One storm down, many to go

So one storm is on its way out, and I hope it gets out of here quick because there is quite some snow melt taking place, which does not please a snow geek like myself. The cold front that will enter tomorrow after this storm gets out of the way, will set the stage for what could potentially be yet another major winter storm for the region. Even though the models are all over the place, I'm still giving a first shot at the snow map, since the storm is only 2-3 days out. This storm seems like it will be a very quick mover as it should come into the area Thursday late at night, and into the day on Friday, probably ending before the sun goes down. In that time period, it seems like this region may be on, or very close to the targeted snowfall. Before I move on I would just like to mention the region from around Islip LI all the way to Boston MA, and everywhere in between in that thin tiny area. In case you haven't noticed that area has been SLAMMED by Winter storms this season. So very 3 MAJOR snowstorms have hit that area, 1 or 2 moderate, and a couple that were more of a nuisance. That thin strip of region has been hit with more than 40 inch snow amounts, already topping there average snowfall for the entire winter season, with Winter not even half way through!!!! And it looks like once again, they may very well be the target of this storm. WOW. I am strongly trusting the NAM on this, since it handles these situations quite nicely. I am forecasting that little strip to get roughly 10-16 inches of snow, with some place probably getting another foot and a half of snowfall. Please keep in mind this is a first guess with a whole lot of uncertainty, and I am also going on a bit of a limb with this forecast. Most other models are still producing 3-6 inch amounts for the area, but I am thinking that the snowfall on those models will only increase. I was a little concerned when the latest NAM model came in showing a slight decrease in snowfall, but I believe all models (even the NAM) will begin to increase starting with the next runs. Enjoy the snow map and keep it here as a lot of changes are more than likely to take place with this forecast!



-Scott Pecoriello