Warm then Cold... how about snowy?

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: Spring tricks are here...
Part 2: Models show snowstorm(s)...
Part 3: Westport Weather...

Part 1:

Well most of you probably already noticed the warm up today from DC to Pittsburgh to NYC to Buffalo and all the way toward caribou... Tomorrow it will only get warmer and by Monday it seems it will be the height of this "spring trick"... By Tuesday it will slowly get cooler and by late week we will be back to around normal or just below...

How warm are we talking about?... Well from DC to Philly we may be dealing with lower 60's... NYC to Boston Mid 50's... Portland to Caribou upper 40's... Central PA, WV, and Virginia upper 40's to lower 60's... The higher you get in elevation the colder it will get and the further south you go the warmer it will get. Pittsburgh to Buffalo 50's and Syracuse to Burlington mid and upper 40's... I would also like to mention that there will be abundant sunshine during this "spring trick". Now enjoy this while you can because i can promise you this will not last too long...

Part 2:

Well i looked at the GFS model and saw a snowstorm coming for next Saturday!!! so this is just a little heads up... It may happen... It may be gone by tomorrow on the models... For now i can tell the models show an almost exact, Identical storm to the last snowstorm... "The Snowicane"... It shows EXACT!!! It shows rain in NYC Wednesday, the rain/snow line sitting over NYC Thursday, and then a blizzard on Friday and Saturday!!!! Now the only thing that is not exact is where the low goes... It seems there will be no loops or anything or crazy stalling but still looks pretty crazy... It also should not be as intense but never the less it seems like a pretty good snowstorm but keep in mind this is one model which is posted below... I still haven't seen the 17th storm on any models but its still in the running for a "finale storm"... What's a "finale storm"???? Well it pretty much means this could be the storm that ends this cold snowy pattern, so let's hope these two storms are it!!!... I will keep you posted on both storms so be sure to check be soon...



Part 3:

Well the only thing to really talk about is how nice it is going to be over the next couple of days, and that will be our main focus for today... Tomorrow it seems temperatures will actually surpass 50 degrees!!!! And by Monday we may find temperatures around 55 degrees, and it will certainly feel like spring... Plus it will be sunny both of these days with no wind so it may feel very close to 60 degrees!!!! By Tuesday it will still be very warm with temperatures around 50 but clouding up... From there the temperatures will slowly but steadily go back down to average or just below and it may begin to rain late Wednesday and by Thursday it seems to be the same cold rain... By Friday we could be dealing with snow and same goes for Saturday!!!! YES... SNOW!!!! So enjoy this warmth while you can because it doesn't seem like it will last for too long, but will be nice... Now as for this potential storm, it may be a big one so we will have to watch! And even another snowstorm potential for around the 17th so watch out! That's it for now! As always i will keep you updated so stay tune!

Westport CT... Saugatuck river...


-Scott Pecoriello

Finally it snows like expected... Springs tricks getting closer... Can't find the 17th snowstorm...

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: Waking up to some snow
Part 2: Spring tricks coming...
Part 3: Can't find the 17th storm
Part 4: Westport Weather...

Part 1:

Radar off Noaa.gov...


Yes across southern CT, Western CT, Rhode Island, Long Island, The Cape, and even parts of NYC you are waking up to some flurries and snow showers so finally the models got some of the snow right. Now it seems where the main land of the U.S. meets where the cape is where the heaviest snow is falling... That would be around Barnstable and eastham where 1-3 locally 4 inches are possible... West babylon, brentwood, deerpark, and Smithtown there is also some steady light snow that may leave a coating to maybe a half an inch because it was last until around the noon time. All across coastal CT we're also seeing some flurries and snow showers which will completely taper off by 10:00 AM but the clouds are likely to stick around for a while. We are finding snow showers all the way to the NJ PA border line but it will be short and only a couple flurries are expected... Philly do not be surprised if you get a couple flakes or sprinkles as well. Across NYC you are in a dry spot right now and that dry air will likely increase so for the most part your snow is over but again i would not be surprised if we saw some flurries around there as well. By the way, this low is actually over several hundred miles off the coast and to the north so this is some very far reaching moisture... Other than some snow showers there may also be a chance for some windy conditions so be careful while you are outside today. All should be set and done by 6 PM this evening across the whole Northeast region and i think you will enjoy what is up next...

Part 2:



Yes, we have been talking about this for quite a few days now and that is this hint of spring that is coming... I will tell you a lot of us south of NYC may get close to 60!!!!! and North of NYC temperatures will be climbing into the 50's and upper 40's which will feel very nice... But this warmth may introduce a new problem... And that is the flooding... Now most places across CT, Providence and Eastern MA have had 90% of there snow already melt so i think you are safe for the most part... However, Southeastern NY, The northern Half of NJ, PA, and even Upstate NY will likely experience some flooding issues this weekend and into the early and mid part of next week. It seems Sunday will be the warmest day across most of the Northeast plus it will be sunny and not much of a breeze... Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be warm too but slowly cooling off and by next weekend it seems the cold will return and the Big Cities will see lower 40's and the possibility for more snow so enjoy the warmth while it lasts...


Part 3:

Accuweather.com


I have a problem... And an annoying one at that... My computer can not go onto the Noaa software and look at the 300 hr. GFS model which i really would love to see because i keep hearing about this 17th storm which i cannot find! By Saturday or Sunday it should start to show up on some of the models that don't show that much of a long range forecast so i will be able to have a better idea of what we are really dealing with... For now i can tell you that this storm seems to have the potential to be another monster snowstorm around the 16th or 17th of march... According to Henry Margusity, he thinks this may be the finale storm... Lets hope so!!!!

Part 4:

Good morning Westport, i hope you are all enjoying the light and occasional snow flurries that are falling around the area this morning... That is tapering off and should be completely gone by around 10:00 AM... By this afternoon it will still be very cloudy and that should last into late tonight before finally clearing out... Now by tomorrow i am sure you will all be much happier because our "spring trick" will begin... Tomorrow temperatures should be rising to the mid and upper 40's and by Sunday we should hit at least 50 with plenty of sunshine!!! Monday it will begin to cool down again but still look for upper 40's last until Wednesday... Here is where the bad news kicks in... It seems late next week and into next weekend we will have to deal with cold air once again and temperatures staying right around 40 degrees... And then we may have to be watching a storm come the 16th and 17th... Right now i cannot say too much about this storm, but it will be one we certainly have to watch for snow!!!! After that we hope it really begins to warm up... and for good!!!! That's it for now... Keep it right here for more updates!!!!...

Westport, CT


-Scott Pecoriello

Interesting weather for your friday, plus most of you will enjoy what I am predicting for next week.... what about after that though?

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: Very interesting friday weather
Part 2: What happened?!?!?
Part 3: Spring and its tricks
Part 4: Finale storm?
Part 5: Westport Weather...

Part 1:

Well what looked very interesting is that they keep extending the snow forecast. What i mean is originally i said tuesday night into wednesday... Then i said thursday... and now it looks like friday!!!! So everything has really gone crazy... Even other forecasting channels were very off... And yes it is all thanks to our lovely models which, as you may have noticed, have not been the most accurate. So it looks like now the models are saying this low is going to continue to move off the coast and northward up toward Nova Scotia and as it does it will rapidly strenghthen and kick back a bulk of moisture toward the tristate area... Now how far north and West this batch of moisture goes remains a bit of a mystery at this time... But, i can say i think Boston, Providence, Hartford, and NYC will see snow from this mixing with rain. I also think coastal ME will see a nice snow from this. The point is the further to the east you go, the more precipitation you will get. It looks like there will be enough cold air for most of this to come down in the way of snow... Yes, Long island the cape and the islands will likely see more snow from this. The models have been so off lately i am scared to say how much snow areas will see from this... It is likely though that the snow will start later today and into tonight and continue into the later hours of tomorrow... I can see most places seeing a coating to 2 inches and more the further west you go. Thats it for now... As always, i will be sure to keep you up to date... be sure to check back soon!!!!

Part 2:

Well this section is pretty much what a lot of you might be wondering about... and thats about how it really didn't snow too much the past couple of days even though it was in the forecast... There is pretty much two reasons why this happened... One is because too much dry air was worked around the storm and two was that the models, as usual this winter, did not really see the dry air and put too much moisture on the map. That's really all that happened and i apologize for the off forecast. Check back soon...

Part 3:

Most of you will really like this!!!! Temperatures will reach mid and upper 50s in DC Baltimore and Philly!!!! NYC to Boston will get lower 50s!!!! And Most areas in the Northeast will see upper 40s and 50s!!!! Lots of sunshine will also accompany this warm air, so it will feel a lot like spring but it sadly won't last... This is one of springs many tricks and it seems late next week it will get cold and again and that will lead to our next storm......

Part 4:

Seems that we could have our finale storm which may really end this cold and snowy pattern once and for all!!! Not very much details on this other than there will likely be a swath of very heavy snow and wind... Where that is remains a mystery at this time... Also there will likely be an area of heavy rain and wind... That area will also remain a mystery for now... Keep checking back because we will likely have more updates on this storm as time goes on...

Part 5:

Good afternoon Westport... Right now it is cloudy with temperatures in the 40's... Again there is the chance for snow starting later today and tonight... It will likely start as a mix or rain but change over to all snow after midnight... Snow showers will continue toward morning and mix back with rain by late morning... By friday night it seems any lingering rain or snow showers will change back to a couple snow showers... By saturday morning the possibility of a coating to 2 inches is possible... As for school delays or closings it is very unlikely we will have any school trouble on friday... This weekend looks to be sunny and warming up and by next week it may reach 50... But i will tell you now that will not last for long... More updates on what will happen after this brief warm up will come later today and into the next week! That's it for now... As always i will be sure to keep you updated!!!...


-Scott Pecoriello

Very sorry.... very quick update... very busy day...

Sorry about today it is not going to be much of an update... The storm encountered a lot of dry air today and i apologize for my off forecast... I did say there was a slight chance we would get nothing though across Westport... For those of you near the cape you picked up 2-4 inches... I still think we will have snow showers tonight in many places including Westport and it will continue into tomorrow... More storms are coming and i will keep you updated... Again, as you can see, i am very rushed today and i do apologize and i should be getting back to 2 posts a day by tomorrow...

The models go snowier...

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: The models go snowier for the big cities!...
Part 2: Spring Update
Part 3: Some weird Earthquake News...
Part 4: Westport Weather...

Part 1:

Yes it looks like everyone has now changed over to the snowier scenario. This includes Accuweather.com, Weather.com, and most of the models. It seems that this small band of heavier snow will run right along the I-95 corridor right Boston... As for the Long island it is likely you you will find lighter amounts... Now when we talk heavy, it really not "heavy" especially with what a lot of you have had lately... Most areas in this "heavier snow zone" will see 1-3, with locally 4 inches of snow... Now you may be saying that this is the same snowfall forecast from yesterday but its really not... The reason it appears the same is because i have to put one or two inches still because there is a small chance the models could switch back but its not very likely. It is more likely you will see more 3 and 4 inches of snow along I-95. The more inland you go the less snow you will see so this storm is really more of a nuisance. Now if we take it down south to the NC and the SC area there will likely be more snow. Actually as you make your way inland and toward the mountains don't be surprised if you see 3, 4, 5, maybe as much as a half a foot of snow. I have heard reports that even Atlanta got a coating to a couple inches... Speaking of Atlanta i believe they are now close to braking the record of one of the snowiest winters. Even reports to the further south and west of Atlanta have some kind of snow. Now i know everyone is sick of hearing snow so let's talk about the spring that's seems like it is never going to come!

Part 2:

Well its a similar story to yesterday and i suggest you check out yesterdays blog for the spring section because it will have more detail. You can already tell that there is more of a spring pattern beginning to form storm wise... The paths of the storm are beginning to slowly change which is a good sign. Also there will be "a spring trick" coming up. Early next week it seems a lot of I-95 will see 50's and inland of there mid and upper 40's. But do not be fooled because it will not last long. Winter will return again.

Part 3:

Well just some quick odd news about the earthquake... It seems that the earthquake was so strong it actually shortened the length of our days... But barely... I believe it altered our days by about 2.7 milliarseconds which i think is still pretty crazy... For more info go to...

http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/nasa-chile-quake-shifted-earths-axis-shortened-day/19378491?icid=main|main|dl1|link4|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aolnews.com%2Fworld%2Farticle%2Fnasa-chile-quake-shifted-earths-axis-shortened-day%2F19378491

Part 4:

A good evening to all in Westport! Kids should be getting a bit more excited but not too much. I changed the percentage for a delay up to 60%... 35% chance of nothing... and 5% chance of no school... Looking at the forecast i think it would be a good idea to have a delay tomorrow since i am officially putting 2-4 inches of snow in the forecast. So i believe we will have some rain and snow beginning after midnight and by 3 or 4 AM it should be all snow but all should be very light... Snow accumulations will be little by morning and will range from nothing to a coating or maybe an inch... By 6 or 7 AM things there may be a period of heavier snow and will last no more than an hour or so, but that's where you'll get most accumulation... By late morning and into the afternoon the snow will become wet and mix with rain... Again light accumulations will take place... Lighter snow showers will take place Wednesday night and into Thursday morning where as of now i say there is a 35% chance of a delay... But that could change so as always stay tuned!!!!


-Scott Pecoriello

Model troubles with wednesday storm... More updates for those in Westport, CT... And is spring in sight?

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: Models get interesting
Part 2: Is spring in sight?
Part 3: Westport Weather...

Part 1:

Well i was looking through some of the model runs and the latest GFS off the Penn state e-Wall site, a great site, was showing 3-5 inches of snow from the eastern sections of NJ and NE sections of NJ through NE PA and North and East of there... It also shows NYC and Hartford in that 3-5 inch range... As for Providence it shows about an inch of precipitation which amounts to 10 inches of snow but rain will likely be a part of it so I'd say 4-6 inches are what the model is showing and for Boston i see 1.25 inches of liquid so that's about a foot or so of snow but again rain will be a pretty large factor so this model shows more like 5-7 inches... Before everyone gets excited know this is one extreme even though models seem to be slowly going to this solution... Another model called the WRF shows a lot of dry air mixing in and no precipitation for a lot of people so we will have to see, but i thought i should let you know that the trend may be changing even though i still stand by my current snowfall totals from last update but that may change so keep it tuned right here for more...

GFS model from Penn state e-Wall... Try to focus on the last box, that is the total precip...


Part 2:

Spring...


One of the biggest questions that have been coming up a lot lately is "How about spring?"... "Where is spring"... "Is it even close?"... Well i have some good news and some bad news about spring... I will start with the good news which is after this Wednesday storm in the Northeast we will find temperatures reaching 50 or close to 50 along the I-95 corridor and north of there a lot of Mid to Upper 40's will show up... So this means spring is coming right... This means this is it right?... WRONG... Sadly this seems to be another one of Springs tricks, but may be a sign that it is on its way... After this Warm up it seems temperatures may get pretty cold again... More Updates on spring coming up through this week and into Next so stay tuned!!!!....

Part 3:

I hope you are having a great evening across Westport!!!! It seems, as i mention in part one, that we may have the storm take that snowier path like we discussed in my last update but it still looks like it is a bit far fetched... But i will tell you what the models are doing... The latest GFS shows about 3-5 inches of snow from this storm and some of the other models are showing 2-4 inches and 1-3 inches so there seems to be a trend starting of models showing more accumulations... This may mean our storm will end up being, well, snowier! I still am sticking with my forecast of a coating to 2 inches because this may be another glitch with the models and by tomorrow it could be showing not much snow... So no immediate changes but something to put in the back of your mind for Tuesday night into Wednesday. If you haven't already i would take a look at Part 2 of this blog because I'm sure you would all be interested to hear about when spring is finally coming, so be sure to check it out!!!! That's it for now, be sure to check back soon, and as always i will be sure to keep you updated on the WILD WEATHER!!!!...

Picture of Westport, CT


-Scott Pecoriello

Quick update on wednesday storm...

Weather Forecast:
Part 1: Wedsesday snowstorm...
Part 2: Westport weather...

Part 1:

So it looks like for you in D.C., Baltimore, Philly, NYC, Hartford, and Boston this is not your storm... Same goes for New england... Now areas just to the North and East of Atlanta may be our target zone where someone could get 6 inches... SC and NC there could be a localized 6 inches but more likely 3-6 or 2-4 away from the coast... Southern Virginia may see 2-4, especially the further south you go, but most of you will see 1-3 inches... As for D.C. and Baltimore look for 1-2 inches with locally 3 inches toward the mountains and the southern side of town... for Philly, NYC and Hartford you will likely see a coating to 2 inches and if we can get the storm to turn slightly north or have a band of heavier moisture extend further north, we could potentially be talking about have up to 3 inches in the Philly, NYC, and hartford area... As for Providence and Boston it seems you will see the same coating to an inch but since you are closer to the coast you have a better chance og seeing up to 3 or 4 inches because the storm will be offshore. So watch for that... There is about a 10% chance now, which isn't a lot, that the storm turns up the coast and we get at least moderate snowfall(3-6 inches) in the big cities... But as of now it looks that will not happen but as always i will keep you updated...

Part 2:

Hello to everyone in Westport! As mentioned above, it seems that the storm that expected to hit wednesday will miss to some extent. My current forecast for snowfall in Westport is at least a coating on the ground, to the possibility of up to 2 inches of snow. There is about a 5% chance this storm completely misses and we end up with just some clouds and maybe a flurry. There is also about a 10% chance the storm comes up the coast and we end up with 3, 4, 5, maybe up to 6 inches of snow. Now at this point neither of those possibilities seem very likely yet i would advise you to keep them in mind... In terms of school closings, the way it looks now is that we may have a delay across the Westport School District... I would say a 50% chance delay... 40% chance of having nothing... and a 10% chance of having no school... The snow should at least taper down if not stop by around noon time wednesday, so i don't think a cancell would really make sense. The storm should start sometime later tomorrow... maybe as early as 6PM or as late as 12AM... Those details are not clear yet, but we should have at least a little accumulation by early wednesday making that morning commute quite slippery... That's why there may be a delay... The snow may mix with rain at times when it starts before quickly changing over to snow... The snow is NOT expected to be heavy... We may find a period of moderate snow, but most will be light... That's it for now... As always i promise to keep you updated...

-Scott Pecoriello