I hyped it... just a little...

After watching the model runs consistently showing less and less snow, I decided that the small strip 10-16 inches of snow is no longer reasonable. Originally my thoughts were that the model runs were going to continue to strengthen the snowstorm maybe even into something that would act similar to our last major snowstorm in the Tristate area, but that is almost definitely out of scenarios. So any changes to the snow map? YES. Some really large changes too. Originally I had thought the storm would gain enough rapid strength that it would try to pull in some warm air causing rain close to the Cape and just south of Boston to Long Island. Now, since the runs show the storm further offshore with less strengthening, it should be an all snow event. With that said, it looks like those areas will be in the top snowfall zone with now an estimated 5-8 inches of snow, with someone receiving roughly 10 inches of snow. I will continue to keep the little corridor that used to be my 10-16 inches of snow, in the top snowfall zone with 5-8, locally 10 inches of snow. Still, none of this is set in stone. I still think model runs will begin to pick up the strength of this storm soon. I plan for the whole Tristate area to be at least in a Winter Weather Advisory by either late tonight or sometime earlier tomorrow. I plan for the NWS (National Weather Service) to eventually see that this storm is bigger deal than they estimated, and quickly issue a Winter Storm Warning for at least Northern NJ and CT, maybe even the city. If you haven't noticed, something seems very off about this storm. This is currently a nice, healthy storm system dropping up to 8 inches snow across portions of the lower Midwest. Now when a storm like that is heading to the North and East, even at a fast rate, when it reaches the coast it will almost immediately begin to blow up; sometimes even just sensing the ocean will cause the beginning of rapid strengthening. Yet the models continue to show it hitting the coast and actually having a declination in precipitation and then problems with strengthening, until it reaches a good 50-100 miles off the coast and even then not too impressive. Doesn't sound to correct. What should happen is if you're having a storm producing 8 inches of snow already, when it senses the coast it should blow up giving you a similar result to the last snowstorm that caused nearly 40 inches of snow in places. I DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT think that will happen. This is due to the amount of moisture it will be able to tap into it. Looks like it won't be able to get too much, if anything, from the gulf, and then models continue to show it struggling even to get the Atlantic moisture. Before I show the current snow map, one more crucial aspect of the storm... THE RATIOS. I just reviewed the numbers and it looks like a 15:1, 20:1, potentially even 25:1 ratio snow. Meaning for every inch of liquid picked up, 15 inches of snow would fall, hence the 15:1 ratio snow. Right now, while most models show .25-.45 inches of liquid in and around the Tristate, I believe we could pick up a good .5-.8 inches of liquid. If we put that into snow we would receive somewhere between 7 and 16 inches of snow. But I just took down my 10-16 inches of snow right? Yes, but that is because of the lack of confidence from the models, and other forecasts. So a lot to think about here. A LOT. Keep checking back and enjoy the snow map!



More updates on the next storm (Possibly late Sunday into Monday?) and even more (Tuesday and Wednesday storm, late week storm?) coming up soon, so stay here!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello