I have a strong belief that starting on Monday the 7th of February, we will have the craziest week of Winter, which should last into Friday the 11th of February. I'm sure you're wondering what could possibly be going on that would make this coming week the wildest week of Winter this season, based on the wildness we've already had, and the answer to that is not simple. We'll start the week with an Arctic front moving through late Monday into Tuesday. This will do two things, both major. One it will bring very cold air with it, setting the stage for whatever comes later in the week to likely be in the form of snow, and two, it will bring a storm of it's own with it. About 2 or 3 days ago, models were really showing this storm being a non event. Maybe a couple of flurries, and at best a snow shower with some wind. However, yesterday the models began to turn this into a bigger system, potentially dropping 6 or more inches of snow with a good wind coming with and behind it causing potential blizzard conditions. And today, of course, the models have basically discarded it like before, and show snow showers coming through Monday night into Tuesday with some windy conditions. I'm not buying it... I think at a minimum the Tristate area gets some snow and sleet or freezing rain to begin, quickly changing over to a light to moderate snow lasting all the way into Tuesday afternoon. For now, I would say the Tristate area as a whole sees a general 2-4 inches with locally more by later Tuesday. I am trying to express though, that this is at a minimum. I have a feeling that the models will likely show this storm again, and even if they don't, it could still happen that we see a general 6-12 inches of snow with locally more, along with strong winds and blizzard conditions. So definitely something to watch for. So the week already begins wild, and what's next? Well, earlier I mentioned this would also bring cold air to set the stage for a late week storm, and thats exactly what may happen. Loads of moisture seems to develop in the gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Meanwhile cold air remains in the east from the arctic front. What happens when loads of moisture meets up with cold air, and a strengthening low? I think that means... Major Blizzard? Yes, there is the potential that come late week, we see a major blizzard come together for us. This is still 4 or 5 days out, so the possibilities are endless. We could see a storm that tracks to the west giving us a major rain and wind storm, with a little bit of snow on the back side (unlikely scenario). We could see a storm that tracks to far east and goes out to see giving us a complete miss (More likely). And yes, we could see a storm that tracks perfectly in the middle giving us a monster blizzard that would likely change the pattern we are currently in. And of course, theres a whole lot of in between tracks this storm could take. This storm could be Wednesday night into Friday!!! That would give this week absolutely no breaks. Monday into Tuesday storm, and then Wednesday into Friday storm, both potentially major. Lots coming up, keep checking back here for many updates throughout this whole week of wild weather.
-Scott Pecoriello
