I never thought I'd be blogging about snow this late in the season... especially this much!

This is the third time that I have had to blog about a spring snowstorm for the tri-state area! Really an absolutely incredible season of snow that will not be soon forgotten. This storm is very different though. First off the storm is a nor'easter, which happens often in the month of March but not always into early april; normally this late in the season you'd expect a nor'easter with heavy rains and strong winds, but that also looks like it is not going to be the case. So you can see this is a fairly rare event, but believe it or not it has happened in the past.

Two good examples are the nor'easter's in 1982 and 2003. 1982 was a very rare event that left NYC with 10 inches of snow and parts of NY state with over 2 feet! Winds reached 60 mph, and power was out everywhere. It set many records in many places including Newark which received 13 inches of snow and then the next day set a record low of 19 degrees in the morning.

April 6th, 1982


The other example is April 2003, where 5-8 inches of heavy wet snow fell across the NJ area.



Will this go down on the list of rare April snowstorms? I would say at this point, yes. Reason being, models are actually coming to a somewhat fair consensus that I-95, or parts of I-95, may be in for a snow event. In fact, if everything goes "perfectly", this certainly has the potential to be a historical storm. This is my current thinking on the storm in terms of totals, but I'm sure a lot will have to be shifted and moved around.



Keep tune, for change is likely with this system; beware.

-Scott Pecoriello

Winter part 2 is here!

We really stopped winter right in the beginning of February, after being absolutely decked by snow through the months of December and January, with nearly record falling snow. After mid february, many announced winter over, but some (including myself of course) continued to hang onto the idea of a winter part two. I was thinking late February into March. But, turns out we hit record warmth during those periods! And I cannot believe I am saying this, but winter part two is still coming! Yeah, its March 22nd, and this new pattern begins... now! I am announcing that we are currently entering a stage that we haven't been in since the middle of march when we had back to back to back blizzards and snowstorms! And, it continues to look better and better for the tristate area in terms of snow. Now to the details on the next 2-3 weeks of "Winter".

Its pretty Ironic how the last couple days of winter actually broke record high temperatures across the entire tristate area, and then on the first official day of spring there was accumulating snow across the whole area. That was mother natures signal to everyone that winter was not planning to give up that easily. We're looking at a really classic winter set up going on over the next 2-3 weeks right into April. The -NAO is keeping plenty of cold air in place. In fact, the NAO hasn't been as negative as it is about to become since mid January! The positive PNA that is in place is also helping out quite nicely to give the area a good chance for snow.

It looks like we will be having our first storm coming through the area tonight into the day on Thursday! Still, around 12 hours away, there is a load of uncertainties. For now I must give it my best shot though.

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Now before anyone gets too excited or disappointed,I must say that this map was made yesterday, and is going to need quite a few tweaks to it, but it has the general idea. For example, I no longer think NYC will be receiving 4-6 inches of snow; 2-4 seems to be most reasonable at this point.

Details on the next storm should be introduced here on Thursday and Friday, and those days will also include details on the storm after that! The way it looks now is we will eventually see a major snowstorm take shape along the eastern seaboard.

-Scott Pecoriello

Late night snow map for current storm

-Scott Pecoriello

First of many storms!

Just a real quick update... We have a nice storm under way for the whole tristate area. I believe everyone in the area will pick up a minimum of 3 inches of snow, which is why the whole area is in a winter weather advisory. I would not be surprised if certain areas were upped to a winter storm warning. Reason being, someone will likely pick up 8 inches before all is done. The bulls eyed area, as of right now, is northern NJ into southern CT. I think a general 4-7 inches of snow is a good bet, with again, someone picking up 8 inches of snow. Snow will begin from west to east from 10-12 PM.


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Winter is back

I am aware that I have not updated in a couple weeks now, and that is for a couple reasons. One being that I had called for the first week of February to be the worst of winter. That did not work out as the first storm turned out to be rain, and the second one was a complete miss. The models were an absolute mess for that week, so were the public and national weather services, and so was I!!!! Anyways that is all done now, but the effects of that storm missing are still in place. Temperatures in the major I-95 citites currently have temperates anywhere from 50 degrees to 70 degrees in mid to late February. We like to call this a thaw. Typically winter has two halfs to it, more or less. One takes place december into early January, and the other takes place early to mid February, and into early March, with a thaw in between (Keep in mind this is just relevant for the Northeast) This year our pattern has been much different however. We've had the first half of winter start in late december and go up until a couple weeks ago in late January. Now we are in a thaw. Given the usual winter, that means we are soon in for the second half of winter. Already plenty of signs of that coming. More details on what is to come soon!

-Scott Pecoriello


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Busiest week of Winter coming up?!

I have a strong belief that starting on Monday the 7th of February, we will have the craziest week of Winter, which should last into Friday the 11th of February. I'm sure you're wondering what could possibly be going on that would make this coming week the wildest week of Winter this season, based on the wildness we've already had, and the answer to that is not simple. We'll start the week with an Arctic front moving through late Monday into Tuesday. This will do two things, both major. One it will bring very cold air with it, setting the stage for whatever comes later in the week to likely be in the form of snow, and two, it will bring a storm of it's own with it. About 2 or 3 days ago, models were really showing this storm being a non event. Maybe a couple of flurries, and at best a snow shower with some wind. However, yesterday the models began to turn this into a bigger system, potentially dropping 6 or more inches of snow with a good wind coming with and behind it causing potential blizzard conditions. And today, of course, the models have basically discarded it like before, and show snow showers coming through Monday night into Tuesday with some windy conditions. I'm not buying it... I think at a minimum the Tristate area gets some snow and sleet or freezing rain to begin, quickly changing over to a light to moderate snow lasting all the way into Tuesday afternoon. For now, I would say the Tristate area as a whole sees a general 2-4 inches with locally more by later Tuesday. I am trying to express though, that this is at a minimum. I have a feeling that the models will likely show this storm again, and even if they don't, it could still happen that we see a general 6-12 inches of snow with locally more, along with strong winds and blizzard conditions. So definitely something to watch for. So the week already begins wild, and what's next? Well, earlier I mentioned this would also bring cold air to set the stage for a late week storm, and thats exactly what may happen. Loads of moisture seems to develop in the gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Meanwhile cold air remains in the east from the arctic front. What happens when loads of moisture meets up with cold air, and a strengthening low? I think that means... Major Blizzard? Yes, there is the potential that come late week, we see a major blizzard come together for us. This is still 4 or 5 days out, so the possibilities are endless. We could see a storm that tracks to the west giving us a major rain and wind storm, with a little bit of snow on the back side (unlikely scenario). We could see a storm that tracks to far east and goes out to see giving us a complete miss (More likely). And yes, we could see a storm that tracks perfectly in the middle giving us a monster blizzard that would likely change the pattern we are currently in. And of course, theres a whole lot of in between tracks this storm could take. This storm could be Wednesday night into Friday!!! That would give this week absolutely no breaks. Monday into Tuesday storm, and then Wednesday into Friday storm, both potentially major. Lots coming up, keep checking back here for many updates throughout this whole week of wild weather.

-Scott Pecoriello

Right to the next storm, but first a short recap!

This morning many people across the tristate area woke up to something that hasn't been seen in years... A good accumulation of Ice!!!! Across the area there were reports ranging from 0.25 inches (areas further to the south) all the way to more than 1 inch of accumulated ice across areas into northern NJ and CT. The NWS did an absolutely atrocious job with the storm. For Southwestern CT, we first saw a winter storm watch, then a winter storm warning, then a freezing rain warning, and then an Ice storm warning. I can't be too tough on them though, because my forecast basically matched theirs during the winter storm warnings... Anyways areas were covered in a really good thin but strong layer of ice this morning making travel impossible for some. The freezing rain had a lot of trouble changing over to anything non frozen due to how fast the storm moved, not allowing enough time for temperatures to warm up while anything was falling. There were a wide range of reports from this storm. I've heard anything from a couple fallen branches, to full trees crushing houses. Power outages were very widespread in areas, but tonight most of them have been restored. Something surprised me though in the last couple of hours though... The NWS actually put up winter weather advisories for areas from hartford on eastward for the remnants of whatever was left out in the west this morning. They think generally 1-3 inches could be picked up from whatever moves through, but that seems on the high side. I would just say some areas could pick up a quick coating of snow, with localized 1 inch amounts towards the extreme east coast. This will certainly be a storm to remember as areas even such as NYC picked up over a half inch of Ice! Central park recorded right around 0.60 inches of ice, sleet, and freezing rain...

Yes there is another storm. No, this will not compare at all to any of the systems we've seen so far this winter. My current forecast calls for mostly rain with some mixing toward the end of the storm from D.C. to Baltimore, while Philly will probably see rain going to a wintry mix and ending as a period of snow. DC and Baltimore should pick up only an inch or two of snow, but the further west you go, I could see more 3, 4, and 5 inch amounts, especially toward the apps. In Philly I see a general 2-4 inches of snow, with locally 5 inches, especially as you work your way west of the city. In fact if you go far enough west I believe you could see more 6 and 7 inch amounts. Once you head up toward the NYC area I believe there will be sprinkles quickly changing to sleet and snow, before going to all snow during most of saturday. I think a general 4-6 inches is in order for the area, but if you go to the north and west of the city that's where the jackpot will be for this storm. I think someone in there will pick up 6-10 inches of snow, but it should not be widespread. Even in and around the city I would not be surprised if there were localized 7 and 8 inch amounts. Then when you had up to the NYC to Boston corridor along the I-95 I believe it will be mostly snow, maybe a few sleet pellets to begin with the snow. Those areas will see probably a good 5-8 inches of snow with again maybe someone picking up 10 inches or so. Boston is also included in the 5-8 inch zone with locally 10 inches. Keep checking back as it seems we have another storm coming on into the middle of next week!

-Scott Pecoriello