Boy oh Boy... The season is ramping back up, but not the way it did before... This time our concern is not the classic african wave parade back in late august and through september, instead its the carribean development delema... (made that one off the top of my head)... This happens when the african waves are at least half the strength they were before, the waters are 2-3 degrees cooler, and the waves leave the african coast about a hundred miles or so to the south... Now the waves can't develope because the right conditions are not in place... So instead the waves are carried all the way to the leeward islands where the waters are now 4 or 5+ degrees above average, and most conditions are near perfect... from there the U.S. already has close to a 65% chance of impact from the storm... And then, it goes in three
general paths...
The latest computer models favor only one of these paths though... It could be the most dangerous path, or the better path...
Through florida and then out to the east coast of the U.S.... Now the feared would be if it came right up to the coast and cause major problems...
After one passed up the coast, the models show the next one developing, and this pattern goes on 2 or 3 times, so the potential is there for more than 3 tropical systems to move up the eastern seaboard each with heavy, heavy rains, and very gusty and strong winds... So Miami FL to Bangor ME watch out over the next 3 weeks...
-scott pecoriello
