Winter update... Winter is still coming!

*Excuse my lack of pictures! This was done on my Ipad, so it wasn't easy!*

Good afternoon everyone, I've decided to do a brief update on my winter forecast since well... We haven't seen much of a winter yet! I know this is concerning a lot of you, and that you're quickly giving up on this winter. That should not be the case, and you should know that I am not "giving up" on this winter, nor am I making any changes to my current winter forecast, which can be found in a previous blog post below.

Some of you folks just have to wake up, and take a look at the Calendar. I know that is something you're tired of hearing, but there are those of you who seem to have there mind set to March, so I think you just need to take a moment and realize it is December 26th. Yes, I know a year ago today was the boxing day blizzard of 2010, but the chances of us having another major blizzard around that time, a year later is very slim. It would be a miracle to have two years in a row of blizzards at the end of December. This boxing day blizzard of 2010 seems to be just another reason to say "winter is clearly over, because look, last year at this time we were seeing a blizzard!". That's just something you cannot say, and means little regarding our upcoming winter. A third reason as to why some of you have the "winter fever", is because you're snow spoiled! The last 3 years have been incredible in terms of snow and cold weather. While I do expect that again at some point this winter, it doesn't have to be as extreme. The "winter fever" list goes on and on, from trusting long range models to trusting teleconnection forecasts more than 48 hours out. A cure must be found! And I have faith it will... Hopefully this blog update will be the first treatment, but the to get rid of the disease completely, we just need some snow! And trust me folks, that shouldn't be hard as we enter the new year of 2012.

My current forecast for the Northeast for January is generally seasonable. The first week or two will be the trickiest and will determine what the rest of January, and possibly the rest of the winter season, turns out to be. If we see a colder and snowier first week of January, then you can expect more cold and snow as we head into the mid and latter portions of January. Right on into February and March as well. I don't see one week of cold and snow, and that's it. If it is particularly cold and snowy in the first week (week and a half if you must) of January, then that (in my opinion) sets us up for a cold and snowy rest of the winter. Now, if we see the opposite, a warmer and wetter first week or week and a half of January, then you can expect seasonable to above average temperatures with below average snowfall for the rest of January. As for February, I will still expect cold and snow, but not as extreme as what I would call for if the first week of January was cold and snowy. See what I'm doing? So we'll have to see if this little trick that I've created to forecast the rest of the winter, actually works out. It sure will be interesting!

Let's take a look at last year, shall we? I want to say 75% (maybe more) of the cold and snow that we saw, occurred in late December and January. That's a little more than a month, maybe not even. Think about that. If it only took 1 month to give New York City over 60 inches of snow, then why can't we see it happen again, just later on? The answer is, we can! Just historically, it is rare. But hey, if we take a look at the past three or four winters, I think we can say we've made some history of our own, so that is no worry to me.

But yes, historically, a cold and snowy winter is NOT in our favor. At all, actually. Let's take New York City for example. Most the years that NYC has seen less than 3 inches of snow in the month of December, they have seen seasonal snowfall averages well below what they should be. Is NYC going to see 3 or more inches of snow before December ends? I give that about a 20% chance of happening. So does this automatically mean NYC will see snowfall average well below average this winter? No! Of course not! Some meteorologists who are very into historical weather may say so, but like I said above... We've proven history wrong MANY times over the past 3-5 years. The number of extreme and historical events that we have seen here in the Northeast and around the country, continue to grow, which is why history is not a concern for me, at the moment. Again, these are current thoughts. We'll see where I am on December 8th.


Well that's it for now folks, and I hope you've enjoyed this short update. Remember, any questions or concerns that you have can be asked right on here in the comments below, on my Facebook page, "Wild about Weather", or on my twitter, @wildabtweather! Enjoy these next few days of warmer weather along the east coast, and some snow inland, because the change is not far away!

-Scott Pecoriello