This week, anyone living along the I-95 corridor will experience a piece of history. For the first time in decades, a massive hurricane will move up the eastern seaboard, and reck havoc. This is no false alarm or scare like we've experienced in recent years with storm like Earl and Bill. This storm will likely cause damage to lively hood and property for over 55 million people. The costs could end up being in the billions in effort to try to repair the east coast. The most extreme of the storm will take place over eastern NC, southeastern VA, the Delmarva, NJ, southeast NY, CT, MA, and parts of NH and ME.
From the beginning, even before the storm became an invest, there were many signs this storm was going to end up giving the east coast a hard time. Models, especially the GFS, had the storm going over the same places run after run. Rarely do models become so consistent in the medium range, but in the long range? Never. As the storm drew closer and finally become an invest and eventually depression, other models joined the GFS. Soon most models consistently had a hurricane slamming the east coast. Once the storm became named, the track became even more apparent, but was not yet where it is currently. Irene seemed destined to slam into FL before riding slightly inland along the coast. Thats when the eastward trend began, and models showed the storm effecting FL less and less. Finally as Irene became a hurricane it became obvious the storm would cause minimal effects on the large peninsula. Models continued showing a dangerous hurricane fleeing up the coast, and meteorologists decided there was a realistic possibility of this becoming a major hurricane at some point. As the models shifted back and fourth east and west, Irene became a major hurricane, and it seemed SC was doomed. It seemed charleston was destined for disaster. But the eastward trend picked up speed, and models began throwing it off the coast, actually out to sea. People, including weather locals and nationals, began letting there guards down. Not only did it seem the Carolinas might be in the clear, but it seemed that way for New England too. Then nearly 24 hours ago, The models made a shift once again. This time... west. The storm was soon shown at its "worst case scenario" on many of the models. It seemed it was destined for Irene to slam into the banks of NC as a major hurricane, and then ramp up the coast only slightly weaker and destroy the east coast major cities. Something that hasn't been done in decades. Then only roughly 12 hours ago, the models went even further west, bring the storm up I-95, and seen as the potential to cause a flooding disaster. And now, only hours ago, it seems the trend began ever so slightly east again, making the "worst case scenario" even worse. As of current time, that path looks to skirt the NC coast bringing major hurricane conditions, and then slid up the coast ever so slightly over water, before slamming into the Queens are and then into the Bridgeport, CT area with potentially up to category 2 conditions. The scenario lets the storm keep its strength, go at a slow speed, and destroy the coastline off to its west.
So what's next? Well as we speak Irene is slamming the bahama islands with winds up to 115 mph, and gusts even higher. After weakening slightly due to an "eye replacement cycle", and some shear, it seems it will strengthen once again and most likely become stronger than ever before. We could have a category 4 hurricane with winds close to 135 mph and gusts upwards of 150 mph, within the next 24 hours as Irene enters an area known for rapid strengthening... the southern gulf stream.
What can areas expect? Well here's my take. Enjoy and please be safe.
East NC (not including outer banks): Winds: 75-90 mph, gusts close to 100, rainfall in excess of 6 inches, major damage potential.
Outer banks: Major hurricane conditions, winds greater than 100 mph, and gusts close to 130 mph, rainfall in excess of 8 inches, major to extreme damage is likely.
Southeastern VA: Winds 70-85 mph, gusts close to 95 mph, rain in excess of 7 inches, major damage possible.
Delmarva: Winds 75-90 mph, gusts close 100 mph, rain in excess of 7 inches, major damage possible.
Eastern PA: Winds 45-60 mph, gusts to 70 mph, rain in excess of 5 inches, damage is possible.
Western NJ: Winds 50-65 mph, gusts to 74 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, damage possible.
Coastal NJ: Winds 70-90 mph, gusts to 100 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.
Southeastern NY state: Winds 60-80 mph, gusts to 90 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.
Long Island: Winds 75-100 mph, gusts to 110 mph, rain in excess of 10 inches, major damage is possible to likely.
Southwestern CT: Winds 75-95 mph, gusts to 105 mph, rain in excess of 10 inches, major damage is possible to likely.
South central CT: Winds 70-85 mph, gust to 90 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage is possible.
Southeastern CT: Winds 65-80 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 5 inches, moderate to major damage is possible
Northern CT: Winds 60-80 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, moderate to major damage is possible.
Western MA: Winds 50-70 mph, gusts to 80 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches, moderate damage is possible.
Eastern MA: Winds 55-75 mph, gust to 85 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, moderate damage is possible.
RI: Winds 60-75 mph, gusts to 90 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, moderate damage is possible.
Philadelphia: Winds 55-65 mph, rain in excess of 6 inches is possible, some damage to moderate damage is possible.
NYC: Winds 65- 85 mph, gusts to 95 mph, rain in excess of 8 inches, major damage possible.
Boston: Winds 55-75 mph, gusts to 85 mph, rain in excess of 4 inches, some damage to moderate damage is possible.
Remember stay safe, and have a plan now, before the storm rolls in. Check back here for more updates throughout the entire weekend.
