Believe it or not, I am a weather freak... which unfortunately means sadly your mind is rather sick... By that I mean, I was kind of hoping earl would take that westerly track and hit us... I know, I know, it's a terrible thing to hope, but having the disease "weather freak" is not easy... So... Earl has weakened quite a bit... It has now officially passed its strongest point which was later yesterday with winds sustained at about 145 mph with gusts upward of 175... Now, after hitting slightly cooler waters and currently going threw its second eye wall replacement, Earl has sustained winds at 115 mph with gusts upward of about 140 mph... The storm is now technically moving to the North at a very fast 18 mph, but here's the catch... Since this is going through an eye replacement which is when the eye of the hurricane fades out and a new one forms under it, the storm is likely to wobble and drift both back and fourth east and west... now of course the hope would be that it wobbles more east then west, but that may not be the case which is why we need to keep an extra close eye on this... Now onto Joe Bastardi... this is the man who as of yesterday still thought this storm could go more west then everyone else thought... Now today he is beginning to really back down and doubt the chances of that happening... He was really my last "hope", or for most "fear". So expect a very detailed video later tonight, but for now here are some detailed forecast of what is expected...
NYC:
Well the showers should begin to enter the area by 2 or 3 pm, although the timing isn't really worked out yet... Once the rain or drizzle begins it will probably be scattered for 2 or 3 hours with sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts in certain bands to about 40 mph... During hour 3 or 4 of the storm there will be an hour at the least of some sort of steady rain with sustained wind closer to 30 mph and gusts around 45 mph... Once the hour passes expect back to scattered showers and winds at about 25-30 with gusts to 40 mph... Expect rainfall to range from 0.25 to 0.50 with maybe an inch of rain depending on what bands of the storm hit... Just a side note, these scattered showers will be the storms outer and middle rain bands, with the hour of steady rain associated with the outer edge of the main storm... I expect the top winds in NYC to reach 45 mph at the most...
Philadelphia:
Scattered showers to start late morning, again timing is not really worked out yet... This should only be scattered showers and cloudy with sustained winds at 15 or 20 mph tops, with some gusts in a couple bands reaching 30 mph... by later in the day and toward the night all activity should be set and done... rainfall should be less than 0.25 inches, with the top wind reaching 35 mph at the very very most...
Westport CT::
The rain should begin at about 3 or 4 PM maybe earlier, the times haven't really been worked out yet... the rain will begin scattered for the first hour or so before becoming more in the steady category with winds potentially sustained at about 30-35 mph with some gusts in rain bands close to or around 50 mph... The steadier rain should last for 2-3 hours before returning back to scattered showers very late Friday night... Expect the rainfall for the most part to range from about 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain with potentially up to 2 inches if some of the heavier bands work into the area... Tropical storm conditions are possible after the first or second hour of the storm... Top wind should be at the very very most a 55 mph gust is possible but not likely... minor damage to life and property are possible... It is possible that a tropical storm warning is issued for the area as we head through the next 24 hours... It is even possible that the warning may be called during the middle of the storm...
New London:
Rain should begin by around 4 pm, but that is not set in stone by any mean... The rain will begin scattered and gust but it shouldn't take long for the storm to get underway and the rain to become a steady rain... sustained winds should be around 45 or 50 mph with scattered gusts to 60 mph... It is possible that the rain becomes heavy briefly and gusts reach slightly upward of 60 mph... Once that passes though, the rain should start to drop in intensity, as well as the winds... Still the winds should remain steady at 45 or 50 mph before finally dropping to a calm very late Friday night... Tropical storm conditions are very likely, and at times it may feel like a very strong tropical storm, but it is not expected to get as bad as hurricane force... Minor to medium damage to property and life... Rainfall expected between 1.50 and 2.50 inches with maybe up to 3 inches, as well as top wind reaching maybe just maybe 70 mph, but that is very unlikely... Due to this, it is possible, but not very likely, that a hurricane watch is issued in the next 24 hours...
The rest of the forecasts will be featured in the video... be sure to watch!...
-Scott Pecoriello
