January 26th. That is the date that stands on the calendar. Winter season ending, right? No! That is one of the number one issues here. People are stuck on this calendar. I'll tell you, the date and time of the season is very important, but only if you actually know the significance behind the date and truly know where we are! Too many people don't. The halfway mark of winter, on this calendar that everyone obsesses over, is right around February 7th. That's right! We're not even halfway there, and people already have their mind set towards spring. This whole sun angle nonsense, and not being able to get snow as we get into February could not be further from the truth (Just finished a semester in Astronomy, trust me, I know). Yes, the sun angle becomes an issue as we get into late March, but that doesn't mean it can't snow. It just means it doesn't stay around as long. So what exactly can we expect as we head into February and why? Let's look at... Everything!
Oh the absolutely lovely teleconnections. The king of our false alarms this winter season. Will they ever prove themselves correct, or bring us the cold and snowy weather? Take a look...
I guess we should start off with the most important and influential of them all. The Northern Atlantic Oscillation. I'll start off by saying, tomorrow there is a good chance this graph will look nothing like it does now. The NAO changes, and changes and changes. Only trust it in it's short range! Lesson learned! So if we focus on that, the gist of this is, it is going downwards. Dropping. In fact, it's probably going to briefly dip negative. Maybe even for a slightly extended period of time. After that though, its up in the air again. I don't even want to look at it, so stop yourselves now. Overall, I am pleased with the NAO. Looks more conductive then it has in the past for colder and snowier weather.
You can say this particular teleconnection has been on my list of favorites over the past several days. The Arctic Oscillation. Negative! We just need to keep it that way! Well that looks safe for at least the next week, and remember, we don't look past a few days on these teleconnections. Only thing that I am thinking while looking at this is, it's negative. Again, conductive for colder and snowier weather
Last but not least... My new favorite? I guess you can say that, considering looking at where it is going. Positive. The models are very consistent now with a very positive PNA. This is going to help with the colder and snowier weather is well.
So I want to take the teleconnections and put a big old check next to them in terms of conductivity for colder and snowier weather.
The force partially responsible for driving our teleconnections, and further determining what kind of storms we may be seeing, is our MJO. So lets take a quick look.
A lot of interesting things to note about our MJO above. One, look where it has been in the past. Hanging around phases 4, 5, 6, and the COD. Tisk, Tisk. That is very un conductive for a wintry set up here in the Northeast. Now take a look at where it currently is. Phase 5. Again, very un conductive for cold and snowy weather here in the Northeast. Now, take a look at where it's going. The GFS ensembles seem to want to take it into phases 6, and then 7. Not a bad place to be, and definitely a better place then what we have seen. The question is now, will it verify? If it does... The snow lovers may just be howling. But that's a big IF right now. Watch it carefully.
Ok, now I'm not "obsessing" over this run of the GFS because it proves my point, and gives us a load of snow. I'm looking at it, analyzing it, and seeing if it makes sense or not and why.
Yes, I am totally and completely aware this is the Long Range, 18z GFS models. Some of the worst weather accuracy. But for observing the teleconnections, and where the MJO may be heading, these solutions actually aren't insane. A diving NAO, a -AO, a +PNA, and an MJO potentially heading into Phase 7. That usually screams an east coast snowstorm. But, take this as a grain of salt. This will change, I promise. The question is, how much, and what will be the trends. I will focus on that in the coming days, but for now, it remains a sure mystery.
Now onto some of my own forecasting! Time to review my mid January outlook for the second half of January through February. For the most part... Success! Here it is again below.
So, let's hope for more success in the future, but as you can see, the general forecast has been on target. From everything with the above normal temperatures and warming, to the snowstorm we had last weekend. If the forecast continues to be on track, you can expect that colder and snowier February we've been talking about... I know some of you are crossing your fingers!
But just like to every story (including winter stories) there are two sides. So now for the dreaded moment. The warm side.
We'll start with our SOI values. Tisk, tisk, they're shooting up. Fast. This generally means warmer weather, so it's not what we want to see exactly.
Another long range look that goes against a cold and snowy February, include some of our climate models and very long range models. Here's a quick glance at a very long range model that runs off of our European model. That's nearly 60 degree temperatures around NYC during the middle of February... Ouch.
I feel it's appropriate to end with our "False Alarms" because that is what has been getting to people. Here's just a few of them.
False Alarm #1
False Alarm #2
False Alarm #3
For those who have been following these lovely teleconnections... You know there are more examples...
So what to say now? It's a battle. A big one. And it will be very interesting to see who wins. There are plenty of variables pointing to the second half of Winter 2011-2012 being very cold and snowy, and variable pointing to the exact opposite! Enjoy your evening, and try not to let your head hurt with all of this! More updates in the coming days, so be sure to stay tuned to "Wild about Weather"!
-Scott P.
