I meant to do a post a long time ago on this... In fact I got half way done with one about 3 days ago and then deleted it because I didn't have the time to finish... Anyways, if you can remember back to my last post, maybe a week or less, I said models kept trying to put out a weak front that would explode into an east coast monster... I also said that I agreed with the models that this would happen... Now I don't want to say, I told you so, but I told you so... At least the models did... A very good job on there part... So now to the details...
Currently this weak front is now entering the Ohio Valley... to me it already looks like a healthy system... The next step however is for a low to develop probably just of the coast of NJ... When it first develops there will be a blob of moderate to heavy rain, and almost no wind... This will be right around the Delaware area... As it moves to the northeast though, it will rapidly intensify and all of a sudden winds will start gusting around 30 mph in NJ with the blob of rain now larger, stronger, and more like a nor'easter... Once reaching the big apple it will be a monster of a system, you may even begin to pick up an eye like structure on radar... Looks like the center of the system will pass right over NYC... at this point the heavy rain and wind will have not only intensified, but will now be rapped around most of the storm... Conditions will be really bad... then the center of the system will move off to Boston where conditions will only get worse and then back inland as the storm begins to wrap up... Now a little thing with wrapping up... This is when the storm gives its last major punch of energy... So its possible a kick of very strong winds hit the big cities, in fact likely, after all the rain is done with... When the storm hit Maine though it may be at its strongest... another thing, yes you've probably heard the exciting new for the chance of some snow in the higher elevations... There's a good chance if it does snow, it will be whiteout, and a good chance of a short period of blizzard conditions... Only at the very end of the storm though, when it looks like a quick burst of cold air will come through... Some areas in the highest elevation may pick up a quick 3-6 inches!... With all this going on the outcome may be really bad... expect lots of power outages along with lots of downed trees... not only that but the roads will be a mess considering it is fall and all the leaves are changing and falling... This could be a very messy situation especially if you're traveling... Ok now to the very detailed local forecasts... just to sum everything up...
Washington DC: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 15-25 (gusting to 40)
Philly: 1-3 inches of rain, winds 20-30 (gusting to 45)
NYC: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-35 (gusting to 50)
Westport: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 25-40 (gusting to 55)
Boston: 2-4 inches of rain, winds 30-45 mph (gusting to 60)
Portland 2-5 inches of rain, winds 35-45 mph (gusting to 65)
That's it for now... check back tomorrow for lots of updates... just before I go, try to remember the remnants of Nicole 2 weeks ago... It probably going to be a similar storm wind wise, with less rain... But more of a combination... so pretty similar results... bottom line... big storm on the way...
-Scott Pecoriello
