Change will come with time!

Good morning everyone! Rough night last night, huh? Well, I warned people that this potential storm system that was very imminent on the 12z models, had about a 10% chance of staying on the 0z models... And what do you know... They weren't there! That doesn't mean much though. I know I sound like a broken record, but until people get the idea, I will continue to nail this into peoples heads. Remember CAT. Consistency, Agreement, and Trends. That should always help us with the models. Let's take the storm during the first week of January for example. Do we have consistency on the models? Very little. Do the model agree with each other? Not really. Are we seeing the storm trend in one direction or another? Not really. Instead it jumps from solution to solution, which is a sign this storm is very long range, and the models are struggling with it. What are we currently seeing? Just potential. The 0z's have almost completely gotten rid of the storm, but that is not to say it will not appear again. The models show a decent setup over the first week of January. The cold air is there, and so is an ok pattern. Not ideal, but it can support a storm.

The 12z GFS recently came out, and the moral of the story is... Cold! Something I posted about a few days ago on my Facebook page, but no one seemed to take seriously. In fact, I said "The coldest air so far this season will stream into the Northeast during the first week of January". That looks to be on track more than ever right now. The 12z GFS basically shows the pattern changing. We'll need to apply CAT to this soon though, because right now, although the GFS has been hinting at a change for a while now, it is just one run... Now we need a storm...

Regardless of the storm, my biggest concern is this pattern. I am done trying to pinpoint when this pattern change will occur, since I've discovered no one can. I remember hearing back in November and December that the pattern would change late November, and then I remember hearing even professional meteorologists talking about a change in the middle of December. I read multiple times the the snowiest part of the season for NYC would be between December 15th and December 25th. Until all of us, as a weather community, can figure out exactly how to forecast these pattern changes better, they're not worth trying to pinpoint. With that said though, that does not mean we cannot discuss what things will cause a pattern change, and give rough time periods. That's exactly what I plan to do.

We'll start with a popular subject. The teleconnections! They look just OK. Nothing too good, nothing too bad. I like to apply CAT to these too, just in order to determine how seriously we should be taking these. Let's start with the NAO...

CAT: Has recently become much more consistent, but continues to be VERY frustrating. After following this teleconnection for a while now, I have learned a lot about it. When it reaches its peak (fairly positive) the models show it going negative in the long range. Then as we get closer to that actual date, and the NAO does try and take a dip, the forecast shifts and shows it going briefly positive again, but still going negative in the long range. Then once it reaches another peak, the cycle starts over. Until we can break that, I really can't say the NAO is going neutral or negative. I want to watch it over the next 2-3 days, but right now it looks like it is on the exact track that I listed above, so not great news. Nonetheless, who really knows. It is showing negative in the about a week or two, so as long as it continues showing that, we're good.


The AO...

CAT: The AO has always been a mess, at least in the post few months, and continues to be. Not too much to say here other then do not trust the AO past 48 hours out. Something interesting to note though, is that it has not been showing the AO going very positive again. More neutral and even negative readings to come, if the current AO verifies in the medium and long range. But again, not to be trusted past 48 hours out.

The PNA...

CAT: Favorite of the teleconnections! Very consistent in it's forecast and doesn't change much from day to day like the NAO and AO do. It is also favorable for cold and snow in the east, but can't do that without the NAO and AO going negative. That's where our problem is. Nonetheless, it looks like the PNA will continue to stay with positive readings.

Another great subject to bring up right now is the MJO. Hasn't been in our favor lately, but the latest forecasts call for us to move into more favorable octets that call for cold and snow in the east. The MJO is often known for driving the pattern, and even affecting the teleconnections, so this is a big one to watch. The fact that it is heading into a favorable direction is BIG though. This may just be one of the reasons we keep seeing the NAO show negative in the long range. Now that we're seeing a more favorable MJO, we may soon see the -NAO become more of a reality. I'll continue watching this over the next several days.

And where would we all be without... The Stratospheric warming! Something I have discussed on multiple occasions. Delayed initially, we are now really starting to see some effects of the warming in our stratosphere. All of the above actually. Remember the "Domino effect" I posted about so many times on my Facebook page? Well we're in the middle of the effect now, and it all started with the Stratospheric warming... But I think we all know where it ends... A cold and snowy Northeast. The question isn't does this actually come to fruition, rather it's, when does this all come to fruition. Again, I don't want to pinpoint time frames, BUT I would say in the next week or two. We'll have to see! Things are looking up folks!

-Scott Pecoriello