Good evening folks. My forecast for a pattern change around the 10th of December, looks like it will finally come to fruition. For those of you who have a spot on memory (or can find my post on October 20th) know that I put this forecast out over a month and a half ago when temperatures were still hitting 70 degrees around the Tristate area! Not trying to brag of course, haha, but I am trying to point out to you that it looks like my forecast will become a success. So what is this pattern change? How will it differ from the current one we are in? And how long will it last?!? All those questions will hopefully be answered in tonights blog! SO without further or do, let's get started!
As usual, we'll start with our teleconnections...
Surprise, surprise... The NAO has once again decided to trend negative... Not like we've seen this before or anything (rolls eyes). Yes, that is right, it seems the NAO may ONCE AGAIN be playing its old tricks on us and show a dive negative in the long range. I can't say that this won't happen, since the current consensus brings the NAO nearly negative come December 15th, but I can say that this should be taken lightly. IF we can get something like this to stay, and advance as the days go on while staying consistent, then we can look at this further. But for now, just keep it in the back of your head.
The PNA on the other hand, is not like the NAO. Not know for these head fakes. This is why I do have confidence at this time that was see a positive PNA return, after we only briefly watch it take a dip negative. The current run shows it returning positive around the 15th also, which is something I can agree with
For the first time in a VERY long time we see the consensus track actually take the AO negative come the 10th of December. Interesting to see that models show it becoming VERY cold around that time. The AO and NAO are similar in their fakes. Often times we see the AO show signs of going negative and then it backs off and flips back to positive, so it will be interesting to see if the model can hold this current trend.
The GFS model has been doing it's regular flip flopping with the 18z (most recent run) looking fairly cold, with nothing really sustained. I think in terms of pattern changes, one is certainly coming, but will not be strong. As I said a few days ago, it will be enough of a change for someone who doesn't study or know about weather at all, to notice winter is here. We start with the 9th of December when we see a midweek system swing out of our area dropping mostly rain with some backside snow for the interior sections. Once it's out of here for good, we see the coldest air of the season swing down. This happens around the 10th of December. We see it sustained for quite a little bit, but once a system tries to come northward, the warm immediately follows. But only very briefly. Then we're back to the cold. If we can get everything to go correctly, it wouldn't be too hard to see some snow out of this new pattern. If we're lucky we can see a storm, but I think our first widespread event happens after the 15th.
So for those of you questioning whether this is really a pattern change... Take a look at the month of November, and even early December. Temperatures well above normal with precipitation overall around normal. Now we will see temperatures at to slightly below normal with precipitation probably at or just below normal. It will feel a lot more like winter. And again, it won't take TOO much to get snow out of this new pattern, and after the 15th we may really be in business for snow.
Last but not least, how long will it last? Kind of a tough question to answer. The pattern that we're heading into will most likely last a good portion of the month of december, with long blasts of colder weather, and dry periods, and very brief warm ups with some precipitation. I think we look out to the end of December to see the pattern that we're going into on the 10th change. I think we really see even a colder flip come the 20th and after. Look out folks, because winter 2011-2012 is here, and it is will be cold and snowy... We just have to give it a chance! Enough of this no winter! The facts and data are becoming clearer... All we need to do now, is put them together to make a forecast... Enjoy the last few cool days before it turns cold!
