I am terribly annoyed with what is currently going on, but at the same time I'm happy about it. We look back at about 2-4 days ago and we see my crazy snow map for this storm showing a brave strip from parts of Long Island, through Connecticut, and right up toward Boston of 10-16 inches of snow. Yes, at that time I was hyping up the storm based on the model trends so far this season, and where they like to show where the greatest snowfall is, and then where they actually place the greatest snowfall. Then the models along with nearly every weather source completely demolished the idea of a snowstorm. For the models they weakened it instead of strengthening and for the websites and people and publicity, they showed top snowfall to be about 5 inches across the area. Seeing that models, and even weather sources, sometimes do this before a big storm, I decided to lower my accumulations but still keep them on the higher side of everyone else giving the general area 5-8 locally 10 inches of snow. After continuously weakening the snowstorm way, I was considering taking down my totals a really good notch... but of course, today changed it all! The models were not as strong or aggressive as originally, but showed a trend of strengthening the storm. This annoyed me because everyone down played it so much, that people aren't going to mind the storm. But now, if you haven't noticed, news channels that yesterday said the tristate area should expect a good 2-4 inches of snow, are now saying 3-5 inches, and the latest I've heard, 4-6 inches of snow. Well I'm not falling for it. The models are going to continue to strengthen this storm, so by getting ahead of the game I have bravely put up an area of 6-10 inches of snow. This storm will probably produce a lot of 5, 6, 7 and even 8 inch amounts in and around NYC. Then you get up to the favored CT area (my house) and then you begin to see the 7,8, and even up to 9 inch amounts... At least thats what I believe at this point. For my area, I am forecasting school to be cancelled tomorrow, but I can't guarantee that; for sure there will be some kind of school issue so at an absolute minimum we will see a delay. Now where are the 10 inch amounts? Maybe even up to a foot? I believe that will be to the North and East of Fairfield and New Haven counties. So that may include areas just barley north of Providence RI and on into areas like Boston. Could we see some isolated 10, 11, and 12 inch numbers around here? Sure. Is it likely? No. The reason I have so many areas in this 6-10+ range is because I think this storm will hold a lot of surprises. Meaning, an area like NYC predicted for 3-5 inches of snow by many, will wake up and have 6 or 7 inches. Not a big deal, but a surprise non-the-less. Its when the surprises get bigger where you have problems. For example, where I live up in Fairfield Country a 3-5, 4-6 inch range is expected, but I think the area may be waking up to 6-10 inches of snow which is when things get dangerous. For those of you that don't love the snow, don't worry because this storm will be super, super short. We're talking 6-10 hours. I say for the Tristate area we all have snow by around midnight, give or take about 1 hour, and the snow is out of here completely by 11 AM give or take an hour. Enjoy the snow map, and more importantly, ENJOY THE SNOW!
Just briefly, the storm next week at this point looks like it could be monstrous. I've been watching, and we have the potential for a powerful and this time, a long storm. Maybe more than a 24 hour period! Expect lots of updates throughout the weekend and into next week. The time frame seems to be from Tuesday to Thursday so watch out. But for now, expect the coldest air of the season to begin working its way toward us, with the coldest night looking to be Sunday night. Remember my forecast of 0 degrees on Sunday night that I made nearly a week ago?! Looks like it will be right on!
-Scott Pecoriello
