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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Bastardi is right, but only to an extent... Good news for winter lovers

Joe Bastardi is certainly one of my favorite meteorologists, and I always hope that he is correct on his forecasts (which he usually is), but being the huge snow lover that I am, I really hope his forecast is not correct for a big thaw come January, and not much of a winter. With that said, he does not deserve any kind of crap for his forecasts. It is nearly impossible to predict certain kind of storms and weather patterns, and he does an incredible job of accurately doing so. His blog today talked about how he was getting lots of nasty comments, emails, and even blogs due to the blog he posted on the storm. Something to do with him not predicting something about the western side of the monster snowstorm that slammed the I-95 corridor. You really got to give the guy a break, first off he was the only one who predicted the storm after everyone else switched the idea to an out to sea storm. Second he was right when he said this was one for the east coast. NYC picked up 20 inches of snow. Finally, although it really wasn't exactly my definition of a "snowy pattern" it certainly had a blockbuster storm included in it (almost 2), and absolutely freezing temperatures. His forecast in november called for a freezing record breaking December. So there is no reason he should get anything negative said about his forecasts. Now back to the patterns. Some interesting ones seem to lye ahead.

The snowy december pattern that Bastardi predicted, never really happened. I will admit though everything was there for it. The jet stream, the temperatures, even the moisture. The only problem was that there was not enough of the moisture. So his forecasting was dead on, however the moisture did not really work on his side, even though is certainly came through the other day. So now the next step in the winter forecast which has head me in a snow depression... His prediction of a thaw. January, the coldest month of the year for most, is predicted by Bastardi to be warm, and not good for storms to develope. Lately it seems like he is on a role with the monster snow in december, and now the recent model prediction of a that. But what the models are now showing is that it was be a short thaw, so I can breath a sigh of relief. Actually, the GFS shows a pattern similar to december at least as far as temperatures go. Hopefully during this period we can get some storms to come by! Before I go I would just like to say that overall I think the GFS model handled this storm the best, and handled the last one well too. My forecast that I gave on the 24th was fairly off. 4-6 inches was predicted in NYC, and I thought I was over dueing it. I guess anything can happen with an east coast snowstorm!

-Scott Pecoriello

Sunday, December 26, 2010

One to demolish the record books...

This storm is now going to be so monumental, it is likely it will go down in the record books as one of the biggest, and most dangerous blizzards in history of the tristate area. Three cities have now called states of emergency. Airports, and roads, are closing rapidly and all over the place. The highest wind gust recorded so far is Bridgeport, CT with a gust reaching 58 mph. Bands and Bands of blizzard condition type snow are setting up just slaming the same places over and over. It seems that Coastal and Northern NJ, Southeastern NY, CT, and MA, will see the absolute worse weather out of this storm. I will tell you I am confident that one of those areas will reach 36 inches of snow by time all is done. With that said I am once again forced to up my snowfall totals. I am not totally condifent with the new updates, but its my best guess at this point. Believe it or not, the storm is now forecast to do "a loopty loop"! Meaning it will just sit and spin over the same areas for an extended period of time. This is why 3 feet of snow is not out of question. And the fact that every couple hours they up the snow by about 5 inches. The matter of the fact is that we could see an additional 10-15 inches on top of areas like NYC who have 6-8 inches on the ground making totals 16-23 inches. And you have to keep in mind that different bands are going to set up in different places at different times. Widespread power outages will just become more widespread as the night continues. Millions will be without power by the end. It is possible we see damage with this, especially along the coast. The potential is even there to see hurricane force winds. Honestly, this is not hype on the storm. This is the real deal. Enjoy the map, and stay safe!!!!



-Scott Pecoriello

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Blizzard forecast just getting worse and worse... Snow map is in!!!!

Finally I was able to make a snow, and even a wind map, and these are my current and maybe last thoughts on the storm... Enjoy!!!!



The bulls eye of this storm has shifted, and is now basically from NYC to Boston, right along that I-95 corridor where that potential for up to 2 feet is there. It seems in Providence enough warm air will come up with the storm that rain will mix in, which is why it is no longer the bulls eye. I am very confident though, that someone will pick up 2 feet of snow in the corridor. Now as for the winds. There is now a blizzard warning in affect for millions and millions of people across the I-95 corridor. Its not so often that we get a blizzard warning around here, especially in the city. The winds could potentially reach 60 mph with this storm, which would really make the storm plain out destructive.



So a real crazy Christmas storm on our hands, and if all goes right, this could easily be one for the records. Unfortunately, one again, it looks like I will be missing this storm, unless by some outside chance our flight is cancelled tomorrow morning which is a possibility. I don't want to hope that would happen, but it would be pretty perfect if instead my flight was maybe rescheduled to first thing Tuesday morning, but of course no guarantee on that. That's it for now. Enjoy the rest of your Christmas evening.

-Scott Pecoriello

Blizzard potential becomes more likely as storm draws closers.... Major changes to my snowfall forecast!

Well as of last night, NYC was expected to see flurries and snow showers sunday and some accumulating snow sunday night, and then snow ending on monday with 1-3 inches of snow in NYC according to Weather.com... However overnight almost all models shifted to what I would call a worse case scenario. The storm will track far west bringing a likely full on blizzard to the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston, likely to affect millions and millions of people. The potential is there for those I-95 cities to see a foot or more of snow by time is all done. Now it is the timing that is frustrating. I have a flight out of NYC at 7 AM tomorrow morning. As of now flurries and snow showers will be around most of today, and then stop before a steady snow starts during the very early morning hours of tomorrow. The question is what time will the conditions really get bad enough for flight cancellations. My hope is that they don't start canceling tonight. It is likely though, that at some point the I-95 cities will nearly be shut down as wicked strong winds hit along with the snow creating basically an all out blizzard. Now where is the hotspot for snow? Well my guess right now is Providence RI, where it is possible that 12-18, maybe more, inches of snow crush the area with winds gusting past 40 mph. The storm seems to be tracking close enough for a mix of rain and snow to hit the cape and islands, bringing down some of the accumulations. Now the total will also depend on how much the storm bombs out at the end. If it bombs out to an extreme, which is a possibility, you can expect each snowfall forecast to be raised about 5-8 inches from what it was. If it goes by fast enough, not really expected, the totals can be lowered a good 1-3 or 2-4 inches. So here are the current snowfall totals as of now... ENJOY!

Caribou- At this point it is very hard to make a prediction on caribou based on what the storm does up north. A good guess may be a good 4-6 inches, potentially a little more or less. Very windy at times. Heavy snow is possible along with the winds, making blizzard conditions possible.

Bangor- Again, it is very hard at this point to predict past the I-95 corridor, but my best guess is 6-10 inches of snow along with extremely gusty winds, making it a good chance for blizzard conditions. Travel will be a major problem.

Portland-Still hard to forecast, I believe a good 7-11 inches of snow is in order for the area. The winds will be very gusty at times, making it almost likely for blizzard conditions to take place. The area will be impossible to get through at a time as the storm begins to bomb out over the atlantic.

Boston- More clear now, boston has a good chance at seeing 8-12 inches of snow. It is possible that Boston does get more than that, but the system may track close enough to cause a mix of rain and snow at times, lowering accumulations from being more than a foot. Still very strong winds are possible, making blizzard conditions likely. The city may be ultimately shut down for a time as a full on blizzard comes through.

Cape Cod- It seems the system will track close enough to bring a good amount of mixing into the precipitation. This will certainly lower accumulations, but still heavy snow will fall at times as the storm moves by on the back side. A good 3-5 inches is still likely to fall along with very strong winds, creating periods of blizzard conditions, especially on the back side of the storm.

Providence- As of now, it seems providence will be the bulls eye of this storm. Current accumulation forecast could be anywhere from 1-2 feet of snow! Again more or less is possible. The storm may not bomb out as much, or maybe bomb out more, but this is likely to be a target location. Winds will be very strong throughout, causing the area to likely just shut down, with a full on blizzard coming through the area. Travel will be almost impossible.

Hartford- Hartford will be a hard hit location with 8-12 inches possible. The potential is there for up to 14 inches of snow to fall. The winds will be gusting very strong creating whiteout, and blizzard conditions likely. The area is likely to be impassable during the worst of the storm, with the potential for the area to also be basically shut down at times.

NYC- Being a major travel area for leaving and coming, NYC will have major problems. At this point it seems 8-12 inches of snow is in order for the area, with potentially up to 14 inches of snow, if all goes right. Winds will batter the area. At some point the airport is likely to shut down. When that is remains a mystery for now. The heavy snow and strong winds will likely create an all out blizzard affecting millions in the area. The city will become impassable at times, and travel will have major difficulties.

Philadelphia- Philly has a good chance at seeing a good 6-10 inches of snow. The wind will just make everything worse, causing the city to potentially shut down at some point as all out blizzard conditions come through the area.

Washington- 3-5 inches of snow is likely in store for the capital city as the storm moves through. Winds will also be strong at times causing border line blizzard conditions. The city will become a hazard to travel to and from at times, and also if you are passing through the area.

I believe this forecast is going to do well in terms of accuracy. I think generally at some point or another, the tristate area will basically shut down as a result of the blizzard. Just be ready for in and around a foot of snow for the area, with winds gusting upwards of 40 mph, creating whiteouts, and blizzard conditions. As for today, the northern branch of the system will create a really beautiful christmas day, as you can expect perfect flurries on snow showers. Just enough to make a real christmas feeling. Enjoy your day! And get excited for a blizzard!

-Scott Pecoriello

Friday, December 24, 2010

GFS, AccuModel, JMA, NAM now on board for major blizzard... other models... not so much

I just got a new computer, but I can't figure out yet how to do maps on it, so for now I'm just going to list what they show. I haven't figured out how to paste pictures here either, so for now no graphics either. I am going to write exactly what each model portrays, starting with the order that accuweatherpro has it. Enjoy!

AccuModel:

Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Little wind.

Bangor- less than an inch. Snow showers. Some wind.

Portland- 1-2 inches. Snow. Wind.

Boston- 3-5 inches. Moderate snow. Windy

Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy

Hartford- 3-5 inches. Snow. Wind

NYC- 2-4 inches. Snow. Windy at times.

Philadelphia- Less than an inch of snow. Few snow showers and flurries. Little wind.

Washington- Less than an inch or no snow. Flurries, some snow showers possible. Little wind.

COAMPS:

Caribou- Less than 1 inch. flurries and snow showers. Some wind.

Bangor- little or no accumulation. Flurries. wind.

Portland- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind

Boston- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Windy.

Cape cod- 1 inch. Snow showers. Very windy.

Hartford- No Snow. Cloudy. Wind.

NYC- No Snow. Cloudy. Windy

Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.

Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.

NAM:

Caribou- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy.

Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy

Portland- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy

Boston- 18-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

Cape cod- 30-36 inches. All out Blizzard. Very Windy

Hartford- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

Philadelphia- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy

Washington- Less than 1 inch. Flurries and Snow Showers. Some Wind.

CMC (Canadian):

Caribou- less than an inch. Flurries and snow showers. Little wind.

Bangor- less than an inch. Flurries. Some wind.

Portland- No snow. Cloudy. Wind

Boston- less than an inch. Flurries. WInd

Cape cod- Less than an inch. Flurries, and snow showers. Windy

Hartford- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.

NYC- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.

Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind

Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Windy.

ECMWF:

Caribou- No snow

Bangor- No Snow

Portland- No Snow

Boston- 1-2 inches. Snow showers. Windy

Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy

Hartford- Little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind.

NYC- No snow

Philadelphia- No snow

Washington- No snow

GFS:

Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Wind.

Bangor- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Portland- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Boston- 16-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

NYC- 12-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Washington- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

JMA:

Caribou- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Portland- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Boston- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 14-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Washington- 3-5 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.

Now the models are crazy. All over the place. One shows 3 feet, the next shows no snow... So i tried my best to make up my own forecast. A consensus forecast. Enjoy!

My forecast:

Caribou- 1-3 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.

Bangor- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Portland- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Boston- 7-11 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

NYC- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 2-4 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.

Washington- 1-2 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.

I'm interested to see which model comes the closest to being correct and how my forecast does. The models were so "everything" that really my forecast is all the models snow totals averaged together, to find my totals, so my forecast could easily be off by a lot, but it may be the most accurate. I DONT KNOW! I'm just so confused. And It's weird how off they are from each other when the storm is 2-3 days away. I'm not sure whether to say get excited or wait for another one. Looking at the long ranger, it seems we're going to have a warm up period around New Years, and then back to cold, but dry. Not many storms are in the near future other than this one, and the warm aired one which looks to be rain. I hope you all have a happy and safe christmas! Get ready for whatever is coming...

-Scott Pecoriello

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Christmas Blizzard looking better and better

Just a quick update because I have a lot of work... The Blizzard looks good on the models but no guarantee it will stay... The models will probably go on and off with the storm, so the end result will be hard to decide... So for now I'm going to show you what the European and Canadian models look like vs. the GFS... I think you'll find it quite interesting, as it looks like we will have a big storm on our hands come this weekend... where, and how much snow are we looking at remains a mystery, but it looks like we could be spending some extra time with our families since we may be snowed in for the holidays... Just something that I have noticed with the models and forecasts is it is shifting toward the late saturday, all day sunday into monday scenario for the tristate area... This is bad and good for me... If it hits on sunday, I get to witness the storm, but my flight on vacation is completely cancelled, and if it hits monday, my flight may just make it, but i miss out on a blizzard... So either way there are some consequences, and im sure it will be that way for a lot of people...



Sunday, December 19, 2010

First potential snowstorm fails, but many, many, more to come... Including a Christmas blizzard?!

So the first potential snowstorm was an absolute failure. The day after I put up my snow map all went dead on the storm, and all the models agreed the storm would form and sit way off the coast. But, believe it or not we will still get snow from the system, probably sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. The storm will pull just enough of its energy into Maine, that a backlashing storm will begin. Maine can see up to 10 inches, and locally a foot in some places, while the storm will lash a general 3-6 inches across the rest of Maine, and into Vermont, New Hampshire, and even parts of MA. I would not be surprised if we saw 1-3 inches all the way down to the tristate area, so look out for that as early as Tuesday evening, and potentially into early on Thursday morning. But we have much more important things to talk about and I'm running out of time.

The pattern is picture perfect... That is for a snow lover. We have an incredible, record breaking amount of moisture feeding from well west of Hawaii, all the way into the state of California and Nevada. This insane stream of moisture will continue to feed across the country with records breaking everywhere. Now here is where we come into play, from this moisture it is possible that we see 2-4 big storms along its path. The storms will stream right into the Mid Atlantic (some south of the mid atlantic, some north) and then bomb right off the coast. Now how do we know this? Well taking a look at just the satellite picture, clearly portrays the stream, and then looking at the models we see the first of these storms come... CHRISTMAS DAY!!!! We have the potential to see something that we haven't seen since 2002, and before that, 1969!!!! Now could this be just like the last storm where it looks like a significant blizzard and then ends up being nothing? Yes, it could be, but the chances are higher with this storm. Reason is because all the models are on this one, and its coming from the west, not gathering in the south, so it has to exit off the coast. So it is likely at this point we will see at least a decent storm in our area Christmas day, if not a potentially walloping storm on Christmas, so keep it here!

-Scott Pecoriello

Thursday, December 16, 2010

East coast blizzard on the way?!

Blizzard?! That is right!! The talk of an east coast blizzard is quickly spreading around meteorology stations around the country. This could be the first major accumulating snowstorm of the season for many across the I-95 corridor, and it may be a classic nor'easter with winds howling past 50 mph, along with 1-2 feet of snow!! But then again, it could completely miss, but the details are coming in...

I'll tell you one thing, I am getting very excited, and very hyped up about this storm. First things first. The European model has an incredible blizzard on the table for Late Saturday through Wednesday!!!! If this were to be correct, Washington D.C. could pick up 2-4 inches of snow, Phily could pick up 5-8 inches of snow, and then NYC to around Boston or just southwest of Boston, could see 1-2 feet of snow along with winds gusting toward 50 mph. However, if the NAM were to be correct, we could see virtually no snow anywhere besides maybe extreme coastal areas of ME. And of course the in between would be the GFS weather model which has about an inch or two in D.C., 1-3 inches in Philly, 3-5 inches in NYC, and in Boston a monster 2 foot snowstorm because this time it wouldn't change over to rain like in the European, but still either way you look at it, it seems Boston will be the target city with this one... Here are my current thoughts, which I'm going to show through my first real snow map of the season, not snowfall,snow map...



This map is more then likely to change by time the weekend rolls around, which isn't that far from now. Tomorrow is already Friday. All I can say is a big storm is on its way. At this point though, the impacts hold a lot of uncertainty...

Monday, December 13, 2010

Suprise Snow!!!!

I think I am more excited than anyone else for what started at around 6 pm and could continue into at least tomorrow morning... It was certainly a surprise, and definitely had some luck involved in it... All of a sudden at 6 pm, an outburst of snow started around NYC and just expanded outward, with flurries as temps dived down past freezing... At first, for a good 3 hours of snow, nothing was sticking, but then the pace picked up on the snow and the temps got into the 20's, so now we have a good half an inch to an inch of snow on the ground which was completely out of the blue... And its really hard to forecast this because this is almost like an ocean effect snow, as snow showers develop off the sound and atlantic... The snow looks like it will remain steady in this little patch of snow in the tristate, through around 4 or 5 am, and its possible that we have more snow tomorrow and wednesday... Believe it or not, up to 3 or even 4 inches of snow isn't going to be impossible to get out of this random piece of moisture... Thats it for now, enjoy the snow!!! Pray for no school!!!!

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Nice suprise snow last night, details on the monster storm are in, and the long ranger is getting me nervous!!!!

Last night was a classic perfect snow. My forecast that I put out two nights ago was pretty dead on, besides the fact that toward the end there actually was some organization, which I did not anticipate on. But non the less, lots of people picked up a nice dusting to close to a half inch of snow. It was crazy though, how accurate the future forecast was that weather.com put out. There radar was able to forecast 6 hours out that all the small little clumps of snow were going to come together and strenghten, which is something you couldn't forecast by just looking at the current radar output. But now the bigger news, the monster storm!!!

Sadly the storm that weeks out looked like an eastern seaboard storm, is now a complete midwestern storm where blizzard warning are now out. Someone out there is going to pick up 18 to 24 inches of snow ith gusts close to 60 mph! So a big one. As for us expect lots of heavy rain and wind starting after midnight tonight and last into after midnight and sunday before changing to a mix of moderate rain and snow, and then by monday we should get some nice snow showers and wind as temperatures rapidly drop to below freezing. The days to come after that don't be suprised if temperates don't get above 20 degrees for a high. as for the snow, its hard to tell for amounts. We may just have no accumulations or maybe we get enough cold air to come in to see a 1-3 inch snow total.

Just quick about the long ranger. I was just glancing at accuweather.com's 15 day forecast, and I saw mid and upper 40's and rain! We have to hope not. We want snow!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Friday, December 10, 2010

We'll take anything we can get!

All across the tristate area there are reports of flurries and even some snow showers... The air in the atmosphere right now is extremely dry, so even if the snow is on radar, lots of it isn't quite reaching the ground... But, over the last hour or two, a couple of the snow bands or squalls have been gaining a little bit of strength, which may continue here before all is done... A specific band affecting the tristate area looks like it will impact NYC and southern CT, from about 5:30- 8:30 with maybe a dusting... Its hard to tell whether or not it will hit and if it does, how much makes it to the ground... But we'll take anything that we can get!!!! This is only the second time I've seen snowflakes outside this season!!!! New detail is coming out currently about the storm this weekend and early next week... Looks like a big wind and rain storm for us, with some mixed precipitation likely on Monday... Any accumulations? Probably not, but its good to at least see some snow... Maybe next week!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Quick Update!

Just a quick update, I'll probably have a longer one tomorrow or Friday, which ever one works out better for me... I am deciding whether or not I should make changes for my snow map for Friday, and I most likely will... The system itself is going to pass way to the north in Canada, and the southern branch looks like it was sweep through the U.S., but I'm just not sure its going to be far enough south for snow in the tristate area... If something does come, it won't be organized enough to put up a snow map anyways, so for now I'm just going to say some flurries and snow shower will be possibly on your Friday, with Isolated areas receiving a coating to maybe an inch of snow... After that moves through the warm air will shove on in, and we actually may have a new problem... Who new that this storm could be a problem even if it doesn't snow... But let me tell you why I am excited...

The whole Tristate area may experience a really bad rain and wind storm on Sunday and Monday... We could be talking winds gusts easily exceeding 50, maybe even 60 mph... Along with rain of 1-2 maybe even 3 inches... So a monster rain storm... But now models are coming in agreement that the back side of the storm will quickly usher in frigid air in a short period, which is why I think we can still pick up a snowstorm or at least snow out of this one... So it may turn out to actually be one of my favorite storms... A Rain and wind storm and a Snow and wind storm... what could be better? An early guess of accumulations could be in the 2-4 inch range, but I don't want to get ahead of myself... And behind this storm we will be breaking records... Highs in the major cities could actually reach the upper teens!!!! VERY VERY RARE!!!!
Get excited!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Its cold outside... but its still going to somehow manage to rain :(

Don't get me wrong, it is freezing outside with highs trying to get above the 32 degree mark all throughout the tri state area including NYC... I know its been a long time since my last update, and I left off with "Since it looks like winter is coming, it seems I will be updating regularly"... Well obviously that did not happen... What did happen however was some extreme cold air along with lake effect snow, of which some areas in the Tri state got some snow put down, but no more then a coating... I usually like to just focus on the tri state area for the weather, and let me be honest, I am usually hopeful for snow, but it just doesn't look like we're going to get a storm that leaves us more then an inch or two of snow at least until late next week, potentially even later than that... I was very hesitant about blogging over the past couple of days, whether or not I should tell everyone there is a giant storm coming, and that we may indeed get a giant Nor'easter with wind and snow in the tri state area, and good thing I hesitated, because it looks like things have flipped... Everyone was getting so excited about winter and snow that bloggers and meteorologists were all saying how there is a good chance we get a decent snowstorm along I-95 in the coming weeks, but of course it just had to change... my luck... So let's check out exactly whats going to happen...

First things first... we have a weakish clipper system coming on by that should reach the area by Thursday... My current forecast is that Thursday into Friday we will have some snow which will be exciting, but not a lot... and I'm happy to be posting my first snow/snowfall map of the season, although it is far from anything really interesting...



So you can see across the northern areas of the Tri state we can expect generally an inch or two, although there will be someone who picks up a good three inches of snow, so far some of you this could be a real accumulating storm... Just to the north of the city a good solid inch of snow is expected, maybe more of a coating toward the immediate coast where some rain may try to mix in as warm air tries to settles for our next storm... The city could see some snow showers, probably very wet snow mixed with some rain, some people may see a dusting of snow here and there, and then south of that just expect clouds with a sprinkle or a flurry...

Just a quick summary of the big storm because it is so far ahead, the storm will take place late this weekend, so late Saturday into Monday, and as of now a lot of rain and wind with this one as the low will be developing right on top of us bringing a lot of warm air quickly, and then probably snow showers and wind behind the storm with some small accumulations after picking up a good 1-3 inches of rain!!!! Yes, rain... can you believe all this cold air was for nothing... well, I'll just leave you with something... The air behind this big storm will be even colder then now!!!! And even more storms in the future... KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED FOR SNOW!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello