Cape Cod- It seems the system will track close enough to bring a good amount of mixing into the precipitation. This will certainly lower accumulations, but still heavy snow will fall at times as the storm moves by on the back side. A good 3-5 inches is still likely to fall along with very strong winds, creating periods of blizzard conditions, especially on the back side of the storm.
Providence- As of now, it seems providence will be the bulls eye of this storm. Current accumulation forecast could be anywhere from 1-2 feet of snow! Again more or less is possible. The storm may not bomb out as much, or maybe bomb out more, but this is likely to be a target location. Winds will be very strong throughout, causing the area to likely just shut down, with a full on blizzard coming through the area. Travel will be almost impossible.
Hartford- Hartford will be a hard hit location with 8-12 inches possible. The potential is there for up to 14 inches of snow to fall. The winds will be gusting very strong creating whiteout, and blizzard conditions likely. The area is likely to be impassable during the worst of the storm, with the potential for the area to also be basically shut down at times.
NYC- Being a major travel area for leaving and coming, NYC will have major problems. At this point it seems 8-12 inches of snow is in order for the area, with potentially up to 14 inches of snow, if all goes right. Winds will batter the area. At some point the airport is likely to shut down. When that is remains a mystery for now. The heavy snow and strong winds will likely create an all out blizzard affecting millions in the area. The city will become impassable at times, and travel will have major difficulties.
Philadelphia- Philly has a good chance at seeing a good 6-10 inches of snow. The wind will just make everything worse, causing the city to potentially shut down at some point as all out blizzard conditions come through the area.
Washington- 3-5 inches of snow is likely in store for the capital city as the storm moves through. Winds will also be strong at times causing border line blizzard conditions. The city will become a hazard to travel to and from at times, and also if you are passing through the area.
I believe this forecast is going to do well in terms of accuracy. I think generally at some point or another, the tristate area will basically shut down as a result of the blizzard. Just be ready for in and around a foot of snow for the area, with winds gusting upwards of 40 mph, creating whiteouts, and blizzard conditions. As for today, the northern branch of the system will create a really beautiful christmas day, as you can expect perfect flurries on snow showers. Just enough to make a real christmas feeling. Enjoy your day! And get excited for a blizzard!
-Scott Pecoriello
Friday, December 24, 2010
GFS, AccuModel, JMA, NAM now on board for major blizzard... other models... not so much
I just got a new computer, but I can't figure out yet how to do maps on it, so for now I'm just going to list what they show. I haven't figured out how to paste pictures here either, so for now no graphics either. I am going to write exactly what each model portrays, starting with the order that accuweatherpro has it. Enjoy!
AccuModel:
Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Little wind.
Bangor- less than an inch. Snow showers. Some wind.
Portland- 1-2 inches. Snow. Wind.
Boston- 3-5 inches. Moderate snow. Windy
Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy
Hartford- 3-5 inches. Snow. Wind
NYC- 2-4 inches. Snow. Windy at times.
Philadelphia- Less than an inch of snow. Few snow showers and flurries. Little wind.
Washington- Less than an inch or no snow. Flurries, some snow showers possible. Little wind.
COAMPS:
Caribou- Less than 1 inch. flurries and snow showers. Some wind.
Bangor- little or no accumulation. Flurries. wind.
Portland- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind
Boston- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Windy.
Cape cod- 1 inch. Snow showers. Very windy.
Hartford- No Snow. Cloudy. Wind.
NYC- No Snow. Cloudy. Windy
Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.
Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.
NAM:
Caribou- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy.
Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy
Portland- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy
Boston- 18-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
Cape cod- 30-36 inches. All out Blizzard. Very Windy
Hartford- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
Philadelphia- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy
Washington- Less than 1 inch. Flurries and Snow Showers. Some Wind.
CMC (Canadian):
Caribou- less than an inch. Flurries and snow showers. Little wind.
Bangor- less than an inch. Flurries. Some wind.
Portland- No snow. Cloudy. Wind
Boston- less than an inch. Flurries. WInd
Cape cod- Less than an inch. Flurries, and snow showers. Windy
Hartford- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.
NYC- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.
Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind
Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Windy.
ECMWF:
Caribou- No snow
Bangor- No Snow
Portland- No Snow
Boston- 1-2 inches. Snow showers. Windy
Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy
Hartford- Little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind.
NYC- No snow
Philadelphia- No snow
Washington- No snow
GFS:
Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Wind.
Bangor- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Portland- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Boston- 16-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
NYC- 12-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Washington- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
JMA:
Caribou- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Portland- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Boston- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 14-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Washington- 3-5 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.
Now the models are crazy. All over the place. One shows 3 feet, the next shows no snow... So i tried my best to make up my own forecast. A consensus forecast. Enjoy!
My forecast:
Caribou- 1-3 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.
Bangor- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Portland- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Boston- 7-11 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
NYC- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 2-4 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.
Washington- 1-2 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.
I'm interested to see which model comes the closest to being correct and how my forecast does. The models were so "everything" that really my forecast is all the models snow totals averaged together, to find my totals, so my forecast could easily be off by a lot, but it may be the most accurate. I DONT KNOW! I'm just so confused. And It's weird how off they are from each other when the storm is 2-3 days away. I'm not sure whether to say get excited or wait for another one. Looking at the long ranger, it seems we're going to have a warm up period around New Years, and then back to cold, but dry. Not many storms are in the near future other than this one, and the warm aired one which looks to be rain. I hope you all have a happy and safe christmas! Get ready for whatever is coming...
-Scott Pecoriello
AccuModel:
Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Little wind.
Bangor- less than an inch. Snow showers. Some wind.
Portland- 1-2 inches. Snow. Wind.
Boston- 3-5 inches. Moderate snow. Windy
Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy
Hartford- 3-5 inches. Snow. Wind
NYC- 2-4 inches. Snow. Windy at times.
Philadelphia- Less than an inch of snow. Few snow showers and flurries. Little wind.
Washington- Less than an inch or no snow. Flurries, some snow showers possible. Little wind.
COAMPS:
Caribou- Less than 1 inch. flurries and snow showers. Some wind.
Bangor- little or no accumulation. Flurries. wind.
Portland- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind
Boston- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Windy.
Cape cod- 1 inch. Snow showers. Very windy.
Hartford- No Snow. Cloudy. Wind.
NYC- No Snow. Cloudy. Windy
Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.
Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.
NAM:
Caribou- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy.
Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy
Portland- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy
Boston- 18-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
Cape cod- 30-36 inches. All out Blizzard. Very Windy
Hartford- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy
Philadelphia- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy
Washington- Less than 1 inch. Flurries and Snow Showers. Some Wind.
CMC (Canadian):
Caribou- less than an inch. Flurries and snow showers. Little wind.
Bangor- less than an inch. Flurries. Some wind.
Portland- No snow. Cloudy. Wind
Boston- less than an inch. Flurries. WInd
Cape cod- Less than an inch. Flurries, and snow showers. Windy
Hartford- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.
NYC- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.
Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind
Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Windy.
ECMWF:
Caribou- No snow
Bangor- No Snow
Portland- No Snow
Boston- 1-2 inches. Snow showers. Windy
Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy
Hartford- Little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind.
NYC- No snow
Philadelphia- No snow
Washington- No snow
GFS:
Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Wind.
Bangor- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Portland- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Boston- 16-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
NYC- 12-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Washington- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
JMA:
Caribou- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Portland- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Boston- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 14-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Washington- 3-5 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.
Now the models are crazy. All over the place. One shows 3 feet, the next shows no snow... So i tried my best to make up my own forecast. A consensus forecast. Enjoy!
My forecast:
Caribou- 1-3 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.
Bangor- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Portland- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Boston- 7-11 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Cape cod- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.
Hartford- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
NYC- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.
Philadelphia- 2-4 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.
Washington- 1-2 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.
I'm interested to see which model comes the closest to being correct and how my forecast does. The models were so "everything" that really my forecast is all the models snow totals averaged together, to find my totals, so my forecast could easily be off by a lot, but it may be the most accurate. I DONT KNOW! I'm just so confused. And It's weird how off they are from each other when the storm is 2-3 days away. I'm not sure whether to say get excited or wait for another one. Looking at the long ranger, it seems we're going to have a warm up period around New Years, and then back to cold, but dry. Not many storms are in the near future other than this one, and the warm aired one which looks to be rain. I hope you all have a happy and safe christmas! Get ready for whatever is coming...
-Scott Pecoriello
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Christmas Blizzard looking better and better
Just a quick update because I have a lot of work... The Blizzard looks good on the models but no guarantee it will stay... The models will probably go on and off with the storm, so the end result will be hard to decide... So for now I'm going to show you what the European and Canadian models look like vs. the GFS... I think you'll find it quite interesting, as it looks like we will have a big storm on our hands come this weekend... where, and how much snow are we looking at remains a mystery, but it looks like we could be spending some extra time with our families since we may be snowed in for the holidays... Just something that I have noticed with the models and forecasts is it is shifting toward the late saturday, all day sunday into monday scenario for the tristate area... This is bad and good for me... If it hits on sunday, I get to witness the storm, but my flight on vacation is completely cancelled, and if it hits monday, my flight may just make it, but i miss out on a blizzard... So either way there are some consequences, and im sure it will be that way for a lot of people...
Sunday, December 19, 2010
First potential snowstorm fails, but many, many, more to come... Including a Christmas blizzard?!
So the first potential snowstorm was an absolute failure. The day after I put up my snow map all went dead on the storm, and all the models agreed the storm would form and sit way off the coast. But, believe it or not we will still get snow from the system, probably sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. The storm will pull just enough of its energy into Maine, that a backlashing storm will begin. Maine can see up to 10 inches, and locally a foot in some places, while the storm will lash a general 3-6 inches across the rest of Maine, and into Vermont, New Hampshire, and even parts of MA. I would not be surprised if we saw 1-3 inches all the way down to the tristate area, so look out for that as early as Tuesday evening, and potentially into early on Thursday morning. But we have much more important things to talk about and I'm running out of time.
The pattern is picture perfect... That is for a snow lover. We have an incredible, record breaking amount of moisture feeding from well west of Hawaii, all the way into the state of California and Nevada. This insane stream of moisture will continue to feed across the country with records breaking everywhere. Now here is where we come into play, from this moisture it is possible that we see 2-4 big storms along its path. The storms will stream right into the Mid Atlantic (some south of the mid atlantic, some north) and then bomb right off the coast. Now how do we know this? Well taking a look at just the satellite picture, clearly portrays the stream, and then looking at the models we see the first of these storms come... CHRISTMAS DAY!!!! We have the potential to see something that we haven't seen since 2002, and before that, 1969!!!! Now could this be just like the last storm where it looks like a significant blizzard and then ends up being nothing? Yes, it could be, but the chances are higher with this storm. Reason is because all the models are on this one, and its coming from the west, not gathering in the south, so it has to exit off the coast. So it is likely at this point we will see at least a decent storm in our area Christmas day, if not a potentially walloping storm on Christmas, so keep it here!
-Scott Pecoriello
The pattern is picture perfect... That is for a snow lover. We have an incredible, record breaking amount of moisture feeding from well west of Hawaii, all the way into the state of California and Nevada. This insane stream of moisture will continue to feed across the country with records breaking everywhere. Now here is where we come into play, from this moisture it is possible that we see 2-4 big storms along its path. The storms will stream right into the Mid Atlantic (some south of the mid atlantic, some north) and then bomb right off the coast. Now how do we know this? Well taking a look at just the satellite picture, clearly portrays the stream, and then looking at the models we see the first of these storms come... CHRISTMAS DAY!!!! We have the potential to see something that we haven't seen since 2002, and before that, 1969!!!! Now could this be just like the last storm where it looks like a significant blizzard and then ends up being nothing? Yes, it could be, but the chances are higher with this storm. Reason is because all the models are on this one, and its coming from the west, not gathering in the south, so it has to exit off the coast. So it is likely at this point we will see at least a decent storm in our area Christmas day, if not a potentially walloping storm on Christmas, so keep it here!
-Scott Pecoriello
Thursday, December 16, 2010
East coast blizzard on the way?!
Blizzard?! That is right!! The talk of an east coast blizzard is quickly spreading around meteorology stations around the country. This could be the first major accumulating snowstorm of the season for many across the I-95 corridor, and it may be a classic nor'easter with winds howling past 50 mph, along with 1-2 feet of snow!! But then again, it could completely miss, but the details are coming in...
I'll tell you one thing, I am getting very excited, and very hyped up about this storm. First things first. The European model has an incredible blizzard on the table for Late Saturday through Wednesday!!!! If this were to be correct, Washington D.C. could pick up 2-4 inches of snow, Phily could pick up 5-8 inches of snow, and then NYC to around Boston or just southwest of Boston, could see 1-2 feet of snow along with winds gusting toward 50 mph. However, if the NAM were to be correct, we could see virtually no snow anywhere besides maybe extreme coastal areas of ME. And of course the in between would be the GFS weather model which has about an inch or two in D.C., 1-3 inches in Philly, 3-5 inches in NYC, and in Boston a monster 2 foot snowstorm because this time it wouldn't change over to rain like in the European, but still either way you look at it, it seems Boston will be the target city with this one... Here are my current thoughts, which I'm going to show through my first real snow map of the season, not snowfall,snow map...
This map is more then likely to change by time the weekend rolls around, which isn't that far from now. Tomorrow is already Friday. All I can say is a big storm is on its way. At this point though, the impacts hold a lot of uncertainty...
I'll tell you one thing, I am getting very excited, and very hyped up about this storm. First things first. The European model has an incredible blizzard on the table for Late Saturday through Wednesday!!!! If this were to be correct, Washington D.C. could pick up 2-4 inches of snow, Phily could pick up 5-8 inches of snow, and then NYC to around Boston or just southwest of Boston, could see 1-2 feet of snow along with winds gusting toward 50 mph. However, if the NAM were to be correct, we could see virtually no snow anywhere besides maybe extreme coastal areas of ME. And of course the in between would be the GFS weather model which has about an inch or two in D.C., 1-3 inches in Philly, 3-5 inches in NYC, and in Boston a monster 2 foot snowstorm because this time it wouldn't change over to rain like in the European, but still either way you look at it, it seems Boston will be the target city with this one... Here are my current thoughts, which I'm going to show through my first real snow map of the season, not snowfall,snow map...
This map is more then likely to change by time the weekend rolls around, which isn't that far from now. Tomorrow is already Friday. All I can say is a big storm is on its way. At this point though, the impacts hold a lot of uncertainty...
Monday, December 13, 2010
Suprise Snow!!!!
I think I am more excited than anyone else for what started at around 6 pm and could continue into at least tomorrow morning... It was certainly a surprise, and definitely had some luck involved in it... All of a sudden at 6 pm, an outburst of snow started around NYC and just expanded outward, with flurries as temps dived down past freezing... At first, for a good 3 hours of snow, nothing was sticking, but then the pace picked up on the snow and the temps got into the 20's, so now we have a good half an inch to an inch of snow on the ground which was completely out of the blue... And its really hard to forecast this because this is almost like an ocean effect snow, as snow showers develop off the sound and atlantic... The snow looks like it will remain steady in this little patch of snow in the tristate, through around 4 or 5 am, and its possible that we have more snow tomorrow and wednesday... Believe it or not, up to 3 or even 4 inches of snow isn't going to be impossible to get out of this random piece of moisture... Thats it for now, enjoy the snow!!! Pray for no school!!!!
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Nice suprise snow last night, details on the monster storm are in, and the long ranger is getting me nervous!!!!
Last night was a classic perfect snow. My forecast that I put out two nights ago was pretty dead on, besides the fact that toward the end there actually was some organization, which I did not anticipate on. But non the less, lots of people picked up a nice dusting to close to a half inch of snow. It was crazy though, how accurate the future forecast was that weather.com put out. There radar was able to forecast 6 hours out that all the small little clumps of snow were going to come together and strenghten, which is something you couldn't forecast by just looking at the current radar output. But now the bigger news, the monster storm!!!
Sadly the storm that weeks out looked like an eastern seaboard storm, is now a complete midwestern storm where blizzard warning are now out. Someone out there is going to pick up 18 to 24 inches of snow ith gusts close to 60 mph! So a big one. As for us expect lots of heavy rain and wind starting after midnight tonight and last into after midnight and sunday before changing to a mix of moderate rain and snow, and then by monday we should get some nice snow showers and wind as temperatures rapidly drop to below freezing. The days to come after that don't be suprised if temperates don't get above 20 degrees for a high. as for the snow, its hard to tell for amounts. We may just have no accumulations or maybe we get enough cold air to come in to see a 1-3 inch snow total.
Just quick about the long ranger. I was just glancing at accuweather.com's 15 day forecast, and I saw mid and upper 40's and rain! We have to hope not. We want snow!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Sadly the storm that weeks out looked like an eastern seaboard storm, is now a complete midwestern storm where blizzard warning are now out. Someone out there is going to pick up 18 to 24 inches of snow ith gusts close to 60 mph! So a big one. As for us expect lots of heavy rain and wind starting after midnight tonight and last into after midnight and sunday before changing to a mix of moderate rain and snow, and then by monday we should get some nice snow showers and wind as temperatures rapidly drop to below freezing. The days to come after that don't be suprised if temperates don't get above 20 degrees for a high. as for the snow, its hard to tell for amounts. We may just have no accumulations or maybe we get enough cold air to come in to see a 1-3 inch snow total.
Just quick about the long ranger. I was just glancing at accuweather.com's 15 day forecast, and I saw mid and upper 40's and rain! We have to hope not. We want snow!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Friday, December 10, 2010
We'll take anything we can get!
All across the tristate area there are reports of flurries and even some snow showers... The air in the atmosphere right now is extremely dry, so even if the snow is on radar, lots of it isn't quite reaching the ground... But, over the last hour or two, a couple of the snow bands or squalls have been gaining a little bit of strength, which may continue here before all is done... A specific band affecting the tristate area looks like it will impact NYC and southern CT, from about 5:30- 8:30 with maybe a dusting... Its hard to tell whether or not it will hit and if it does, how much makes it to the ground... But we'll take anything that we can get!!!! This is only the second time I've seen snowflakes outside this season!!!! New detail is coming out currently about the storm this weekend and early next week... Looks like a big wind and rain storm for us, with some mixed precipitation likely on Monday... Any accumulations? Probably not, but its good to at least see some snow... Maybe next week!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Quick Update!
Just a quick update, I'll probably have a longer one tomorrow or Friday, which ever one works out better for me... I am deciding whether or not I should make changes for my snow map for Friday, and I most likely will... The system itself is going to pass way to the north in Canada, and the southern branch looks like it was sweep through the U.S., but I'm just not sure its going to be far enough south for snow in the tristate area... If something does come, it won't be organized enough to put up a snow map anyways, so for now I'm just going to say some flurries and snow shower will be possibly on your Friday, with Isolated areas receiving a coating to maybe an inch of snow... After that moves through the warm air will shove on in, and we actually may have a new problem... Who new that this storm could be a problem even if it doesn't snow... But let me tell you why I am excited...
The whole Tristate area may experience a really bad rain and wind storm on Sunday and Monday... We could be talking winds gusts easily exceeding 50, maybe even 60 mph... Along with rain of 1-2 maybe even 3 inches... So a monster rain storm... But now models are coming in agreement that the back side of the storm will quickly usher in frigid air in a short period, which is why I think we can still pick up a snowstorm or at least snow out of this one... So it may turn out to actually be one of my favorite storms... A Rain and wind storm and a Snow and wind storm... what could be better? An early guess of accumulations could be in the 2-4 inch range, but I don't want to get ahead of myself... And behind this storm we will be breaking records... Highs in the major cities could actually reach the upper teens!!!! VERY VERY RARE!!!!
Get excited!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
The whole Tristate area may experience a really bad rain and wind storm on Sunday and Monday... We could be talking winds gusts easily exceeding 50, maybe even 60 mph... Along with rain of 1-2 maybe even 3 inches... So a monster rain storm... But now models are coming in agreement that the back side of the storm will quickly usher in frigid air in a short period, which is why I think we can still pick up a snowstorm or at least snow out of this one... So it may turn out to actually be one of my favorite storms... A Rain and wind storm and a Snow and wind storm... what could be better? An early guess of accumulations could be in the 2-4 inch range, but I don't want to get ahead of myself... And behind this storm we will be breaking records... Highs in the major cities could actually reach the upper teens!!!! VERY VERY RARE!!!!
Get excited!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Its cold outside... but its still going to somehow manage to rain :(
Don't get me wrong, it is freezing outside with highs trying to get above the 32 degree mark all throughout the tri state area including NYC... I know its been a long time since my last update, and I left off with "Since it looks like winter is coming, it seems I will be updating regularly"... Well obviously that did not happen... What did happen however was some extreme cold air along with lake effect snow, of which some areas in the Tri state got some snow put down, but no more then a coating... I usually like to just focus on the tri state area for the weather, and let me be honest, I am usually hopeful for snow, but it just doesn't look like we're going to get a storm that leaves us more then an inch or two of snow at least until late next week, potentially even later than that... I was very hesitant about blogging over the past couple of days, whether or not I should tell everyone there is a giant storm coming, and that we may indeed get a giant Nor'easter with wind and snow in the tri state area, and good thing I hesitated, because it looks like things have flipped... Everyone was getting so excited about winter and snow that bloggers and meteorologists were all saying how there is a good chance we get a decent snowstorm along I-95 in the coming weeks, but of course it just had to change... my luck... So let's check out exactly whats going to happen...
First things first... we have a weakish clipper system coming on by that should reach the area by Thursday... My current forecast is that Thursday into Friday we will have some snow which will be exciting, but not a lot... and I'm happy to be posting my first snow/snowfall map of the season, although it is far from anything really interesting...
So you can see across the northern areas of the Tri state we can expect generally an inch or two, although there will be someone who picks up a good three inches of snow, so far some of you this could be a real accumulating storm... Just to the north of the city a good solid inch of snow is expected, maybe more of a coating toward the immediate coast where some rain may try to mix in as warm air tries to settles for our next storm... The city could see some snow showers, probably very wet snow mixed with some rain, some people may see a dusting of snow here and there, and then south of that just expect clouds with a sprinkle or a flurry...
Just a quick summary of the big storm because it is so far ahead, the storm will take place late this weekend, so late Saturday into Monday, and as of now a lot of rain and wind with this one as the low will be developing right on top of us bringing a lot of warm air quickly, and then probably snow showers and wind behind the storm with some small accumulations after picking up a good 1-3 inches of rain!!!! Yes, rain... can you believe all this cold air was for nothing... well, I'll just leave you with something... The air behind this big storm will be even colder then now!!!! And even more storms in the future... KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED FOR SNOW!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
First things first... we have a weakish clipper system coming on by that should reach the area by Thursday... My current forecast is that Thursday into Friday we will have some snow which will be exciting, but not a lot... and I'm happy to be posting my first snow/snowfall map of the season, although it is far from anything really interesting...
So you can see across the northern areas of the Tri state we can expect generally an inch or two, although there will be someone who picks up a good three inches of snow, so far some of you this could be a real accumulating storm... Just to the north of the city a good solid inch of snow is expected, maybe more of a coating toward the immediate coast where some rain may try to mix in as warm air tries to settles for our next storm... The city could see some snow showers, probably very wet snow mixed with some rain, some people may see a dusting of snow here and there, and then south of that just expect clouds with a sprinkle or a flurry...
Just a quick summary of the big storm because it is so far ahead, the storm will take place late this weekend, so late Saturday into Monday, and as of now a lot of rain and wind with this one as the low will be developing right on top of us bringing a lot of warm air quickly, and then probably snow showers and wind behind the storm with some small accumulations after picking up a good 1-3 inches of rain!!!! Yes, rain... can you believe all this cold air was for nothing... well, I'll just leave you with something... The air behind this big storm will be even colder then now!!!! And even more storms in the future... KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED FOR SNOW!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Snow to talk about... What Bastardi has to say...
It's been a long time since the last update, but not much has been going on weather wise... Hopefully everyone had a great thanksgiving, and if you live in parts of PA or even some of the big cities and suburbs, I hope you enjoyed the touch of snow during your thanksgiving. Finally it looks like our winter season will begin and I will get to update regularly as things become very active.
So here's the plan for the week of weather and how everything is going to play out... A developing storm is currently taking place in the middle portion of our country associated with a cold front... That should get cranking pretty quickly and will become quite a storm in the days to come... My current thinking is that the 540 line, or the 32 degree temperature line, will be far enough into the storm system that there will be a swath of snow on the back side... So areas like PA and into the Appalachians will probably see at the minimum some snow showers toward the back end of the storm, and likely even some small accumulations most likely in the 1-3 inch range... Everyone else will get a good heavy batch of rain and wind out of this one... Now once the storm is out of here the freezing air will seep in from Canada hopefully setting up the winter... Yes that is right; the storm this week seems to be the one that will keep the cold air around for the remainder of the season... This cold air will also set the stage for a potential storm.
Now there are multiple possibilities here... One, which is looking less and less likely, is that this storm becomes strong enough to have the southern branch of it become a separate storm once reaching the Atlantic seaboard... Then the models show it gaining rapid strength over the warm waters and swirling back at the east coast early next week, with what has the potential to be a fairly substantial snowstorm from NYC to Bangor... Now since this would be a rare event, we're going to put the idea aside from now... My current forecast is that instead we would get some kind of storm going, but it would back in a couple of flurries and snow showers; kind of like a taste of what is to come...
Another option which isn't so favorable either, is that we see a clipper system come down dropping some snow, and it gains enough strength once hitting the eastern seaboard to blow up and become a real storm, probably dropping a good dose of snow for all the major cities
Third option, which i hope doesn't happen, is the storm that branched off from the front curves slowly to the east coast and blocks out the clipper from reaching us, in a fashion so that no one really gets any snow.
Fourth option could be these two storms combine in such a way to have a real block buster snowstorm and have one of the largest snows of the season with snow from the major cities and coastal areas all the way inland... (I HOPE THIS HAPPENS)
And finally if none of this happens, or even if this does happen, we see a big storm developing for the second weekend in December where we could have a classic nor'easter of snowstorm
So a lot on the table here!!!! I think it's safe to say we can start getting excited for the winter season!!!! Now of all be to get me disappointed about the weather... IT'S JOE BASTARDI!!!!! Joe is always the one who even when all hope is lost in the models, he finds a way where we can still get a major storm, and lots of the time he ends up being correct!!!! His current forecast is between now and Christmas we should have a lots of cold and snow... BUT... afterwards toward January... NOTHING!!!! well not nothing, but either normal or below snowfall... He used the words "not much of a winter" !!!!!! So I'm just praying that doesn't happen, because i need the cold and snow to blog about and look forward to!!!! Unfortunately I can't say that he's wrong because he has some pretty far out forecasting models that I don't have, so he's more accurate than me with the long range stuff... That should be it for now... Keep checking back as these storms get closer and as winter approaches!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
So here's the plan for the week of weather and how everything is going to play out... A developing storm is currently taking place in the middle portion of our country associated with a cold front... That should get cranking pretty quickly and will become quite a storm in the days to come... My current thinking is that the 540 line, or the 32 degree temperature line, will be far enough into the storm system that there will be a swath of snow on the back side... So areas like PA and into the Appalachians will probably see at the minimum some snow showers toward the back end of the storm, and likely even some small accumulations most likely in the 1-3 inch range... Everyone else will get a good heavy batch of rain and wind out of this one... Now once the storm is out of here the freezing air will seep in from Canada hopefully setting up the winter... Yes that is right; the storm this week seems to be the one that will keep the cold air around for the remainder of the season... This cold air will also set the stage for a potential storm.
Now there are multiple possibilities here... One, which is looking less and less likely, is that this storm becomes strong enough to have the southern branch of it become a separate storm once reaching the Atlantic seaboard... Then the models show it gaining rapid strength over the warm waters and swirling back at the east coast early next week, with what has the potential to be a fairly substantial snowstorm from NYC to Bangor... Now since this would be a rare event, we're going to put the idea aside from now... My current forecast is that instead we would get some kind of storm going, but it would back in a couple of flurries and snow showers; kind of like a taste of what is to come...
Another option which isn't so favorable either, is that we see a clipper system come down dropping some snow, and it gains enough strength once hitting the eastern seaboard to blow up and become a real storm, probably dropping a good dose of snow for all the major cities
Third option, which i hope doesn't happen, is the storm that branched off from the front curves slowly to the east coast and blocks out the clipper from reaching us, in a fashion so that no one really gets any snow.
Fourth option could be these two storms combine in such a way to have a real block buster snowstorm and have one of the largest snows of the season with snow from the major cities and coastal areas all the way inland... (I HOPE THIS HAPPENS)
And finally if none of this happens, or even if this does happen, we see a big storm developing for the second weekend in December where we could have a classic nor'easter of snowstorm
So a lot on the table here!!!! I think it's safe to say we can start getting excited for the winter season!!!! Now of all be to get me disappointed about the weather... IT'S JOE BASTARDI!!!!! Joe is always the one who even when all hope is lost in the models, he finds a way where we can still get a major storm, and lots of the time he ends up being correct!!!! His current forecast is between now and Christmas we should have a lots of cold and snow... BUT... afterwards toward January... NOTHING!!!! well not nothing, but either normal or below snowfall... He used the words "not much of a winter" !!!!!! So I'm just praying that doesn't happen, because i need the cold and snow to blog about and look forward to!!!! Unfortunately I can't say that he's wrong because he has some pretty far out forecasting models that I don't have, so he's more accurate than me with the long range stuff... That should be it for now... Keep checking back as these storms get closer and as winter approaches!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Monday, November 8, 2010
Just as I had said...
Well what was my last bullet yesterday... The storm was likely going to be much worse then predicted due to the forecasts changing so rapidly... And what do you know, come today the headlines on the major weather sites and blogs and channels read, "Storm much worse than predicted"... Well I don't want to say I told you so, but I told you so!!!! In my home town where even I thought snow was at least a little bit of a long shot, we ended up getting a good half inch of snow, sleet, and ice! It was crazy to see... Later I even heard reports of snow as far south as Islip Long Island!!!! So temperatures will now begin to rebound, but the winds will remain fairly strong... Gusts hit 60 mph in some areas today, strong enough to issue a last minute wind advisory for many... So whats up next? Well a very quiet week ahead... maybe even two quiet weeks... But sometime mid to late month a major cool down is likely... And along with it more snow... In fact we could see the beginning of a new snowy, cold, and stormy patter come late november and early december... So something at least to keep the weather fans going through the upcoming weeks... That's it for now... Check back soon!...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Sunday, November 7, 2010
ITS BEEN TOO LONG... a big storm coming though...
Yes i know its been weeks but not enough time to talk about that... Out of no where models picked up on a major storm backing into new england just in time for the start of the week... So just some quick pointers with this one...
1. Lots of heavy rain and strong winds in Maine, with snow for the higher elevations...
2. Snow could reach all the way to southern new england where maybe a slushy inch can be picked up... It will be the first snow of the season for lots of people.
3. Winds will reach 30 mph in some locations with gusts potentially reaching 50 mph
4. Rainfall will be 1-3 inches which potentially 4 or 5 toward Maine.
5. This is such a last minute storm it is likely to be much worse than expected... So plan for a full blown nor'easter...
-Scott Pecoriello
1. Lots of heavy rain and strong winds in Maine, with snow for the higher elevations...
2. Snow could reach all the way to southern new england where maybe a slushy inch can be picked up... It will be the first snow of the season for lots of people.
3. Winds will reach 30 mph in some locations with gusts potentially reaching 50 mph
4. Rainfall will be 1-3 inches which potentially 4 or 5 toward Maine.
5. This is such a last minute storm it is likely to be much worse than expected... So plan for a full blown nor'easter...
-Scott Pecoriello
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Lots going on with our nor'easter...
You can still say the worst of the rain is yet to come... I'm paying extremely close attention to the radar right now for a couple of reasons... One, an extremely heavy band of rain and now probably thunder and some lightning too, has developed just to the west of the Connecticut border line, and in the last couple of images heavy rain was setting up to the south of Connecticut as well... The situation will only worsen with even heavier rain, maybe an inch or more per hour, will be setting up... I looked outside just a couple of minutes ago, and not a leaf shook... This is because the low right now is currently exploding with energy... A band of wind containing winds gusting around 50 mph is expanding around the center of the storm and won't reach land until maybe after midnight... That's when winds will become sustained at around 30 mph and gusts could reach or topple 50 mph... Now the period of 2-4 hours of both the rain and the wind will be the worst of the storm here in southern new England... this will occur right past midnight where the heavy rain will begin to taper and the strong winds will begin to pick up... tomorrow will be interesting though, because we'll have these bands of showers which could be moderate coming through the area with the strongest of the winds... This will cause it to look and feel like a tropical type system tomorrow... So now the affects... again beginning after midnight, we can expect trees beginning to come down due to the combination of moist grounds and strong winds, as well as power outages from the strong winds... in fact the outages could keep occurring into your Saturday as the winds will remain strong... So through the night the worst of the rain is about to happen and then it will begin to taper but still be heavy at times with winds beginning to pick up between 25 and 40 mph, with gusts potentially past 50 mph... Just quickly a wind advisory is in affect for a lot of areas, as well as now flood advisories... Keep it here for more updates...
-scott pecoriello
-scott pecoriello
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
BIG STORM ON THE WAY... EXCITEMENT BUILDING... well at least for me...
I meant to do a post a long time ago on this... In fact I got half way done with one about 3 days ago and then deleted it because I didn't have the time to finish... Anyways, if you can remember back to my last post, maybe a week or less, I said models kept trying to put out a weak front that would explode into an east coast monster... I also said that I agreed with the models that this would happen... Now I don't want to say, I told you so, but I told you so... At least the models did... A very good job on there part... So now to the details...
Currently this weak front is now entering the Ohio Valley... to me it already looks like a healthy system... The next step however is for a low to develop probably just of the coast of NJ... When it first develops there will be a blob of moderate to heavy rain, and almost no wind... This will be right around the Delaware area... As it moves to the northeast though, it will rapidly intensify and all of a sudden winds will start gusting around 30 mph in NJ with the blob of rain now larger, stronger, and more like a nor'easter... Once reaching the big apple it will be a monster of a system, you may even begin to pick up an eye like structure on radar... Looks like the center of the system will pass right over NYC... at this point the heavy rain and wind will have not only intensified, but will now be rapped around most of the storm... Conditions will be really bad... then the center of the system will move off to Boston where conditions will only get worse and then back inland as the storm begins to wrap up... Now a little thing with wrapping up... This is when the storm gives its last major punch of energy... So its possible a kick of very strong winds hit the big cities, in fact likely, after all the rain is done with... When the storm hit Maine though it may be at its strongest... another thing, yes you've probably heard the exciting new for the chance of some snow in the higher elevations... There's a good chance if it does snow, it will be whiteout, and a good chance of a short period of blizzard conditions... Only at the very end of the storm though, when it looks like a quick burst of cold air will come through... Some areas in the highest elevation may pick up a quick 3-6 inches!... With all this going on the outcome may be really bad... expect lots of power outages along with lots of downed trees... not only that but the roads will be a mess considering it is fall and all the leaves are changing and falling... This could be a very messy situation especially if you're traveling... Ok now to the very detailed local forecasts... just to sum everything up...
Washington DC: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 15-25 (gusting to 40)
Philly: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 20-30 (gusting to 45)
NYC: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-35 (gusting to 50)
Westport: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-40 (gusting to 55)
Boston: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 30-45 mph (gusting to 60)
Portland 2-5 inches of rain, winds 35-45 mph (gusting to 65)
That's it for now... check back tomorrow for lots of updates... just before I go, try to remember the remnants of Nicole 2 weeks ago... It probably going to be a similar storm wind wise, with less rain... But more of a combination... so pretty similar results... bottom line... big storm on the way...
-Scott Pecoriello
Currently this weak front is now entering the Ohio Valley... to me it already looks like a healthy system... The next step however is for a low to develop probably just of the coast of NJ... When it first develops there will be a blob of moderate to heavy rain, and almost no wind... This will be right around the Delaware area... As it moves to the northeast though, it will rapidly intensify and all of a sudden winds will start gusting around 30 mph in NJ with the blob of rain now larger, stronger, and more like a nor'easter... Once reaching the big apple it will be a monster of a system, you may even begin to pick up an eye like structure on radar... Looks like the center of the system will pass right over NYC... at this point the heavy rain and wind will have not only intensified, but will now be rapped around most of the storm... Conditions will be really bad... then the center of the system will move off to Boston where conditions will only get worse and then back inland as the storm begins to wrap up... Now a little thing with wrapping up... This is when the storm gives its last major punch of energy... So its possible a kick of very strong winds hit the big cities, in fact likely, after all the rain is done with... When the storm hit Maine though it may be at its strongest... another thing, yes you've probably heard the exciting new for the chance of some snow in the higher elevations... There's a good chance if it does snow, it will be whiteout, and a good chance of a short period of blizzard conditions... Only at the very end of the storm though, when it looks like a quick burst of cold air will come through... Some areas in the highest elevation may pick up a quick 3-6 inches!... With all this going on the outcome may be really bad... expect lots of power outages along with lots of downed trees... not only that but the roads will be a mess considering it is fall and all the leaves are changing and falling... This could be a very messy situation especially if you're traveling... Ok now to the very detailed local forecasts... just to sum everything up...
Washington DC: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 15-25 (gusting to 40)
Philly: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 20-30 (gusting to 45)
NYC: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-35 (gusting to 50)
Westport: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-40 (gusting to 55)
Boston: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 30-45 mph (gusting to 60)
Portland 2-5 inches of rain, winds 35-45 mph (gusting to 65)
That's it for now... check back tomorrow for lots of updates... just before I go, try to remember the remnants of Nicole 2 weeks ago... It probably going to be a similar storm wind wise, with less rain... But more of a combination... so pretty similar results... bottom line... big storm on the way...
-Scott Pecoriello
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Hurricane season beginning to wrap up... But not fast enough...
The models are at it again... And so is history... Typically the peak of hurricane season comes in September, and then things rapidly quiet down, but in mid october there is a second mini peak, where the number of storm increase, before decreasing for the final time...
So what are they showing? Well Otto has formed and is certainly a tropical storm, and even a strong one at that, but not going to do anything. It should continue on its Northeasterly track out to sea, maybe eventually affecting part of Europe as an extra tropical rainstorm.
But where the concern comes in is over the next 3-14 days and past that. Typically, as show in the graph at the top of your screen, this second peak occurs between october 10th and 20th, and that is exactly what is expected to happen. The next storm on this list is Paula... Models currently show energy off of Cancun that will kind of sit and turn for a couple days... Some models turn it into something and throw it south of Florida and out into the atlantic like Otto, and some show nothing developing and then way later maybe something comes up the east coast sort of related to the system, or just the systems engergy... But after that, the models go crazy... here's what I mean
I do believe the JMA model is over doing things, but still, 6 or more storms are predicted here... That is crazy... And you can see the one heading up the east coast...
And finally, before we go, models have been fairly consistant showing a new pattern taking place in the U.S. And that is the major fronts coming down from canada... This is typical for fall and winter, but, the waters are warm enough, and the energy in the atlantic is strong enough that one of these could develope and hang over the northeast for a while with heavy rain and strong winds so something to watch for as shown in the GFS... unfortunatly i can't copy that over to the blog, so you're going to have to look for yourselves if you want to view it...
-Scott pecoriello
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Storm still looks bad... good news, and bad news...
This is my current thinking... We're going to have a really long and kind of "disgusting" type storm... I think we'll have scattered areas that reach 3 or 4 inches of rain from certain bands setting up, and winds gusts probably reaching at least 45 mph over coastal areas... Now models are very un consistent still, but this is what they are currently showing... After Midnight tonight, and into tomorrow will be the bad rain, and wind, and then there will be a break in the action for tuesday and wednesday where it will just be nasty... light showers, wind gusts around 25 mph... Then on into Thursday the low will begin to re group just off the coast where the worst of the storm may come... Its really un clear at this point... I dont have too much to say other than watch out from Tonight to Thursday, where we may have a storm on our hands...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Storms looking worse and worse...
All though models currently show a storm not as bad as the recent one, it still may be a bad storm, and for some it could be worse than the last storm... but once again, the overall affect won't be as bad... at least thats how it looks now... I say that because compared to yesterday the models show a much stronger storm... Unfortunatley the storm is only 48-84 hours away, and still so many questions and confusions on the storm... Some show a monster storm with tropical characteristics, heading straight up the east coast bringing 2-4 inches of rain and again wind gusts potentially reaching 60 mph... Others show it only hitting certain locations, and other details that are not clear at all at this time... Just like with the other storm, some models are now showing a stream of atlantic moisture feeding into the east coast, and potentially a real tropical system which would be named ottow to the south of the first system... Most models bring it very close to the U.S. coast but then quickly shoot it out to sea... The track is not set in stone by any means so its possible it because a real problem mid to late week... So for now, there is likely going to be a nor'easter type storm developing tonight and hitting the northeast coast by monday or tuesday, with a stream of potential moisture feeding into the storm, and maybe even a tropical system on the southern end... So far, this storm looks it may be on track to be very similar to the last one...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Friday, October 1, 2010
Monster Storm slowly moves away, but damage left behind... In the big picture, everything is far from over...
The storm was certainly both over exaggerated, and underestimated... East of NYC was supposed to get the rain much worse then we did, even though we still did get plenty of rain... Rainfall and some storm forecasts were well over exaggerated as well... What was not over exaggerated, but really underestimated were without a doubt the wind... Last night I thought my house was going to blow over from the winds where gusts certainly reached past 60 mph at times... Not only that, but the original forecast for the wind was only forcasted for 6-10 hours, meanwhile the wind picked up two days ago during the night time, and is still going on at my house with gusts past 45 mph... The high wind warning went in affect yesterday and ended 6 am this morning, which was a very off forecast, since winds went on howling for more than 2 days... However, I think lots of places were lucky with this storm, but maybe not with the next one...
Well some computer models show weak storms attempting to develop and either failing to do so, or just taking the weak systems off the coast... Now if the CMC or Canadian model is picking up on something then we could be in a whole lot of trouble... Last run showed a nor'easter or potentially a storm with at least some tropical characteristics hitting similar areas with a good amount of wind and rain, and then a major hurricane potentially moving up the coast for next weekend or late next week... At that point it will at least be in line with Florida... Then even before this major hurricane we have to keep an eye on the Caribbean for even more development for next week... Even if some models don't see two or three major storms coming up the east coast, the fact that they are picking up development of some kind tells us that we really have to keep an eye on a potential series of storms hitting the east coast starting as early as Mid to Early week next week...
-Scott Pecoriello
Well some computer models show weak storms attempting to develop and either failing to do so, or just taking the weak systems off the coast... Now if the CMC or Canadian model is picking up on something then we could be in a whole lot of trouble... Last run showed a nor'easter or potentially a storm with at least some tropical characteristics hitting similar areas with a good amount of wind and rain, and then a major hurricane potentially moving up the coast for next weekend or late next week... At that point it will at least be in line with Florida... Then even before this major hurricane we have to keep an eye on the Caribbean for even more development for next week... Even if some models don't see two or three major storms coming up the east coast, the fact that they are picking up development of some kind tells us that we really have to keep an eye on a potential series of storms hitting the east coast starting as early as Mid to Early week next week...
-Scott Pecoriello
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Do not be fooled...
Let me tell you, that west of NYC, Philly, and DC, have had a crazy rain day today... The absolute worst for them i believe is over, although it will get bad again, if it hasn't already... The real area I'm concerned for is these major cities and to the east, where many be people may be starting to let their guards down... Well dont... Because nothing really "bad" has happened yet... not even really close to that... This morning we picked up more than an inch of rain in a matter of no more than an our here in southwestern CT... I literally thought to myself, if this continues, we'll all be underwater by noon... Crazyily enough, it stopped and it was bright and breezy for most of the day, which was something I had never considered, and something that certainly had never been forecasted... What I later found out was that storm part #1 had just clipped us, and storm part #2 will be the worst and come tonight, and then storm part #3... nicole... Will hit sometime Friday... So do not let your guards down because a bad, bad storm is on the way... Strongest winds are just beginning around my area where it went for 72 customers without out power to 533 costumers in a matter of hours with peak gusts at most 40 mph... This is why I fear for the next couple of hours into the early morning where winds will likely gust to close to 60 mph, and stay sustained close to 40 mph... Not just that but the rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour will kick in with that, and at times it will look like an all out tropical storm along the coast, and potentially a minumal hurricane... So bad stuff coming along, and the worst will probably start around or just before midnight... Thats at least when the rain will begin to kick in... Now times are moving back and quickly... Yesterday's forecast called for an AM sprinkle for tomorrow and clearing in the afternoon, while tomorrows forecast now calls for heavy rain and wind, with 1-2+ additional inches expected across many areas... So keep it here... Lots of stormy weather coming your way...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Its Big, Its Bad, and there is no stoping it...
I really wish I had more time, but I can promise you that tomorrow I will be posting numerous times... We have a big one on the way... From T.D. 16, to Nicole, to now technically T.D. Nicole, but really a second low is forming, and will be the big problem... The way everything is going to develope and that is important, but more important is for you to know what is going to happen... 18... Yes... 18 inches of rain has already been reported around Wilmington of the past couple of days... we could get more than half of that closer to home here... I need to bring back this scary date, because its important to get this point across correctly... March 13th, 2010... School up here was out for a week, rains made the ground moist, with the winds gusting to 70 mph trees were down everywhere, and power was out for some up to 2 weeks... No over exaggeration when i say this storm may be similar to that... maybe worse for some... Since my time is running short, I'm going to wrap this up quickly... This is a very scary, very dangerous, and very real storm... It will do damage... Gusts up here are expected to reach 60 mph potentially, with 4-6 inches potentially 8 inches of rain, and into central PA, maybe 12 inches of rain possible... Crazy, Crazy, Crazy... Expect damage, and evacuations, and lots of lots of flooding... Thunderstorms of severe magnitude are also possible...
-scott pecoriello
-scott pecoriello
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Nicole is forming and currently is T.D. 16... East coast watch out...
As I type intense thunderstorms are rapping quickly around T.D. 16, soon to be tropical storm Nicole by tomorrow morning... The storm will pass over cuba before reaching a small body of water between Cuba and Florida where the storm will have its final chance to really attempt at intensifying... As of now most expect top winds to reach only 45 or 50 mph, really pretty minimum tropical storm strength... Seeing though, that the storm will then enter the atlantic ocean again once leaving the extreme southwest coast of florida, there it may try to strengthen a little bit more before making some kind of landfall in the Carolinas and then moving in a due north fashion up the east coast... Doesn't sound like a whole lot of trouble right? WRONG! First off its been raining for two, or for some, 3 days from florida to maine... Since there were drought like conditions in place before that, only minor flooding has taken place... But, tomorrow we can expect that rain to continue and then finally, Thursday will be the day where the east coast will be pounded by potentially 4-8, maybe 10 inches of rain!!!! Flooding, Flooding, Flooding!!!! The current forecast gives a catastrophic like scene up and down the east coast... Probably similar if not worse than what was going on across minnesota last week... I still think winds will be an issue, especially east of the storms center... expect sustained winds to be from 50-60 mph around the carolina landfall where gusts may get in and around 70 mph, and then toward the big Northeast cities, winds ranging from 35-50 mph with gusts probably close to 60 mph... west of the storms center is where the worst flooding will be, but a zone just in between both, may be where the worst of the storm occurs...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Things get fired up again... The next 2-3 storms will be the big ones to watch...
Boy oh Boy... The season is ramping back up, but not the way it did before... This time our concern is not the classic african wave parade back in late august and through september, instead its the carribean development delema... (made that one off the top of my head)... This happens when the african waves are at least half the strength they were before, the waters are 2-3 degrees cooler, and the waves leave the african coast about a hundred miles or so to the south... Now the waves can't develope because the right conditions are not in place... So instead the waves are carried all the way to the leeward islands where the waters are now 4 or 5+ degrees above average, and most conditions are near perfect... from there the U.S. already has close to a 65% chance of impact from the storm... And then, it goes in three general paths...
The latest computer models favor only one of these paths though... It could be the most dangerous path, or the better path...
Through florida and then out to the east coast of the U.S.... Now the feared would be if it came right up to the coast and cause major problems...
After one passed up the coast, the models show the next one developing, and this pattern goes on 2 or 3 times, so the potential is there for more than 3 tropical systems to move up the eastern seaboard each with heavy, heavy rains, and very gusty and strong winds... So Miami FL to Bangor ME watch out over the next 3 weeks...
-scott pecoriello
The latest computer models favor only one of these paths though... It could be the most dangerous path, or the better path...
Through florida and then out to the east coast of the U.S.... Now the feared would be if it came right up to the coast and cause major problems...
After one passed up the coast, the models show the next one developing, and this pattern goes on 2 or 3 times, so the potential is there for more than 3 tropical systems to move up the eastern seaboard each with heavy, heavy rains, and very gusty and strong winds... So Miami FL to Bangor ME watch out over the next 3 weeks...
-scott pecoriello
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Quick night time comments...
1. Julia is done, just a sea storm moving to the north... Amazingly Karls moisture is still hitting mexico, even parts of texas...
2. Igor is still on track to my last forecast yesterday... The difference is it should hit as just a moderate to weak category 2 storm, but still, similar damage is expected to my last forecast...
3. The next storm, lisa to be, could develop as early as tomorrow, or as late as mid to late week... The earlier it develops the more likely the storm is to turn north and maybe out to sea even though even the models that bring it north eventually turn it back to the west and some to the southwest so it looks to become a threat either way, but who knows whats going to happen once past the islands, or how close it gets to the islands... There it could still turn out to sea... But then again it could hit land...
4. For the last week now models have been very consistent with a gulf coast storm, better yet a hurricane... Yes we may even have Matthew on our hands come next weekend... Where the models point the storm will go may be catastrophic...
5. Finally, the left over moisture in karl may actually become a storm... Now the chances of it are low, but whether it becomes a depression or not, rain along with some gusty wind is likely, but flooding will be the main issue for sections of mexico and texas...
-scott pecoriello
2. Igor is still on track to my last forecast yesterday... The difference is it should hit as just a moderate to weak category 2 storm, but still, similar damage is expected to my last forecast...
3. The next storm, lisa to be, could develop as early as tomorrow, or as late as mid to late week... The earlier it develops the more likely the storm is to turn north and maybe out to sea even though even the models that bring it north eventually turn it back to the west and some to the southwest so it looks to become a threat either way, but who knows whats going to happen once past the islands, or how close it gets to the islands... There it could still turn out to sea... But then again it could hit land...
4. For the last week now models have been very consistent with a gulf coast storm, better yet a hurricane... Yes we may even have Matthew on our hands come next weekend... Where the models point the storm will go may be catastrophic...
5. Finally, the left over moisture in karl may actually become a storm... Now the chances of it are low, but whether it becomes a depression or not, rain along with some gusty wind is likely, but flooding will be the main issue for sections of mexico and texas...
-scott pecoriello
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Bermuda to be destroyed... Lisa coming soon...
Well, my forecast unfortunately continues to shift east, putting it dangerously close to Bermuda... For this not to be a certain death storm, every person on that island needs to be evacuated starting tomorrow, as well as have Hurricane Warnings posted all over the Bermuda Island area... It's hard for me to explain the conditions that Bermuda will feel from Saturday night through Monday... The storm will hover over the area for potentially 48 hours, that in reality will feel like a week... The coastline will be covered by ocean, probably as far inland as a half a mile or so before elevation climbs... Rainfall totals will be upward of 5 or 6 inches... probably up to 8... at this point I cannot be sure though... Winds sustained at potentially 120 or 125 mph with gusts close to 160 mph... Devastating damage will occur... Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. As I stated before, the storm surge will be incredible... Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Bermuda will basically be cut of from the rest of the world and become no mans land for potentially several days to a week... So as you can see, this storm is nothing to joke about... I fear the worst for Bermuda, which at this point, would make the island a living hell...
As if Igor weren't enough to be stressed about, Karl will slam Mexico maybe sometime tomorrow... I'm not so up to date with Karl, as I have been focusing more on Igor, Julia, and something later down the road... Last I checked Karl was a category 1 storm, with the potential to become a category 2 or maybe even a weak category 3 hurricane before making landfall... Mexico will also be absolutely devastated by this storm... Direct impact will actually most likely be better than when it moves inland, or maybe just equal... Winds will be over 100 mph where it makes landfall a good 300 to 500+ miles south of Texas... Even that far south Texas will still feel affects from this storm... Scattered showers with gusty winds will begin to be felt tomorrow, but conditions will improve shortly.... Once Karl is done ripping apart the coastline, he will move into the mountain area where he will sit and destroy... This storm will certainly go down in history... Floods, floods, floods!!! Mountains will literally begin to fall apart (Really bad mud slides). Karl could take a week to be all set and done...
Julia will be a nothing... At one point though it reached a weak category 4 status with Igor being category 4 at the same time, which made it go down in history, for that was only the second time that has ever happened... Julia will continue to weaken, now a category 1 storm, with winds dissipating... Well later down the road Julia will get wrapped right into Igor as they both die over seas...
LISA?!?! Do we really need another storm?...
Here we have all three, and the fourth concerned area... Just look at Igor... Massive... But trust me the east coast wont be so lucky for too much longer unfortunately, and same goes for the gulf coast... Take a look at where some of the most recent models are taking what looks to be the future Lisa...
Remember... Keep it here for the latest, and be safe...
-Scott Pecoriello
As if Igor weren't enough to be stressed about, Karl will slam Mexico maybe sometime tomorrow... I'm not so up to date with Karl, as I have been focusing more on Igor, Julia, and something later down the road... Last I checked Karl was a category 1 storm, with the potential to become a category 2 or maybe even a weak category 3 hurricane before making landfall... Mexico will also be absolutely devastated by this storm... Direct impact will actually most likely be better than when it moves inland, or maybe just equal... Winds will be over 100 mph where it makes landfall a good 300 to 500+ miles south of Texas... Even that far south Texas will still feel affects from this storm... Scattered showers with gusty winds will begin to be felt tomorrow, but conditions will improve shortly.... Once Karl is done ripping apart the coastline, he will move into the mountain area where he will sit and destroy... This storm will certainly go down in history... Floods, floods, floods!!! Mountains will literally begin to fall apart (Really bad mud slides). Karl could take a week to be all set and done...
Julia will be a nothing... At one point though it reached a weak category 4 status with Igor being category 4 at the same time, which made it go down in history, for that was only the second time that has ever happened... Julia will continue to weaken, now a category 1 storm, with winds dissipating... Well later down the road Julia will get wrapped right into Igor as they both die over seas...
LISA?!?! Do we really need another storm?...
Here we have all three, and the fourth concerned area... Just look at Igor... Massive... But trust me the east coast wont be so lucky for too much longer unfortunately, and same goes for the gulf coast... Take a look at where some of the most recent models are taking what looks to be the future Lisa...
Remember... Keep it here for the latest, and be safe...
-Scott Pecoriello
STORMS NOW GONE...
Well damage included downed trees and power lines for the most part... Some car accidents and structural damage due to the storms, but mostly minor... My town went right through the storm... Thunder was heard by me while the storm was in NYC!!! That really says something about the strength... Finally when it arrived, it rained like you wouldn't believe, with potential 3 inches + per hour... Lightning was frequent... But as severe as everyone thought it would be, it wasn't... At least by the time it reached me... The whole time i was waiting to see some monster hail and a 50-80 mph wind gust, but it just never happened... I guess we missed the worst... So for the rest of the night, a large area of moderate to locally heavy rain is moving toward us and should be here by 11 or 12 tonight and then a last strong band of storms which will probably weaken prior to getting here, will arrive at around 4 or 5 am... Stay safe...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
EMERGENCY POST
I have to make this quick because the storms are getting bad... A "tornado may be ripping through Staten Island to Long Island, and now a new storm in Westchester where rapid strengthening is taking place... Storms packing 80 mph winds, with large hail, and again a potential tornado... Rain will also cause quick flooding... This is a very populated area, and really this scene is almost based off some kind of horror movie... Be safe...
-scott pecoriello
-scott pecoriello
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Updated Forecast for Igor... Two others to watch... More in the future?
Well Igor, which i was so confident last night would become a category 5 hurricane, didn't do so... But I see where my mistake was... I was too late on the eye replacement... It came too early for Igor to become a category 5... Now done with the eye replacement cycle, Igor should be able to become a category 5 hurricane... But... It won't because now Igor will begin to move over colder waters... Still, it should become a strong category 4 hurricane again (Right now packing winds of 145 and gusts of 180, should get back to winds 150 or 155, and gusts close to 200 mph) before slowly loosing strength and giving into category 3 status... And When it makes its closest passing to Bermuda (possible direct hit) it will be a weak category 3 before weakening to category 2 just past Bermuda with its closest approach to the Northeast... Now back to its "closest U.S. approach". Well unfortunately it did make that West north westerly turn this morning but still well off from the original forecast... So yes, i tweaked my forecast just a bit, but i still believe it will pass in between the U.S. east coast, and Bermuda... So here it is... Enjoy!
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Monday, September 13, 2010
Let's see how my forecast does...
Ok, Igor... Category 5 by tomorrow morning the latest is my call on it... Sometime tomorrow or tomorrow night Igor will go through an eyewall replacement which will bring it back down to a category 4, and then after maybe briefly a 5 again, but it will be the first 5 since 2007... Actually Igor is only 1 of 12 storms to be a category 5 where it is in that part of the atlantic... Ok so i drew a forecast as usual... But so far every model, forecast, and website has been off... Try to turn it north... It is still staying on a steady westerly direction, and if that doesn't change soon, trouble is going to come quickly... Already Igor is supposed to be north of 20N meanwhile it stays steady at about 17N... Now I know 5 degrees isn't a big difference, but if thats off, maybe a lot of other stuff is off... I just really can't see me waking up tomorrow to find out all of a sudden Igor has turned NW, so i am one of very few who still believe Igor is going to continue west for at least tomorrow, and we'll see just how my forecast plays out... In the future it brings it to Earl's path, but that's in a while so here it is... Enjoy!
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Quick update, but crucial...
Just quickly and to the point, Igor will become a category 5 storm probably by Wednesday or Thursday maybe earlier... Big problems lie ahead though, models are doing "earl" so to speak... The original forecast is to turn north and miss everyone maybe hit Bermuda, but then slowly switch to the west... My gut feeling is that this storm will do an "earl" maybe even more to the west or east, but what the data feeling is that Bermuda is in a whole lot of trouble, and may face the worst destruction ever felt by a storm... So lots of questions and not too many answers... Also, i should mention T.D. 12 has formed which again gut feeling will follow Igor's path, data feeling will turn to the north and do nothing to anybody... Also... if that weren't enough... a low looking better oganized continues to sit and spin in the carribean giving hispanola and hati bands of rain and wind... most models point to this hitting the yucatan peninsula and then entering the very southwest gulf where it should become a tropical storm or hurricane depending on a couple things and then take the classic path that 2 other storms have already taken this year... Lots going on, and more in the future... keep it here...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Friday, September 3, 2010
For me... I'm done with Earl... Others... Still have a long way to go...
As mentioned in the title, west of New London, Suffolk County and west of Rhode Island and the general Boston area, are in the clear... Meaning the most you are going to get is some showers from time to time with winds no higher than 30 mph, maybe a period of rain... So my house is in the clear... For others though, Earl is still a strong storm with top winds around 80 mph gusting to about 100 mph... The problem is this wind field and rain field are expanding making conditions very bad across eastern MA, RI, and the eastern portions of long island and CT where sustained winds could be around 40-60 mph with winds 60- 75 or maybe 80 closer to the cape and islands... Keep in mind these are sustained winds, so gusts could be 55-75 with gusts 75-90 or maybe nearing 100 mph closer to the cape and islands... Rainfall will likely exceed 3 inches with the highest rainfall upward of 4 or 5 inches... Back the NYC, western CT area, the tropical storm watches have now been lifting so tropical storm conditions are not expected across that area... So watch out, because the worst for many is still yet to come...
Moving right along here, onto new business... Believe me as disappointed as I am about Earl missing me, and trust me I am disappointed, I can't be too upset because there is just too much action in the Atlantic to be disappointed about hurricanes missing you... So here it is... We have Fiona... Now countinueing on this weakening trend should die out completely after giving minamal tropical storm conditions to the Bermuda Island... Really just more of a nuisance... What's up with Gaston?!? Well first TD 8, then TS gaston, then back to a TD, and now so weak that it is being considered a tropical rainstorm... So why is the NHC holding onto this storm and not just saying yeah it's done, short lived??? Well they're worried about this storm really regaining quite a bit of strength, in fact, potentially a hurricane by next week... Here's something scary, look at one of the worldwide models last night (can't remember exactly which one) it showed a massive hurricane ripping through the islands of the carribean before destroying the Bahamas and making some sort of dramatic landfall in miami, then making the classic Katrina move and cutting into the above average warm waters of the gulf where the model showed a category 5 hurricane sitting and waiting to kill... Now before I freak everyone out, keep in mind this storm is weeks away from coming near any type of land, and it may not even regain strength for all we know... Also this track could be totally and completely wrong... So loads of uncertainty... And if that wasn't enough, a monster wave just left the African coast a couple of days ago and could pose yet another threat the u.s....
As always, i'll be sure to keep you updated...
-Scott Pecoriello
Moving right along here, onto new business... Believe me as disappointed as I am about Earl missing me, and trust me I am disappointed, I can't be too upset because there is just too much action in the Atlantic to be disappointed about hurricanes missing you... So here it is... We have Fiona... Now countinueing on this weakening trend should die out completely after giving minamal tropical storm conditions to the Bermuda Island... Really just more of a nuisance... What's up with Gaston?!? Well first TD 8, then TS gaston, then back to a TD, and now so weak that it is being considered a tropical rainstorm... So why is the NHC holding onto this storm and not just saying yeah it's done, short lived??? Well they're worried about this storm really regaining quite a bit of strength, in fact, potentially a hurricane by next week... Here's something scary, look at one of the worldwide models last night (can't remember exactly which one) it showed a massive hurricane ripping through the islands of the carribean before destroying the Bahamas and making some sort of dramatic landfall in miami, then making the classic Katrina move and cutting into the above average warm waters of the gulf where the model showed a category 5 hurricane sitting and waiting to kill... Now before I freak everyone out, keep in mind this storm is weeks away from coming near any type of land, and it may not even regain strength for all we know... Also this track could be totally and completely wrong... So loads of uncertainty... And if that wasn't enough, a monster wave just left the African coast a couple of days ago and could pose yet another threat the u.s....
As always, i'll be sure to keep you updated...
-Scott Pecoriello
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Models trying to hint at something?
Just glancing through the models, the track hasn't changed, but what has? well the shape and size and different details of the storm are now beginning to maybe become more clear... Several models are now showing areas more of the wind and moisture shifting further west... First the GFS showed it, then the DGEX, and then the world wide nogapes... Unfortunatley i can't show you the GFS because it wouldn't let me post it, but take a look at the DGEX and nogapes and just imagine the GFS slightly worse than those two...
DGEX:
Nogaps:
keep it here for more... Sorry about the video...
-scott pecoriello
DGEX:
Nogaps:
keep it here for more... Sorry about the video...
-scott pecoriello
Joe Bastardi, my last hope?
Believe it or not, I am a weather freak... which unfortunately means sadly your mind is rather sick... By that I mean, I was kind of hoping earl would take that westerly track and hit us... I know, I know, it's a terrible thing to hope, but having the disease "weather freak" is not easy... So... Earl has weakened quite a bit... It has now officially passed its strongest point which was later yesterday with winds sustained at about 145 mph with gusts upward of 175... Now, after hitting slightly cooler waters and currently going threw its second eye wall replacement, Earl has sustained winds at 115 mph with gusts upward of about 140 mph... The storm is now technically moving to the North at a very fast 18 mph, but here's the catch... Since this is going through an eye replacement which is when the eye of the hurricane fades out and a new one forms under it, the storm is likely to wobble and drift both back and fourth east and west... now of course the hope would be that it wobbles more east then west, but that may not be the case which is why we need to keep an extra close eye on this... Now onto Joe Bastardi... this is the man who as of yesterday still thought this storm could go more west then everyone else thought... Now today he is beginning to really back down and doubt the chances of that happening... He was really my last "hope", or for most "fear". So expect a very detailed video later tonight, but for now here are some detailed forecast of what is expected...
NYC:
Well the showers should begin to enter the area by 2 or 3 pm, although the timing isn't really worked out yet... Once the rain or drizzle begins it will probably be scattered for 2 or 3 hours with sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts in certain bands to about 40 mph... During hour 3 or 4 of the storm there will be an hour at the least of some sort of steady rain with sustained wind closer to 30 mph and gusts around 45 mph... Once the hour passes expect back to scattered showers and winds at about 25-30 with gusts to 40 mph... Expect rainfall to range from 0.25 to 0.50 with maybe an inch of rain depending on what bands of the storm hit... Just a side note, these scattered showers will be the storms outer and middle rain bands, with the hour of steady rain associated with the outer edge of the main storm... I expect the top winds in NYC to reach 45 mph at the most...
Philadelphia:
Scattered showers to start late morning, again timing is not really worked out yet... This should only be scattered showers and cloudy with sustained winds at 15 or 20 mph tops, with some gusts in a couple bands reaching 30 mph... by later in the day and toward the night all activity should be set and done... rainfall should be less than 0.25 inches, with the top wind reaching 35 mph at the very very most...
Westport CT::
The rain should begin at about 3 or 4 PM maybe earlier, the times haven't really been worked out yet... the rain will begin scattered for the first hour or so before becoming more in the steady category with winds potentially sustained at about 30-35 mph with some gusts in rain bands close to or around 50 mph... The steadier rain should last for 2-3 hours before returning back to scattered showers very late Friday night... Expect the rainfall for the most part to range from about 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain with potentially up to 2 inches if some of the heavier bands work into the area... Tropical storm conditions are possible after the first or second hour of the storm... Top wind should be at the very very most a 55 mph gust is possible but not likely... minor damage to life and property are possible... It is possible that a tropical storm warning is issued for the area as we head through the next 24 hours... It is even possible that the warning may be called during the middle of the storm...
New London:
Rain should begin by around 4 pm, but that is not set in stone by any mean... The rain will begin scattered and gust but it shouldn't take long for the storm to get underway and the rain to become a steady rain... sustained winds should be around 45 or 50 mph with scattered gusts to 60 mph... It is possible that the rain becomes heavy briefly and gusts reach slightly upward of 60 mph... Once that passes though, the rain should start to drop in intensity, as well as the winds... Still the winds should remain steady at 45 or 50 mph before finally dropping to a calm very late Friday night... Tropical storm conditions are very likely, and at times it may feel like a very strong tropical storm, but it is not expected to get as bad as hurricane force... Minor to medium damage to property and life... Rainfall expected between 1.50 and 2.50 inches with maybe up to 3 inches, as well as top wind reaching maybe just maybe 70 mph, but that is very unlikely... Due to this, it is possible, but not very likely, that a hurricane watch is issued in the next 24 hours...
The rest of the forecasts will be featured in the video... be sure to watch!...
-Scott Pecoriello
NYC:
Well the showers should begin to enter the area by 2 or 3 pm, although the timing isn't really worked out yet... Once the rain or drizzle begins it will probably be scattered for 2 or 3 hours with sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts in certain bands to about 40 mph... During hour 3 or 4 of the storm there will be an hour at the least of some sort of steady rain with sustained wind closer to 30 mph and gusts around 45 mph... Once the hour passes expect back to scattered showers and winds at about 25-30 with gusts to 40 mph... Expect rainfall to range from 0.25 to 0.50 with maybe an inch of rain depending on what bands of the storm hit... Just a side note, these scattered showers will be the storms outer and middle rain bands, with the hour of steady rain associated with the outer edge of the main storm... I expect the top winds in NYC to reach 45 mph at the most...
Philadelphia:
Scattered showers to start late morning, again timing is not really worked out yet... This should only be scattered showers and cloudy with sustained winds at 15 or 20 mph tops, with some gusts in a couple bands reaching 30 mph... by later in the day and toward the night all activity should be set and done... rainfall should be less than 0.25 inches, with the top wind reaching 35 mph at the very very most...
Westport CT::
The rain should begin at about 3 or 4 PM maybe earlier, the times haven't really been worked out yet... the rain will begin scattered for the first hour or so before becoming more in the steady category with winds potentially sustained at about 30-35 mph with some gusts in rain bands close to or around 50 mph... The steadier rain should last for 2-3 hours before returning back to scattered showers very late Friday night... Expect the rainfall for the most part to range from about 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain with potentially up to 2 inches if some of the heavier bands work into the area... Tropical storm conditions are possible after the first or second hour of the storm... Top wind should be at the very very most a 55 mph gust is possible but not likely... minor damage to life and property are possible... It is possible that a tropical storm warning is issued for the area as we head through the next 24 hours... It is even possible that the warning may be called during the middle of the storm...
New London:
Rain should begin by around 4 pm, but that is not set in stone by any mean... The rain will begin scattered and gust but it shouldn't take long for the storm to get underway and the rain to become a steady rain... sustained winds should be around 45 or 50 mph with scattered gusts to 60 mph... It is possible that the rain becomes heavy briefly and gusts reach slightly upward of 60 mph... Once that passes though, the rain should start to drop in intensity, as well as the winds... Still the winds should remain steady at 45 or 50 mph before finally dropping to a calm very late Friday night... Tropical storm conditions are very likely, and at times it may feel like a very strong tropical storm, but it is not expected to get as bad as hurricane force... Minor to medium damage to property and life... Rainfall expected between 1.50 and 2.50 inches with maybe up to 3 inches, as well as top wind reaching maybe just maybe 70 mph, but that is very unlikely... Due to this, it is possible, but not very likely, that a hurricane watch is issued in the next 24 hours...
The rest of the forecasts will be featured in the video... be sure to watch!...
-Scott Pecoriello
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
History in the making...
Well its history in the making here as hurricane earl approaches the area... Now back to a cat 4 status, earl actually has about a 20% chance of becoming a cat 5 by tomorrow... so here's the latest... The track continues to very slowly, but surely shift to the west... Earl is now changing directions moving NNW, but my gut feeling is it may change back to NW for a little while before becoming NNW and then N again... Looking at the current track its still the same for me with maybe a mile shift the the west... As long as the models keep this slow westerly shift, meteorologists will have to begin shifting their forecasts west probably starting tomorrow... If by tomorrow the storm gets to 76, 77 west, then we all need to panic, assuming from there major destruction is likely... if it moves a couple of degress west thats more normal... so why history? well the first thing that im most excited about, is that where i live it is the first time in about 20-25 years a tropical storm watch has been issued... Also Earl could be one of the strongest, if not, the strongest hurricane to reach the carolinas and north... It could be as high as a cat 4 status when it does so... So keep it here because i am still very, very confused with all that is going on here with the track... some forecasts are really starting to worry me...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
More on Earl...
Tonight I'm just reviewing the scenarios and how likely they each are... Scenario # 1 would potentially devastate the whole east coast and be one of the worst storms to hit the U.S. ever... Millions of dollars in damage, and life threatening impact... Scenario #2 would give the extreme coastal areas bad destruction and again maybe life threatening impacts, but the larger cities would get some moderate to heavy rain with tropical storm force gusts, and potentially sustained winds... Scenario #3 would give just extreme coastal areas tropical storm force gusts, and some heavy rain but nearly no destruction, and big cities would get at the most a passing shower...
-Scott Pecoriello
-Scott Pecoriello
Monday, August 30, 2010
Hurricane Earl reaches scary category 3 status... Where will it go next?
As of 1:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Earl was a Category 3 hurricane with winds at aproximatley 125 MPH with gusts past 150 MPH... Earl is currently located just to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico... Reports from all the islands affected by the storm includes structural damage, flooding, and large swells coming in quickly... Many of the islands currently feeling hurricane force winds as Earl begins to slowly move away... Right now Earl is moving at 15 mph to the WNW, still strengthening and expected to become a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow, and there is a slim chance, and the chances are growing, that Earl becomes the first category 5 storm of the year! The potential is there once it gets to the NE of the bahamas, thats where the storm will at least be at its strongest point... Now from there it gets very complicated... At that point the storm will most likely be moving to the NW toward the Carolina coast... My best guess is that it comes just offshore the carolina coast and turns N before rather quickly turning NNE and then NE just south of long island and barely missing the cape and curving along the canadian coast... Now a 50 mile difference could wreck havoac along the entire east coast... Here's the specifics...
How far offshore will the storm be?
Cape Cod: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Westport CT: 80-100 miles, 25- 50 MPH, 1-2 inches
NYC: 100- 150 miles, 15- 35 MPH, .50-1 inch
Atlantic City: 80-100 miles, 25-50 MPH, 1-2 inches
Cape Hatteras: 30-50 miles, 60-80 MPH, 4-8 inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: 10-30 miles, 70-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: 15-30 miles, 65-85 MPH, 8-10 inches
So you can see a 50 mile shift would be terrifying... Here's what it could be like...
Cape cod: Landfall, 80-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Westport: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
NYC: 50-100 miles, 20- 45 MPH, 1-2 inche
Atlantic city: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Cape Hatteras: Landfall, 85-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 75-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 70- 85 MPH, 10+ inches
-Scott Pecoriello
How far offshore will the storm be?
Cape Cod: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Westport CT: 80-100 miles, 25- 50 MPH, 1-2 inches
NYC: 100- 150 miles, 15- 35 MPH, .50-1 inch
Atlantic City: 80-100 miles, 25-50 MPH, 1-2 inches
Cape Hatteras: 30-50 miles, 60-80 MPH, 4-8 inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: 10-30 miles, 70-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: 15-30 miles, 65-85 MPH, 8-10 inches
So you can see a 50 mile shift would be terrifying... Here's what it could be like...
Cape cod: Landfall, 80-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Westport: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
NYC: 50-100 miles, 20- 45 MPH, 1-2 inche
Atlantic city: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Cape Hatteras: Landfall, 85-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 75-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 70- 85 MPH, 10+ inches
-Scott Pecoriello
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Not much has changed...
Its about 12 pm now and other than Earl finally becoming a hurricane, things still remain almost as uncertain as before... Here is the slightly tweaked path's for Danielle (which is pretty much done for), Earl, and Fiona...
-scott pecoriello
-scott pecoriello
Friday, August 27, 2010
Tropical breakdown...
Today I'm going to keep it simple, and just do a breakdown of each and every tropical/future tropical storms starting with Danielle, and ending with what could be t.d. 9...
Danielle:
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : Less than 2%
Danielle's path is now almost certain with the storm passing somewhere between 180 and 200 miles to the east of Bermuda... Bermuda should only experience a few affects from the storm considering the wind span is only about 175 miles, and a rain span of about 190-200 miles in some of the outer bands... Bermuda should expect to see 35-45 mph winds, with showers of light to moderate rain... also Bermuda should expect wave heights to be between 12-15 feet, with the highest wave heights to 18 feet just a few miles off the coast... Danielle now a category 4 with winds 135 mph and gust close to 170, it should weaken slightly as it makes its closest pass to Bermuda sometime very late tomorrow and early Sunday... Once passing, then expect the slight weakening to start taking place with winds coming down to 125 mph... by Tuesday expect winds to be down to around 115 or 110 as a category 3 status, and by Wednesday faster weakening as Danielle experiences strong shear and colder waters which will bring the storm down to either a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm before completely falling apart by early next weekend... Just something interesting that i found out today is that they're actually doing a titanic expedition in the north Atlantic, where they're planning to use underwater robots to discover new areas never seen before in the titanic... coincidentally, hurricane Danielle is expected to pass almost directly over that area as a potentially category 1 hurricane at the least, with that boat experiencing waves 25+ feet if it doesn't get out of that area which may not be until tomorrow, but tomorrow looks like it will be just in time before it gets bad... even leaving tomorrow though will cause wave between 6 and 10 feet, which is rough...
Earl
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 45%
Well Earl is currently have some trouble strengthening, battling some really dry air right now, mixed in with some shear... None the less, all of these problems will rather quickly disappear in the next 24-36 hours, which is when Earl will have a chance to begin strengthening... It will head in a W direction over the next 2-4 days and should become a hurricane in the next 48-60 hours... Once that happens, and only when it becomes a hurricane, the storm will then begin turning WNW and eventually NW... Now the three key players are a frontal boundary, high pressure, and storm strength... If the frontal boundary and the storm miss a connection and high pressure is over the central Atlantic extending close to Bermuda, and the storm isn't giant yet, the storm has a really good shot at making potentially a direct hit at the U.S. If maybe the storm intensifies too quickly, the frontal boundary and the storm make a strong connection, and the high pressure is over the middle and eastern Atlantic and over the east coast, the storm has a good shot at curving to the NW then NNW then N and finally almost all the way east, slamming into Bermuda... So it's basically a lose, lose, as of now... The best thing would be if it took an in between and went directly in the middle of the U.S. and Bermuda, which currently, isn't a very favored solution...
Soon to be Fiona
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 70%
Well a very strong wave has now been over the warm eastern Atlantic waters for 3 or 4 days now, and is still looking rather healthy on satellite images... Last blog i made a prediction that the storm would be named or at least called T.D. 8 by tomorrow or Sunday, and i still stick with that... Right now it is fighting a little bit of dry air and shear, but for the most part it is in a good position for developing... Once called T.D. 8 or Fiona, it will work on a short WSW track before turning just to the west... It could indeed become a hurricane by mid week and potentially, if everything remains as is, a major hurricane by late week... A lot of uncertainty with this one because it is so far in the future... My best guess for now is that this storm will track closest to the coast out of three storms... A lot of the models though, are having trouble showing the storm... The national hurricane center gives this storm a 70% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours which sounds right... This is really going to be the one that we're going to need to watch for the next 2 weeks, because there are a lot of places it could end up...
Gaston?:
Chances of affecting the U.S. : 50%
This one is really far in the future... Right now it is just on the edge of Africa and the far east Atlantic, south of the islands... As of now, its just a wave... Nothing really special to it, other than the knowledge that waves developed... So could this be Gaston? Well over the next week I give it about a 50% chance of developing, and since its so far in the future, I can't say at all where its going other than it may take a very similar path to Fiona...
Keep it here... A lot going on!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Danielle:
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : Less than 2%
Danielle's path is now almost certain with the storm passing somewhere between 180 and 200 miles to the east of Bermuda... Bermuda should only experience a few affects from the storm considering the wind span is only about 175 miles, and a rain span of about 190-200 miles in some of the outer bands... Bermuda should expect to see 35-45 mph winds, with showers of light to moderate rain... also Bermuda should expect wave heights to be between 12-15 feet, with the highest wave heights to 18 feet just a few miles off the coast... Danielle now a category 4 with winds 135 mph and gust close to 170, it should weaken slightly as it makes its closest pass to Bermuda sometime very late tomorrow and early Sunday... Once passing, then expect the slight weakening to start taking place with winds coming down to 125 mph... by Tuesday expect winds to be down to around 115 or 110 as a category 3 status, and by Wednesday faster weakening as Danielle experiences strong shear and colder waters which will bring the storm down to either a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm before completely falling apart by early next weekend... Just something interesting that i found out today is that they're actually doing a titanic expedition in the north Atlantic, where they're planning to use underwater robots to discover new areas never seen before in the titanic... coincidentally, hurricane Danielle is expected to pass almost directly over that area as a potentially category 1 hurricane at the least, with that boat experiencing waves 25+ feet if it doesn't get out of that area which may not be until tomorrow, but tomorrow looks like it will be just in time before it gets bad... even leaving tomorrow though will cause wave between 6 and 10 feet, which is rough...
Earl
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 45%
Well Earl is currently have some trouble strengthening, battling some really dry air right now, mixed in with some shear... None the less, all of these problems will rather quickly disappear in the next 24-36 hours, which is when Earl will have a chance to begin strengthening... It will head in a W direction over the next 2-4 days and should become a hurricane in the next 48-60 hours... Once that happens, and only when it becomes a hurricane, the storm will then begin turning WNW and eventually NW... Now the three key players are a frontal boundary, high pressure, and storm strength... If the frontal boundary and the storm miss a connection and high pressure is over the central Atlantic extending close to Bermuda, and the storm isn't giant yet, the storm has a really good shot at making potentially a direct hit at the U.S. If maybe the storm intensifies too quickly, the frontal boundary and the storm make a strong connection, and the high pressure is over the middle and eastern Atlantic and over the east coast, the storm has a good shot at curving to the NW then NNW then N and finally almost all the way east, slamming into Bermuda... So it's basically a lose, lose, as of now... The best thing would be if it took an in between and went directly in the middle of the U.S. and Bermuda, which currently, isn't a very favored solution...
Soon to be Fiona
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 70%
Well a very strong wave has now been over the warm eastern Atlantic waters for 3 or 4 days now, and is still looking rather healthy on satellite images... Last blog i made a prediction that the storm would be named or at least called T.D. 8 by tomorrow or Sunday, and i still stick with that... Right now it is fighting a little bit of dry air and shear, but for the most part it is in a good position for developing... Once called T.D. 8 or Fiona, it will work on a short WSW track before turning just to the west... It could indeed become a hurricane by mid week and potentially, if everything remains as is, a major hurricane by late week... A lot of uncertainty with this one because it is so far in the future... My best guess for now is that this storm will track closest to the coast out of three storms... A lot of the models though, are having trouble showing the storm... The national hurricane center gives this storm a 70% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours which sounds right... This is really going to be the one that we're going to need to watch for the next 2 weeks, because there are a lot of places it could end up...
Gaston?:
Chances of affecting the U.S. : 50%
This one is really far in the future... Right now it is just on the edge of Africa and the far east Atlantic, south of the islands... As of now, its just a wave... Nothing really special to it, other than the knowledge that waves developed... So could this be Gaston? Well over the next week I give it about a 50% chance of developing, and since its so far in the future, I can't say at all where its going other than it may take a very similar path to Fiona...
Keep it here... A lot going on!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
The African wave parade... Tropics are on fire...
The African wave parade? What could that possibly mean? Well first off I'd like to start by saying the tropics are very alive and very active. In fact, we could potentially have 3 to as much as 5 storms active in the atlantic all at once, and as of now I believe (if we do have 5 storms) that 3 of those will have an impact on the U.S. And this, is just the beginning of a very long, hard, stressful, and for me a very exciting season...
I still haven't explained the title, "The African wave parade". For me, and for many meteorologists, this is where everything is now starting. We kick it off with Danielle, which is now a category 1 hurricane after briefly weakening and now re-strenghthening. Danielle left right off the African coast just about 4 or 5 days ago, and now right behind it folling the leader of the "parade", is Earl,which was just named only hours ago. The storm is really looking very healthy on satelite images. And now, after both Danielle, and Earl, is a 3rd giant tropical wave which is how Danielle and Earl developed in the first place. I predict this storm becomes TD 8 by Saturday or Sunday, but likely earlier, and models and satelitte images just show more to follow in a very parade fashion... So now that we have the titles out of the way, what about the forecasted track?
Very important, where are all these storms headed... Let's start with Danielle... I've been very careful constantly checking models with this one, which I still believe is forecasted at least slightly incorrect, if not it could be off by a lot... Just a little while ago this storm finally began to turn in more of a NW direction opposed to its original WNW direction. The problem here is the storm was really supposed to turn in that direction close to a day or two ago and is first making its move now, plus models are printing out really weird things with this now...
Sooner or later NOAA and Accuweather.com are going to have to wake up and start worrying about this storm taking the curve that is now being shown on the models. This only started popping up on these models 3-5 hours ago, and seems like more and more models are joining in... looks like the storm will turn NW then NNW like expected, but then after reach a N direction the storm will quickly turn NNW and then NW, before potentially slamming right into the coast... Now since this may be a glitch, and its very new updates I'm giving this about a 30% to at most maybe a 40% chance of affecting the east coast... Now that is very high considering everyone else is giving it between a 3% and 10% chance at most... But I have to consider all possibilities which is why I can't give this a 100% or a 0% but im leaning more toward 0% just because of the confidence NOAA and Accuweather have... So for now expect this storm to take a path not affecting the east coast, but potentially bermuda, but let me be the first to create the idea of this storm curving back west somewhere between NC and ME...
Now onto Earl and soon to be TD 8... Lets start with Earl which interests me just a little bit... Out of all 3 of these storms I think Earl has the second best chance of affecting the United States... More of a chance than Danielle... Right now I give it a 50%, but that can really change in a hurry... By tomorrow it could be a 75% chance or a 30% chance... This storm will continue to move in a westerly fashion as it is doing before becoming a WNW direction just before the Lesser Antilies and Puerto Rico... Then eventually becoming NW but hooking out a good 50-100 miles further to the west than Danielle... This time instead of just moving east of Bermuda, it may just move West, inbetween the U.S. and Bermuda... From there it could brush the U.S. or curve out like Danielle... Now soon to be T.D. 8, gives me the most excitment... For now I'm giving this a 65% chance of an impact on the U.S., so this is really one to watch... Moving in a WSW direction at first, it should quickly move west off the coast of Africa where it will have a fairly easy time developing into T.D. 8, and soon to be Fiona... Once that happens it should continue west... It will be very close to the Lesser Antilies and virgin islands, and may very well have a good chance at brushing them at hurricane strength before making a NW turn toward the Bahamas where from there it has a good chance of potentially brushing the whole east coast at maybe hurricane status... Now this could be weeks away so nothing, not even Danielle is set in stone, but this will be a general direction of the next 3 storms, and check out the pattern...
So the pattern is basically all the storms are moving closer and closer to the coast... Now before I go, just a few other areas of concern. A couple hundred miles east of Nicaragua in the southern caribbean a very broad and large are of thunderstorms has about a 30%-50% chance of developing in the next 48 to 60 hours... Gulf of mexico... a weakening front coming through is creating activity and in the next 48 hours a depression or a weak tropical storm could sprown out from this... If this did happen the storm would most likely head toward Texas and maybe northern Mexico... Finally, a low pressure over parts of florida... One just west of tampa bay and the other to the east of savannah, have about a 20%-40% chance of developing in the next 36-48 hours before its too late... If a depression comes out of the one west of tampa bay, it will most likely move in a NW fashion toward the coast, and if the one to the east of savannah became a depression, you could expect the storm to move to the north and some models have been showing a possible rapid development and quick landfall anywhere from the Carolinas to the Cape over the next couple days... A lot of action... get ready for more and keep checking back here!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
I still haven't explained the title, "The African wave parade". For me, and for many meteorologists, this is where everything is now starting. We kick it off with Danielle, which is now a category 1 hurricane after briefly weakening and now re-strenghthening. Danielle left right off the African coast just about 4 or 5 days ago, and now right behind it folling the leader of the "parade", is Earl,which was just named only hours ago. The storm is really looking very healthy on satelite images. And now, after both Danielle, and Earl, is a 3rd giant tropical wave which is how Danielle and Earl developed in the first place. I predict this storm becomes TD 8 by Saturday or Sunday, but likely earlier, and models and satelitte images just show more to follow in a very parade fashion... So now that we have the titles out of the way, what about the forecasted track?
Very important, where are all these storms headed... Let's start with Danielle... I've been very careful constantly checking models with this one, which I still believe is forecasted at least slightly incorrect, if not it could be off by a lot... Just a little while ago this storm finally began to turn in more of a NW direction opposed to its original WNW direction. The problem here is the storm was really supposed to turn in that direction close to a day or two ago and is first making its move now, plus models are printing out really weird things with this now...
Sooner or later NOAA and Accuweather.com are going to have to wake up and start worrying about this storm taking the curve that is now being shown on the models. This only started popping up on these models 3-5 hours ago, and seems like more and more models are joining in... looks like the storm will turn NW then NNW like expected, but then after reach a N direction the storm will quickly turn NNW and then NW, before potentially slamming right into the coast... Now since this may be a glitch, and its very new updates I'm giving this about a 30% to at most maybe a 40% chance of affecting the east coast... Now that is very high considering everyone else is giving it between a 3% and 10% chance at most... But I have to consider all possibilities which is why I can't give this a 100% or a 0% but im leaning more toward 0% just because of the confidence NOAA and Accuweather have... So for now expect this storm to take a path not affecting the east coast, but potentially bermuda, but let me be the first to create the idea of this storm curving back west somewhere between NC and ME...
Now onto Earl and soon to be TD 8... Lets start with Earl which interests me just a little bit... Out of all 3 of these storms I think Earl has the second best chance of affecting the United States... More of a chance than Danielle... Right now I give it a 50%, but that can really change in a hurry... By tomorrow it could be a 75% chance or a 30% chance... This storm will continue to move in a westerly fashion as it is doing before becoming a WNW direction just before the Lesser Antilies and Puerto Rico... Then eventually becoming NW but hooking out a good 50-100 miles further to the west than Danielle... This time instead of just moving east of Bermuda, it may just move West, inbetween the U.S. and Bermuda... From there it could brush the U.S. or curve out like Danielle... Now soon to be T.D. 8, gives me the most excitment... For now I'm giving this a 65% chance of an impact on the U.S., so this is really one to watch... Moving in a WSW direction at first, it should quickly move west off the coast of Africa where it will have a fairly easy time developing into T.D. 8, and soon to be Fiona... Once that happens it should continue west... It will be very close to the Lesser Antilies and virgin islands, and may very well have a good chance at brushing them at hurricane strength before making a NW turn toward the Bahamas where from there it has a good chance of potentially brushing the whole east coast at maybe hurricane status... Now this could be weeks away so nothing, not even Danielle is set in stone, but this will be a general direction of the next 3 storms, and check out the pattern...
So the pattern is basically all the storms are moving closer and closer to the coast... Now before I go, just a few other areas of concern. A couple hundred miles east of Nicaragua in the southern caribbean a very broad and large are of thunderstorms has about a 30%-50% chance of developing in the next 48 to 60 hours... Gulf of mexico... a weakening front coming through is creating activity and in the next 48 hours a depression or a weak tropical storm could sprown out from this... If this did happen the storm would most likely head toward Texas and maybe northern Mexico... Finally, a low pressure over parts of florida... One just west of tampa bay and the other to the east of savannah, have about a 20%-40% chance of developing in the next 36-48 hours before its too late... If a depression comes out of the one west of tampa bay, it will most likely move in a NW fashion toward the coast, and if the one to the east of savannah became a depression, you could expect the storm to move to the north and some models have been showing a possible rapid development and quick landfall anywhere from the Carolinas to the Cape over the next couple days... A lot of action... get ready for more and keep checking back here!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
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