Isaac vs. Irene

What are the chances that here we are again in late August with an "I" named storm that is in almost the same exact position that Irene was in only one year ago? Not only that, but we are seeing the same exact strength and model trends with this storm that we saw with Irene. It's really incredible. Now does that mean that Isaac is bound to make its way up the east coast like Irene did? Not necessarily, but it is a major leading factor in why I believe the storm will end up further northeast than currently shown on models... Let's take a look!

Irene

Isaac

Yesterday afternoon.Irene (left) and Isaac (Right).

Irene

Isaac

It's the same models doing the same things. We see them bring the storm to the south and weaker because at the time the storm is weaker itself. Then we see the storm develop and we slowly see a trend to the north and east... Exactly what we're currently dealing with for Isaac. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLLqXnGQ_KM Check out the video above. Shows all the latest trends and thoughts on Irene last year. If you watch the whole video it's amazing to see meteorologists actually thinking Irene was heading into FL or the Gulf... Very similar to what is going on now.

The shift in models are already beginning. You can just tell from tonights 00z's, we don't even have any of the models taking the storm into the GOM so far... That's a significant shift. The 00z GFS follows this trend, taking the storm just inland and scraping the entire east coast.

You're looking at the main reasons the models do this shifting... Storm strength. Look how organized and strong Isaac is looking already. Strong storm = greater rise in latitude.

Donna 1960

Bertha 1996

Floyd 1999 Possible analogs for the storm are posted above. Do not pay attention to the exact strength... Just the tracks. Of the 3, I think Donna is a very interesting one and for now the most likely. I think a combination of all 3 though works best.

Last but not least, my latest map. An updated one will be coming out tomorrow morning, but my current one still agrees with my latest thoughts. Sorry the blog was thrown together so quickly! More updates to come tomorrow and over the next week as we track a potentially devastating hurricane heading towards the United States! -Scott P.