I was just waiting for the the winter weather advisory to be issued before doing an update on this storm, which seems it could be quite messy. We're looking at a similar set up to the last storm that brought the area anywhere from 6(close to the city) to nearly 30 inches(Up toward CT). So should we expect another 1-3 feet of snow? NO. This time the second low near the great lakes isn't going to move in quick enough to shove the warm air off to the East giving a Northwesterly wind flow, rather it will be slower and keep the winds coming from the south dragging in the warm air. So what to expect out of all of this? Well it looks like the Tristate area will have snow showers move in to the area close to the midnight time period give or take about 1 hour, meaning the snow should move in between 11 PM and 1 AM. The snow will quickly get its act together and it looks like somewhere between 5 AM and 9 AM we get a quick period of moderate snowfall before gradually from south to north a wintry mix takes over. The wintry mix looks like it will consist of rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and a little bit of ice. The hard part of the forecast is when the change over takes place, and when does the heaviest precipitation move in. If the heavy precipitation moves in between 5 AM and 9 AM (less likely) then we have a lot more snowfall around the area. If it moves in during the afternoon (More likely) then we'll have a batch of heavier rain and less snow. My current thinking though is that it moves in between 11 AM and 4 PM before lightening up. What does this mean? Well that wintry mix time period looks to be between 9 AM and noon before all rain takes over, so that really heavy precipitation may take place during the wintry mix! This would mean lots of problems concerning travel. Now for places like the city, I expect a quicker change over so maybe not as many problems regarding the wintry mix, but for places around CT and the lower Hudson valley, there are bound to be travel problems. Also the freezing rain seems to not be getting the attention it may deserve. It has been freezing the past week with snow on the ground the consists of temperatures below freezing. So believe it or not, the snow on the ground does have a small effect on the air temperate right above it, which may create a major issue. When rain eventually enters the last 100-50 feet (just an estimate) before hitting the ground, the rain may actually freeze up at the end just before making contact, and then when making contact it will continue to further freeze. So it'll be really, really interesting to see how it all plays out. A lot of shifting could take place during this, but either way I do expect a minimum of a delay tomorrow morning across the lower Hudson valley and all of Connecticut. Also north of the Merit Parkway and into areas North and west of Newburgh NY there is a good chance of having no school, or at least it would be a good idea. For those areas there is actually a winter storm warning for 2-5 inches of snow with maybe up to a half a foot of snow the further north you go. Believe it or not in the middle of typing this up, they had an update on the forecast, and now I believe even areas just to the north and west, and even along the CT coast will have no school or at least they should not have school because freezing rain may last until 2 pm! OK, so almost done with this storm. Last thing before I'm done is just the snow map for the snow and ice tonight into tomorrow. ENJOY!
Another snowstorm?! Mother nature has no mercy this winter season on the area. Well a monster snowstorm may unfold late Thursday and into the day on Friday with more heavy snowfall and wind. Lets start with the models and go from the least extreme to the most. So the GFS and the European show only 2-4, 4-6 inch amounts, which isn't bad, but just not good enough for me. Now we move onto the DGEX where a major snowstorm is shown with strong winds, and such a strong storm that some rain begins to mix in along the coast. Then the one I was most impressed with was the Canadian! the CMC (Canadian) model had a 975 MB low over Philadelphia Late on Thursday, with then a 969 MB low over Providence RI. And what amazed me was that even with the storm on top of the coast, enough cold air was dragged in to keep almost all the big cities in complete snow, with winds whipping way past 50 MPH. With that solution each of the big cities would get 12 inches+. Exaggerated? Probably, but you never know. The models are on a trend toward a stronger and stronger solution so we really have to watch this. Could this be a storm like we saw last Tuesday into Wednesday? Certainly. Could it be just some snow showers and a little bit of moderate snow? Certainly. Way too early to tell. Here's my fist shot at the system!
Before we go, there seems to be some model consensus on a snowstorm sometime around the 25th or 26th of January, maybe yet another east coast snowstorm? Keep it here for all the latest on these snowstorms, there will be many, MANY more to come!
-Scott Pecoriello
