So again, I don't want to brag, but I think my whole forecast played out pretty nicely. Here where I live I got about 2 inches of snow before it changed over to sleet, freezing rain, and rain, and we were right there in the 2-4 inch zone. Areas to the northern edge of the 2-4 inch zone picked up, believe it or not, about 4 inches of snow! My circle of significant icing probably played out the best though, because that zone is currently being pounded by Ice. All that nice powdery snow that I had on the ground is now glazed over by a sheet of strong Ice, and right now my whole driveway is an Iceskating rink!!!! Ok so this storm will be out of here by later tonight, with all the worst for the tristate area practically over. I was surprised this morning to see every single school in my area closed, like I said should happen, but I never that it actually would because I assumed some of the superintendents would be just a little bit too stubborn to do so. But when it came down to it, I'm happy they took the safe way out. It's really remarkable though that towns that I can literally see from my window have not gone to school for... 1 whole week!!!! That doesn't happen up here. They had Wednesday and Thursday off from the 18-20 inch snowstorm, then Friday was a staff development for the area, and then Saturday and Sunday was the weekend, Monday was Martin L King day, and today schools are cancelled because of the Ice!!! It's really insane. OK, now onto other business... our next storm!!!
I honestly do not believe they are making a big enough deal out of all of this, meaning they should make it bigger. It is hard to tell from the models since they are still focusing on the current storm, but according to the NAM, another 18 inch snowstorm would not be out of the woods for the storm Thursday into Friday. Actually, in terms of snowfall and banding and winds, it looks almost identical to the monster storm we had last week; the difference being that this is one storm system, not two combining and bombing out. Now the CMC, GFS, and European have the storm there, but show barley 3-6 inch amounts for the area. So showing only 1-3. The only two on board for a good storm is the DGEX and the NAM. So why should this be made a bigger deal? Well if you can think back to a full week ago when few models were on board for a snowstorm, what ended up happening? A monumental snowstorm occurred. So i'm not exactly saying that we're going to get another 18-20 inch snowstorm with someone getting almost 3 feet, but I'm suggesting that the current little 3-6 locally 8 inches being predicted around NYC is a little bit of BS. I mean could that end up happening?... sure. Do I think it will? No. So Just a consensus forecast for right now that I would go with, includes the following (Keep in mind this is more than likely to change either way)...
Pittsburgh: 3-6 inches
Washington D.C.: 2-4 (5 inches possible)
Baltimore: 3-5 (6 inches possible)
Philadelphia: 6-10 inches (1 foot possible)
NYC: 8-12 inches (Locally higher Northeast of the City)
Harford: 10-15 inches (18 inches possible)
Providence: 10-15 (Rain mixes in)
Boston: 10-15 inches (Rain mixes in)
I would honestly guess that target zone to fall somewhere between NYC and Boston... So that thin Connecticut corridor that has been getting killed by snow (my house) looks like it will be slammed again. And I can't even begin to speak about the storm on the 26th. All I can say is that this mornings run of the GFS had a 960 MB low just off the coast of ME for two different storms!!!! This is certainly shaping up to be an absolutely historical Winter, and this should continue right through February.
Just quickly before we go, a couple posts ago I mentioned the absolute coldest air of the season and that day has shifted just a bit, but the temperature has dropped. From the 21st to the 23rd will be the COLDEST air of the season, and potentially set records. This is air we have not seen in years. I said before everyday I check on the temperature for those days it drops a little. It was like 14, then 10, and then I said it was 6... Well now it is 4 degrees, and I made a prediction it will be 0 degrees on the night of the 22nd, and it looks like that forecast will be right on! So just wanted to leave you with that freezing thought!
-Scott Pecoriello
