Do not be fooled...

Let me tell you, that west of NYC, Philly, and DC, have had a crazy rain day today... The absolute worst for them i believe is over, although it will get bad again, if it hasn't already... The real area I'm concerned for is these major cities and to the east, where many be people may be starting to let their guards down... Well dont... Because nothing really "bad" has happened yet... not even really close to that... This morning we picked up more than an inch of rain in a matter of no more than an our here in southwestern CT... I literally thought to myself, if this continues, we'll all be underwater by noon... Crazyily enough, it stopped and it was bright and breezy for most of the day, which was something I had never considered, and something that certainly had never been forecasted... What I later found out was that storm part #1 had just clipped us, and storm part #2 will be the worst and come tonight, and then storm part #3... nicole... Will hit sometime Friday... So do not let your guards down because a bad, bad storm is on the way... Strongest winds are just beginning around my area where it went for 72 customers without out power to 533 costumers in a matter of hours with peak gusts at most 40 mph... This is why I fear for the next couple of hours into the early morning where winds will likely gust to close to 60 mph, and stay sustained close to 40 mph... Not just that but the rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour will kick in with that, and at times it will look like an all out tropical storm along the coast, and potentially a minumal hurricane... So bad stuff coming along, and the worst will probably start around or just before midnight... Thats at least when the rain will begin to kick in... Now times are moving back and quickly... Yesterday's forecast called for an AM sprinkle for tomorrow and clearing in the afternoon, while tomorrows forecast now calls for heavy rain and wind, with 1-2+ additional inches expected across many areas... So keep it here... Lots of stormy weather coming your way...

-Scott Pecoriello

Its Big, Its Bad, and there is no stoping it...

I really wish I had more time, but I can promise you that tomorrow I will be posting numerous times... We have a big one on the way... From T.D. 16, to Nicole, to now technically T.D. Nicole, but really a second low is forming, and will be the big problem... The way everything is going to develope and that is important, but more important is for you to know what is going to happen... 18... Yes... 18 inches of rain has already been reported around Wilmington of the past couple of days... we could get more than half of that closer to home here... I need to bring back this scary date, because its important to get this point across correctly... March 13th, 2010... School up here was out for a week, rains made the ground moist, with the winds gusting to 70 mph trees were down everywhere, and power was out for some up to 2 weeks... No over exaggeration when i say this storm may be similar to that... maybe worse for some... Since my time is running short, I'm going to wrap this up quickly... This is a very scary, very dangerous, and very real storm... It will do damage... Gusts up here are expected to reach 60 mph potentially, with 4-6 inches potentially 8 inches of rain, and into central PA, maybe 12 inches of rain possible... Crazy, Crazy, Crazy... Expect damage, and evacuations, and lots of lots of flooding... Thunderstorms of severe magnitude are also possible...

-scott pecoriello

Nicole is forming and currently is T.D. 16... East coast watch out...

As I type intense thunderstorms are rapping quickly around T.D. 16, soon to be tropical storm Nicole by tomorrow morning... The storm will pass over cuba before reaching a small body of water between Cuba and Florida where the storm will have its final chance to really attempt at intensifying... As of now most expect top winds to reach only 45 or 50 mph, really pretty minimum tropical storm strength... Seeing though, that the storm will then enter the atlantic ocean again once leaving the extreme southwest coast of florida, there it may try to strengthen a little bit more before making some kind of landfall in the Carolinas and then moving in a due north fashion up the east coast... Doesn't sound like a whole lot of trouble right? WRONG! First off its been raining for two, or for some, 3 days from florida to maine... Since there were drought like conditions in place before that, only minor flooding has taken place... But, tomorrow we can expect that rain to continue and then finally, Thursday will be the day where the east coast will be pounded by potentially 4-8, maybe 10 inches of rain!!!! Flooding, Flooding, Flooding!!!! The current forecast gives a catastrophic like scene up and down the east coast... Probably similar if not worse than what was going on across minnesota last week... I still think winds will be an issue, especially east of the storms center... expect sustained winds to be from 50-60 mph around the carolina landfall where gusts may get in and around 70 mph, and then toward the big Northeast cities, winds ranging from 35-50 mph with gusts probably close to 60 mph... west of the storms center is where the worst flooding will be, but a zone just in between both, may be where the worst of the storm occurs...



-Scott Pecoriello

Things get fired up again... The next 2-3 storms will be the big ones to watch...

Boy oh Boy... The season is ramping back up, but not the way it did before... This time our concern is not the classic african wave parade back in late august and through september, instead its the carribean development delema... (made that one off the top of my head)... This happens when the african waves are at least half the strength they were before, the waters are 2-3 degrees cooler, and the waves leave the african coast about a hundred miles or so to the south... Now the waves can't develope because the right conditions are not in place... So instead the waves are carried all the way to the leeward islands where the waters are now 4 or 5+ degrees above average, and most conditions are near perfect... from there the U.S. already has close to a 65% chance of impact from the storm... And then, it goes in three general paths...



The latest computer models favor only one of these paths though... It could be the most dangerous path, or the better path...



Through florida and then out to the east coast of the U.S.... Now the feared would be if it came right up to the coast and cause major problems...

After one passed up the coast, the models show the next one developing, and this pattern goes on 2 or 3 times, so the potential is there for more than 3 tropical systems to move up the eastern seaboard each with heavy, heavy rains, and very gusty and strong winds... So Miami FL to Bangor ME watch out over the next 3 weeks...

-scott pecoriello

Quick night time comments...

1. Julia is done, just a sea storm moving to the north... Amazingly Karls moisture is still hitting mexico, even parts of texas...

2. Igor is still on track to my last forecast yesterday... The difference is it should hit as just a moderate to weak category 2 storm, but still, similar damage is expected to my last forecast...

3. The next storm, lisa to be, could develop as early as tomorrow, or as late as mid to late week... The earlier it develops the more likely the storm is to turn north and maybe out to sea even though even the models that bring it north eventually turn it back to the west and some to the southwest so it looks to become a threat either way, but who knows whats going to happen once past the islands, or how close it gets to the islands... There it could still turn out to sea... But then again it could hit land...

4. For the last week now models have been very consistent with a gulf coast storm, better yet a hurricane... Yes we may even have Matthew on our hands come next weekend... Where the models point the storm will go may be catastrophic...

5. Finally, the left over moisture in karl may actually become a storm... Now the chances of it are low, but whether it becomes a depression or not, rain along with some gusty wind is likely, but flooding will be the main issue for sections of mexico and texas...

-scott pecoriello

Bermuda to be destroyed... Lisa coming soon...

Well, my forecast unfortunately continues to shift east, putting it dangerously close to Bermuda... For this not to be a certain death storm, every person on that island needs to be evacuated starting tomorrow, as well as have Hurricane Warnings posted all over the Bermuda Island area... It's hard for me to explain the conditions that Bermuda will feel from Saturday night through Monday... The storm will hover over the area for potentially 48 hours, that in reality will feel like a week... The coastline will be covered by ocean, probably as far inland as a half a mile or so before elevation climbs... Rainfall totals will be upward of 5 or 6 inches... probably up to 8... at this point I cannot be sure though... Winds sustained at potentially 120 or 125 mph with gusts close to 160 mph... Devastating damage will occur... Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. As I stated before, the storm surge will be incredible... Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Bermuda will basically be cut of from the rest of the world and become no mans land for potentially several days to a week... So as you can see, this storm is nothing to joke about... I fear the worst for Bermuda, which at this point, would make the island a living hell...
As if Igor weren't enough to be stressed about, Karl will slam Mexico maybe sometime tomorrow... I'm not so up to date with Karl, as I have been focusing more on Igor, Julia, and something later down the road... Last I checked Karl was a category 1 storm, with the potential to become a category 2 or maybe even a weak category 3 hurricane before making landfall... Mexico will also be absolutely devastated by this storm... Direct impact will actually most likely be better than when it moves inland, or maybe just equal... Winds will be over 100 mph where it makes landfall a good 300 to 500+ miles south of Texas... Even that far south Texas will still feel affects from this storm... Scattered showers with gusty winds will begin to be felt tomorrow, but conditions will improve shortly.... Once Karl is done ripping apart the coastline, he will move into the mountain area where he will sit and destroy... This storm will certainly go down in history... Floods, floods, floods!!! Mountains will literally begin to fall apart (Really bad mud slides). Karl could take a week to be all set and done...
Julia will be a nothing... At one point though it reached a weak category 4 status with Igor being category 4 at the same time, which made it go down in history, for that was only the second time that has ever happened... Julia will continue to weaken, now a category 1 storm, with winds dissipating... Well later down the road Julia will get wrapped right into Igor as they both die over seas...
LISA?!?! Do we really need another storm?...



Here we have all three, and the fourth concerned area... Just look at Igor... Massive... But trust me the east coast wont be so lucky for too much longer unfortunately, and same goes for the gulf coast... Take a look at where some of the most recent models are taking what looks to be the future Lisa...



Remember... Keep it here for the latest, and be safe...

-Scott Pecoriello

STORMS NOW GONE...

Well damage included downed trees and power lines for the most part... Some car accidents and structural damage due to the storms, but mostly minor... My town went right through the storm... Thunder was heard by me while the storm was in NYC!!! That really says something about the strength... Finally when it arrived, it rained like you wouldn't believe, with potential 3 inches + per hour... Lightning was frequent... But as severe as everyone thought it would be, it wasn't... At least by the time it reached me... The whole time i was waiting to see some monster hail and a 50-80 mph wind gust, but it just never happened... I guess we missed the worst... So for the rest of the night, a large area of moderate to locally heavy rain is moving toward us and should be here by 11 or 12 tonight and then a last strong band of storms which will probably weaken prior to getting here, will arrive at around 4 or 5 am... Stay safe...

-Scott Pecoriello