I'll tell you something...My snow map was wrong... Luckily I think this was only the first time this whole winter season that my snow map has been off. I had areas around me getting at least 7 inches of snow, maybe close to a foot, meanwhile they got 2-4, 3-5 inch amounts. I'll tell you something else... I am new to forecasting Ice storms, which is most likely why everything was so off. But, it doesn't take a genius meteorologist to see that this storm will still make history by a long shot... First of all we take a look toward Chicago and the Midwest where 2 feet of snow will fall, with conditions currently classified as a blizzard. Then we head more toward the Ohio area where there is a huge area of ice, sleet and freezing rain falling at times moderately to heavily along with some windy conditions... And we take it to the east and things for the most part are fine. That will all change quickly though, and it will show little signs of coming. The radar right now shows clear conditions miles to our west, but what is going to happen will dramatically alter that situation. In the next couple of hours it will be like magic, although not really, and we will find precipitation fill the whole central PA area in. To the north it will be in the form of snow and sleet, and to the south all freezing rain and ice!!! When it fills in it will become heavy, and quickly move eastward into the big I-95 cities. For somewhere like D.C. you'll see rain for a while, and then in the very middle of the night (say 2-4 AM) you will see freezing rain mix in and it will become heavy before changing to plain heavy rain. If I was in D.C. I would be mainly concerned with the flooding if anything. The current snowfall from the last storm and the heavy rains from this storm combined, have a good chance of resulting in some minor flooding. Yes, overnight the roads in D.C. will become probably bad at times in the freezing rain, but I don't see that to be a major issue at this time. As we head up toward Baltimore we see rain mixing with freezing rain probably more quickly than D.C. you may have a period of just freezing rain in Baltimore that will be moderate, before changing to a heavy rain. The roads will probably become much worse than the roads in D.C. for a time, but I don't see that being classified as a major problem at this time. For both D.C. and Baltimore there are freezing rain warnings in place for a small clip of freezing rain and Ice. Once you head more north up to I-95 corridor things start to become interesting. Philly will see everything start as freezing rain because temperatures will begin as below freezing unlike D.C. and Baltimore. As temperatures drop for a time there is a chance that you will mix with some sleet and some Ice and maybe a couple snowflakes. As the morning comes closer though, rain will likely become mixed in to the mess before everything changes over to entirely rain. Before that happens though, we could see a time of heavy frozen precipitation in the area which is why it too is in a freezing rain warning but to a greater threat than D.C. and Baltimore. Roads will probably be really bad in the morning even though the change over from frozen precipitation to non-frozen precipitation will probably be around 4 or 5 AM, as temperatures begin to rise rather rapidly. After we make it North, and Northwest of Philadelphia, things become more treacherous than anything else. NYC will see a start as mostly freezing rain, but there will be snow, sleet and Ice mixed in. Gradually the snowflakes will leave the mix, and then the sleet, and for a time we could have freezing rain and Ice coming down at a good clip. As we begin to approach the morning hours we will likely see just heavy freezing rain. This will be just down right terrible. We're talking horrible roads through the late overnight hours and into the first half of tomorrow. In and around the city I would expect numerous power outages and downed trees; even some roof collapses. The frozen precipitation should begin to mix with and change over to rain around 7 AM tomorrow, but it's really hard to tell. If we can get that cold air to really dam into the storm and have this second developing low strengthen a bit more, we could be talking frozen precipitation into the mid and late hours of the morning, potentially even early afternoon. Likely? No. Still Possible? Yes. NYC is rightfully under a freezing rain warning. There is going to be some serious problems in the city. If we shift just to the north and west, that is where the worst of everything is most likely. It will start as heavy Ice and freezing rain, and probably end as heavy Ice and freezing rain. Those areas may be actually impassable and shut down for more than 24 or 36 hours. For some we could be talking days before things return back to normal. Even by me in coastal CT, we will see some snow and sleet begin and quickly change over to a heavy duty wintry mix before becoming complete down right heavy freezing rain! The freezing rain will come down until about 9 AM or 10 AM tomorrow morning before changing over, but again, it doesn't take much to see an extended period of time past that 9-10 AM slot of heavy freezing rain. If that were to happen in CT we could see freezing rain into the afternoon hours, and then only get a brief period of rain. Also, from NYC north, you're actually going to get some back lashing out of this. Before all is done probably sometime tomorrow night, we may end the storm as a period of snow. We're not talking serious accumulations, but a good coating to an inch sure. The problem is that absolutely freezing air will rush in, so anyone who does have plain rain tomorrow will probably just have it freeze over and create more problems. Then up toward Boston it all changes. We're going to see heavy snow for a period of time starting very early tomorrow morning and then first changing to a wintry mix later, so snow accumulations may be decent. Just to sum everything up, this storm is not one to mess with... Grab the flashlights, and make sure you have enough stuff in your house to last you more than a day or two because some towns will be shut down by this Ice completely. Stay safe and stay tuned!!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
