Tonight expect scattered showers across the Northeast, with the potential for more wintry precipitation as you head further inland and higher in elevation. It's possible we get some light accumulations well north, as well as some icing issues. Right now though, I don't see this being a major issue. Tomorrow mild temperatures will dominate the Northeast as we see some heavier batches of rain move into the area. That storm will move through rather quickly, but as it exits later tomorrow night, the next storm will be right on the horizon.
This one has recently become interesting. My gut feeling is it is all rain for coastal sections, with a mix or some snow inland. Not a big deal. But, some models are beginning to disagree. A few models have began trending colder with this particular storm on Friday, but not by a lot. The most notable right now is the NAM. The 0z run has trended much colder with the 850's, but remains warm at the surface.
Nonetheless, the NAM shows snow being able to fall all the way down very close to NYC, with the potential for even accumulating snow 40-60 miles north. Whether the storm is warmer or colder, I do not expect anything too significant out of this. Maybe just a few wet snow showers to let people know winter is here, with light accumulation over higher terrain. 
I want to keep an eye on this storm though, since it seems like it may have a trick or two up its sleeve.And now the storm that I have been talking about for almost a week now, our Christmas snowstorm. I have said again and again, I am sticking to my guns with this one. And I still am. This is, until I see reason to change my forecast. I understand that we currently have a +NAO and that the GFS has a storm that forms hundreds of miles to the south of the Northeast and goes right out to sea. What I want everyone else to understand though, is that models are an absolute mess right now. I can go through a list of models right now and find everything from a rainstorm for most areas in the Northeast, to a snowstorm for most of the Northeast, to no storm for most of the Northeast. The models are a joke right now, which is why I do not want to change my current forecast.
REMEMBER, we look for three things. Trends, consistency, and agreement. Right now, trends are a mess because they are so extreme back and fourth, so it is almost pointless looking for them. Consistency is a mess on most models right now, with the exception of the Euro, which gives me reason to believe the Euro has the best idea on this storm right now. What does the Euro show? Right now we see a good snowstorm for areas not too far north and west of I-95 and the big cities. Even those areas get in on the action.
The Euro is VERY similar to my current map. Another reason I do not want to make any immediate changes to my map right now. And finally agreement... Hopefully from the paragraph before this one, you can tell how much agreement we have between models right now... None.So I'm just hugging the Euro right now... right? Just because it is the snowiest solution? No. Not in the least. I'm currently going with the Euro for a few reasons. One, it is the only model right now that I can see with decent consistency. Two, the Euro is entering its prime forecasting range... This is typically where it is most accurate. Lastly, the Euro has done pretty well so far this season, especially if we try and compare it to the other models.
GFS? Great Failure System? Looks like it right now. I believe yesterday we watched the GFS show a rainstorm on Christmas, and now we are looking at a storm that barely develops and scoots on out to sea. Not a good choice right now folks.
12z GFS
18z GFS
Other models? I've been looking over a few other models like the CMC, Ukie, DGEX, etc., but again, lots of issues with our three big points and those models right now. That's why I will stay away from them for the most part until we start seeing some trends, consistency, and agreement.
We move on to our very final week of December. A storm is lurking folks. Very little detail on the storm right now, but the setup continues to look decent. It would not surprise me if we saw a good snowstorm to close December out.
18z GFS
A lot up in the air right now folks, and like always, I'll be sure to keep everyone updated. Things are really starting to crank up in activity as we head into the 2011-2012 winter season. Just because we may be seeing sloppy storms now, doesn't mean we continue seeing sloppy storms in the middle of January and February. Now get a good nights rest, and enjoy the upcoming storms! Also, a very happy Hanukkah to anyone celebrating tonight!
-Scott P.
