The models are at it again... And so is history... Typically the peak of hurricane season comes in September, and then things rapidly quiet down, but in mid october there is a second mini peak, where the number of storm increase, before decreasing for the final time...
So what are they showing? Well Otto has formed and is certainly a tropical storm, and even a strong one at that, but not going to do anything. It should continue on its Northeasterly track out to sea, maybe eventually affecting part of Europe as an extra tropical rainstorm.
But where the concern comes in is over the next 3-14 days and past that. Typically, as show in the graph at the top of your screen, this second peak occurs between october 10th and 20th, and that is exactly what is expected to happen. The next storm on this list is Paula... Models currently show energy off of Cancun that will kind of sit and turn for a couple days... Some models turn it into something and throw it south of Florida and out into the atlantic like Otto, and some show nothing developing and then way later maybe something comes up the east coast sort of related to the system, or just the systems engergy... But after that, the models go crazy... here's what I mean
I do believe the JMA model is over doing things, but still, 6 or more storms are predicted here... That is crazy... And you can see the one heading up the east coast...
And finally, before we go, models have been fairly consistant showing a new pattern taking place in the U.S. And that is the major fronts coming down from canada... This is typical for fall and winter, but, the waters are warm enough, and the energy in the atlantic is strong enough that one of these could develope and hang over the northeast for a while with heavy rain and strong winds so something to watch for as shown in the GFS... unfortunatly i can't copy that over to the blog, so you're going to have to look for yourselves if you want to view it...
-Scott pecoriello
