Now before I go any further, this is very important. I am not, nor will I ever, put down or "bash" an individual meteorologist, or a company. But what I will do, is give constructive criticism on this blog, whether they see it or not. I feel it is important for people to know both why I disagree with this company or individual, and where I personally believe they went wrong in there forecast, but I at no point do I believe it is ok for myself or anyone to critique them to the point that their forecast is completely put down, as well as their profession. With that out of the way, lets get started!
There have been a number of experts who also insist on this Winter being especially mild for the east, and feel that a good portion of the Northeast will see these warm temperatures way into the start, and possibly the middle of the winter season. How do they know this, and why are they so confident? Easy answers. They do not know, and they only appear confident. I'm trying to recall the last time a major company or forecasting network, or EVEN a professional individual was able to call an upcoming winter. Now you'll always have these nuts who have what I like to call a "golden gut", and are able to call a long range forecast way ahead of time with little or no backup, so those are the only exceptions. But Lets take last year for instance.
Here's accuweather's first shot
Second shot...
Farmers Almanac
And finally, a map made by an individual forecaster
Hopefully I have made my point clear that VERY few people were able to get last years forecast correct. Now I know I'll hear arguments about how last year was an exception, and that the NAO "happened" to go severely negative and thats what cause all the crazy blocking that flooded cold air and harsh storm into the Northeast and up the coast. I don't want to hear that. It should have been an option, at the least, and that option should have remained open. The point is, last years winter was absolutely historic with the major cities like NYC getting more than 200% of their normal snowfall. It doesn't look like a lesson was learned though.
Take a look at some of the forecasts for this year.
Henry Margusity of Accuweather's winter forecast
Accuweather's current winter forecast
A zoom in on our region of accuweather's current winter forecast
Farmers almanac's winter forecast
So hopefully from this, with maybe the exception of Henry's map, you can see the overall trend is NOT an historic winter like last years. But, for those keeping up with my page and Henry's page, you probably Henry has backed off of a snowy and cold Northeast. Now time to break it down, and tell you why I believe this winter we will be seeing the potential for another historic winter, or if not, another very significant winter.
Let's start with our La Nina.
Right now we have an EAST BASED La Nina, and I personally believe that's the way it will stay over much of the winter season. The La Nina is also weak. An East Based Weak La Nina...? That right there is like an equation for a harsh winter full of cold and snow for the Northeastern United States. Curious of another year when we saw an east based weak La Nina? How about 95/96, one of the harshest winters on record in the Northeast. Here's more or less of what an east based weak la nina will look like, although the map below is really more of a typical la nina.
While this is not my current winter forecast, this will weigh a lot in my official winter forecast that comes out on December 11th. Folks a lot of the facts are here, they are just either unknown or overlooked by many. Now we get into teleconnections again.
Take a look at the NAO. It's been trending more and more negative, and finally has now sort of "leveled" out. Meaning, it has become more consistent. No more real flip flopping. I like the direction it is heading in, and at this rate it would go pretty well with my forecast for a pattern change right around December 10th (which by the way is still being forecasted, and was put out in October!). Even if it doesn't turn out that way, the NAO may not go negative until late December, but the point is, it will eventually. And with that, we get the return of blocking, and with the PNA on the rise, before you know it we're really in business. As for the AO... It's wack right now... I'm waiting for it to settle down and come to at least SOME kind of consensus before really discussing it... Now I realize a lot of you don't understand this teleconnection stuff, so below I made it easier for you!
~Regarding the paragraph above~
NAO: Important things to know. If it is negative, we get the cold and snow in the east. Positive? Warmth.
PNA: If it's negative we get warmth in the east and it's cold out west. Positive and we get the cold in the east and the warmth out west
AO: Similar to the NAO. If we see it go negative, we're in the cold and snow business.
*It's important to note though, that none of these can do their job alone, and sometimes not even 2 of the 3. It's a group effort!
Now to wrap things up. I was doing some research the other day, and actually discovered something. OFTEN, the year following a strong La Nina, will be even colder and snowier than the previous year. NOT saying this will happen. But it is definitely something to keep in mind. And hopefully after all of this I have changed a lot of your minds about the upcoming winter.
Have friends and family that don't believe we're going to see a harsh upcoming winter? Simple. Send this link to them! And remember, you can always find the latest at my weather page on Facebook, "Wild about Weather".
Folks, we are in for another harsh winter that consists of cold and snow. Don't listen to these warm claims yet. And trust me, if I see any change, I will let y'all know! But for now, my forecast stands as is. Enjoy the rest of your evening, and have a wonderful Thanksgiving. And remember, my OFFICIAL 2011-2011 WINTER FORECAST COMES OUT ON DECEMBER 11th. THAT WILL BE THE BIG ONE!
-Scott P.
