I'm hyping, but it might work this time...

A lot to say, not a lot of time. First off I would like to just briefly talk about the trend. A small area of weather interest passed the tristate this morning with originally estimates of maybe a flurry or snow shower passing through the area. Areas across the tristate had a crazy commute this morning, and did not know what to think of it. Heavy wet snow flew down this morning giving localized 5 inches of snow! That is insane! For me in SW CT we picked up 3 inches of snow! It was really just crazy. So when the models showed this, it was a nothing. Literally some showed no precipitation, others showed about 0.01 inches of liquid which would be like a trace to an inch. Rapid un-expected strengthening occurred. So what does this have to do with this coming storm? Well maybe, just maybe this is a serious modeling issue! All along I have had high totals, and in weird locations and now the models are catching on, but still not to my extent. I have an area of 10-15 inches of snow with locally 20 inches. No model shows close to that. Mean while we take a look at the radar down south and we see tornado warning and flood warnings for a storm aimed at us. I am sticking with my forecast because that's what a good meteorologist does! Tomorrow I expect my map to continue to shift and change as the future cast radars and RUC's and all that mumbo jumbo comes out! It looks like for now the main energy will go offshore, which to some extent I do have to agree with. Then a clump or group of moisture that is left inland rides the coast. I think that is what the model is underestimating and flipping out over. It's very possible, and actually rather likely that this area becomes a define low that passed to our south bringing what my current snowfall map shows. Now in terms of the blizzard conditions. I am aware it says blizzard twice on my map, but you should take that word very lightly. It would take a lot for blizzard conditions to come together for this, but late Wednesday night, we could see a period of heavy snow and wind that meets blizzard criteria. It will all be very interesting to see play out, and we will see if I am able to nail this system. Enjoy the map!



-Scott Pecoriello