Our "terrible teleconnections" seem like they're maybe trying to redeem themselves. Take a look here at the teleconnections from the Climate Prediction Center. Looking fairly good for a pattern change.
So here's the gist of it. The NAO is going neutral or negative, the AO is going negative, and the PNA is going negative. NAO and AO are a check, but the PNA not so much. The -PNA will help drive the cold into the west rather than the east. Not worry though folks, looks like a -EPO may save us. The -EPO will help drive even colder air into the country. While not as much of a help, we will also have a -WPO; just further helping with the cold air! All of this may end up giving us a gradient pattern here in the Northeast. What's that? I-80 on northward will do well with the cold and snow, while south of there will struggle. Will this necessarily be the case? No. But is there a good chance? At this point, I'll say yes. All the negative teleconnections usually point towards a gradient pattern, so therefore things are looking good for that right now.
Look at the next 10-13 days. EPO goes negative.
Look at the next 10-30 days. WPO goes negative.
The only thing that might throw all of this off a bit is our -NAO. For once, this will be a good "throw off" for the snow lovers. The potential blocking may make for bigger storms, and therefore give much less of a gradient pattern. I still can't guarantee that areas south of I-80 will benefit from the blocking pattern still, but a much better chance. Our -AO and -EPO will really help to drive the cold air into the Northeast.... For the most part it should cover up the -PNA.
Hopefully all of you now get the idea that our teleconnections are really pulling through for us, and this is the happiest I have been with them in a while. Mostly because of our NAO! Finally looks to go negative! Who to thank? Yes, you knew this was coming. SSW.
The stratosphere is really warming up folks, and while it has been for a while, it is important to know that now we have the warmth spreading into more layers of our atmosphere (specifically further down in the atmosphere). Rapid warming at that. This is likely why we're seeing a lot of things heading into a more favorable direction for a pattern change.
Looks what's beginning to happen folks...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif
Before we get started on the details of this change in the pattern, let me clear my mind for everyone. I am not sold on this pattern change yet. Why? The models have yet to really catch on. We've certainly seen a shift to colder long range weather from them, but it is not yet good enough for me to hop on the snow train yet. I expect that to change in the coming days though. All of these variable should be picked up by the models soon enough.
Now to what you can expect from this change. Not a lot of detail on that unfortunately. Again, typically when we see the variables like they currently are, a gradient pattern is possible. So, small to moderate snow events I-80 on northward, with a "rip off" to the south. But again, this blocking may be good news. Larger storms that can ride up the coast with heavy snow and strong winds; a classic nor'easter. It's just a matter of getting the cold air or not, which I can't see why we don't with such a -AO coming up and a -EPO. The point I'm trying to make here, is colder and snowier weather for the Northeast looks to be on the way...
The harder question perhaps is when... I'm going to take a shot (like I have many times already this winter!) and say between January 10th and January 16th for a pattern change. A wide range? Maybe, but the point is the middle of January looks to be a good time range. Will it be a dramatic change in pattern? Not really, but certainly noticeable if we get the snow going.
Just a quick look at one more thing before I go! The MJO!
A mess! GFS ensembles are looking very messy today! The story looks to be the MJO heads into the COD (not bad for the pattern change) and then back into octet 6 (also not bad for the pattern change). From there it looks to settle in that area for a while. Hopefully, though, we see it begin to go into a class counter-clockwise spin around, and we get it to go into octets 8, 1, and 2. Probably not for a while, but maybe later on in the winter!
REMEMBER FOLKS! We're not even into the second week of winter! Plenty to go, and good news ahead. Goodnight everyone!
-Scott P.
