For some, winter has gotten off to a slow and boring start, while for others, they've already seen enough of the white stuff. Overall, I think we can agree the Northeast is ready to get cranking on winter. We got off to a historically fast start, with a category 4 snowstorm in October that dropped almost 3 feet of snow over parts of western MA. With that, the only thought on everyones mind was winter is here! Wrong. Shortly after we warmed right back up and had highs back in the 60's and even 70's for quite a while. The talk of snow and cold quickly dwindled as people assumed this was just a short break before we'd get right back into the snow and cold. Wrong. Weeks, and eventually months, passed with a generally mild Northeast. Actually seasonable until we got into November. From time to time we would see interior events, but nothing major or widespread. Not only was the talk of an early starting winter over, but a new talk rose. The talk of a mild and snowless winter. Now were these folks pampered with snow to such an extent that they thought winter was already over... In November? Or were they just wishing for a nice and mild winter, and finding any possible backups they could to prove this winter would be a dud? It might be the first answer, it might be the second... The point is, both of them are wrong. The October snowstorm is what I like to call "bonus snow", or a "freak event". In my opinion, irrelevant to what the rest of the winter has in store for us. But still, others will disagree, and continue with there claims of a mild winter ahead...
Now that we are into the month of December, things have changed. The mood itself is one that is ready for the cold and snow. People wondering why it hasn't come to their areas yet. It is just a matter of the pattern folks. For the past 3, 4, even 5 weeks we have been seeing a rather flat and fast moving pattern that brings quick shots of cold, and periods of warmth with storms. Some might actually call it a typical La Nina pattern, which happens to be the pattern we are currently in.
I had been calling for this pattern to end on December 10th. That was yesterday... Any change? I explained this rather quickly on my page yesterday, but to sum it up once again, yes, there was a change. We are no longer seeing long periods of warmth and rain with quick shots of cold. Notice last night the coldest air of the season seeped down into the Northeast bringing teens and 20's to the I-95 suburbs, and even to the big cities themselves. Tonight will be much of the same. Highs today didn't even hit 40 degrees in the big apple, something I called for about a week ago. We will see the highs remain cold and seasonable through this week, with a shot of warmth at the end of the week, and then back to cold and seasonable by next weekend. It doesn't take a genius, or a meteorologist, to figure out what the change was. Rather then seeing warm weather with short periods of cold weather, we are now seeing cold weather with short period of warm weather. I expect that to become more dramatic as we head through the month of December.
But what about a true pattern change? A change that would finally bring blockbuster snowstorms up the East Coast and leave the major I-95 cities with big snow totals. When are we going to see those? Well, if you ask any of the major forecasting stations, they'll tell you it short and simple. Those areas may see a storm or two that drops decent amounts on the big cities, but nothing exciting. It's a typical La Nina, so we stay relatively warm across the big cities, and see a lot of rainstorms throughout most of the winter. WRONG. There is just no support for that. First off, it's more complicated then a typical la nina. We have an east based la nina. Want to know another year we had an east based La Nina? 1995/1996. Hopefully we all remember how that winter turned out for the Northeast. I think we'll just say the theme was snow. Interesting to note though, the season wasn't especially cold. Cold enough to support snow though, obviously. The point is, this particular type of La Nina can, and often does, support snowy weather... Something that these major forecasting stations seem to not want to mention.
Accuweather's winter forecast:
Famers Almanac winter forecast:
Another thing about these major forecasting stations... What happened to the MJO, the QBO, the NAO, the PNA, the AO? Where'd they all go? The only one of these mentioned on here is the NAO, or the Northern Atlantic Oscillation. A very key component to any winter, but especially a La Nina winter. It can be the difference between a warm, wet, and rainy winter, and a cold, wet, and snowy winter. In the simplest terms possible, a -NAO will support cold and snow in the Northeast, while a +NAO will support a warm and often snowless Northeast. The NAO is nearly impossible to predict, even with our extremely high tech weather models that we have in modern times. The forecast only goes out 2 weeks, and is often wrong. So what do these major forecasting stations say about the NAO?...
Again, short and simple. The NAO looks to remain POSITIVE throughout most of this winter season. Wait, how can they say that if the NAO is only forecasted 2 weeks out, doesn't winter go on for more than 2 weeks? And if it is so difficult to forecast the NAO, what makes them say that the NAO will remain positive this winter? Exactly. No one can say what the NAO will do beyond 2 weeks, if that. LUCKILY though, there are signs for when the NAO and AO (The AO is similar to the NAO in terms of negative and positive) will turn negative, and we are beginning to see those signs pop up... Boy would that be embarrassing for those folks...Again, it is rather complicated, but sometimes meteorologists will use the temperatures in the stratosphere to determine what might end up happening here in the troposphere. Currently we are seeing temperatures in the stratosphere warm up which, with a negative QBO (like we currently have), will cause the stratosphere to expand and have a cooling effect on the troposphere This sets off a domino like effect. Now we begin seeing deep upper lows develop, and the negative QBO supports the NAO and AO to turn negative. Then we are in business for winter. Now whether you understood any of that or not, isn't so important. The point is that you understand this event is currently taking place, and supports a true pattern change to take place in about 2-3 weeks. Once that happens, now we can start talking about major blockbuster snowstorms back to back for the Northeast.
Now to the more exciting stuff... The forecast basically from now right into March... Presenting you the 2011-2012 official winter weather forecast!
Zone A:
Expect temperatures to remain right around normal, with shots of colder and warmer than normal temperatures. Overall though, I believe temperatures average out right around normal. Late January and into early February these regions may see some very cold shots, and I do see the potentially for 1 or 2 winter storms to take place in this region, with the exception of FL. Florida, while temperatures will become chilly, will most likely not be experiencing winter precipitation. Much of December and the first part of January, as well as towards the end of the winter season will feature temperatures at, or slightly above normal. The theme for this region though will be the dry weather. I expect this to be persistent through much of the winter.
Zone B:
Expect temperatures to average out at below normal. Sustained cold is a good bet for this region, as well as above normal snowfall. Although this region will not necessarily be the "target" for major winter storms, there is a good chance these areas see a lot of moderate snowfalls from systems that produce major snowfalls just to the north of this region. The number of storms seen though, is likely to add up to above normal snowfall. The coldest air will come through during January and February, with the potential for snow into March and April.
Zone C:
Expect average to below average snowfall in this region. Temperatures will likely average out slightly warmer than normal. This area is likely to get a good dose of rain, as the frozen precipitation remains mostly to the north. However, as we head into the heart of the winter season, I do expect one or two storms drop frozen precipitation all the way down into this region. Overall though, I would say you do not want to be in this region if you are looking for cold and snow.
Zone D:
The summary of zone D is cold and snowy. Expect moderately to exceptionally above average snowfall across the region, with the potential for numerous major snowfalls. This region will be where the heart of winter is. For western regions, the above average precipitation will result in higher elevations receiving a lot of snowfall. For the midwestern regions, blizzards may be common during February, and in the Northeast, Nor'easters and storms crossing the country may explode off the coast and send plenty of moisture back into interior sections, along with very cold air in place. Lake effect events will also become much more common and significant during month of January, but are likely to relax towards the middle of the winter. If your looking for a good winter... This is the place to go.
Zone E:
Ah... Zone E... A lot I can say about this zone. One, notice it covers the I-95 cities from DC to ME. A very heavily populated area, and one certainly full of weather nuts. I could probably rename Zone E is, "The battle Zone". This region will be very interesting during this winter season in my opinion. This is where I expect the rain/snow line to set up, but the question is, where EXACTLY will it set up? It is possible that the line sets up at the very western edge of this zone, and that areas on the western edge, and to the east, see a lot of slop. Rain mixing with snow, and then going back to rain, or just all rain. It is also very possible we see the line set up much further east, and we get basically all snow events west of that line which would include most of that region. If that were to happen, I might as well extend zone D into zone E. The most likely of all right now though, is we see the line switch back and fourth between this zone. Some storms the region receives mostly rain or a lot of mixing, and other storms the region receives a whopping snowstorm. The point is, a LOT is unknown about this region right now. I can see everything from below average snowfall to exceptionally above average snowfall. At this point I do not want to rule out anything, but I am leaning towards a rain/snow line setting up further east...
Zone F:
This region will be plain and simple. An average winter. Now an average winter does not mean a boring winter. Just expect generally average snowfall, temperatures and overall weather events. I do see the potential for a significant icing event for the northern half of this region, and potentially even the southern half. One significant snowfall event is also possible for sections away from the coast.
Zone G:
The region includes Alaska only. Temperatures will be well below normal, with at or below normal precipitation. Although some of the coldest air ever recorded has come through the region last month, the region can expect very cold air to return once again later this month
Zone H:
This region include Hawaii only. Expect an average winter season. Temperatures may be slightly above average later on in the season, and precipitation may also be slightly above average later on in the season.
Zone I:
Mild and very dry. Very warm temperatures will occur during January, with dry weather to accompany it. Snowfall for higher elevations is likely to be below normal.
Zone: J:
Shots of cold weather with shots of warmer weather as well. Snowfall will be at or slightly below average. Precipitation will be below normal through the beginning of the winter, with normal or above normal precipitation by the seasons end.
Zone K:
Shots of very cold weather. Precipitation will normal throughout most of the season, but towards the end of the season precipitation will be above average. Snowfall will be normal or slightly above normal by the seasons end.
Zone L:
This region will experience "extremes" more or less. Shots of very wet weather, then very dry weather, then very warm weather, then very cold weather. Probably a repetitive pattern. Overall though, I believe mountains will experience above normal snowfall.
Zone M:
Very wet. Precipitation will be above average, and higher elevations will experience snowfall totals well above average. I believe even regions closer to the coast have a shot at seeing some snow, as temperatures will be below normal throughout most of the winter season.
To end what probably seemed like an endless 2011-2012 winter weather forecast, I decided to draw up something that I think most of you will enjoy...
If you thought my overall winter weather forecast was bold, take a look at this... I know a lot of Northeastern weather nuts have been waiting for a map like this. I don't think you'll get a forecast this detailed anywhere else, which is why I do not want people going crazy over. This is strictly meant to give people a general idea of where their snow totals will end up!
So remember folks, no one, including myself, controls the weather. The winter is in the hands of mother nature, and what you have just seen and read is my prediction of what she holds in store, for the 2011-2012 winter season. I hope you all enjoyed, and whatever mother nature brings us, get ready for winter 2011-2012!
-Scott Pecoriello of Wild about Weather
