Search This Blog

Friday, December 24, 2010

GFS, AccuModel, JMA, NAM now on board for major blizzard... other models... not so much

I just got a new computer, but I can't figure out yet how to do maps on it, so for now I'm just going to list what they show. I haven't figured out how to paste pictures here either, so for now no graphics either. I am going to write exactly what each model portrays, starting with the order that accuweatherpro has it. Enjoy!

AccuModel:

Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Little wind.

Bangor- less than an inch. Snow showers. Some wind.

Portland- 1-2 inches. Snow. Wind.

Boston- 3-5 inches. Moderate snow. Windy

Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy

Hartford- 3-5 inches. Snow. Wind

NYC- 2-4 inches. Snow. Windy at times.

Philadelphia- Less than an inch of snow. Few snow showers and flurries. Little wind.

Washington- Less than an inch or no snow. Flurries, some snow showers possible. Little wind.

COAMPS:

Caribou- Less than 1 inch. flurries and snow showers. Some wind.

Bangor- little or no accumulation. Flurries. wind.

Portland- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind

Boston- little or no accumulation. Flurries. Windy.

Cape cod- 1 inch. Snow showers. Very windy.

Hartford- No Snow. Cloudy. Wind.

NYC- No Snow. Cloudy. Windy

Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.

Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Wind.

NAM:

Caribou- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy.

Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy

Portland- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very windy

Boston- 18-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

Cape cod- 30-36 inches. All out Blizzard. Very Windy

Hartford- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy

Philadelphia- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Windy

Washington- Less than 1 inch. Flurries and Snow Showers. Some Wind.

CMC (Canadian):

Caribou- less than an inch. Flurries and snow showers. Little wind.

Bangor- less than an inch. Flurries. Some wind.

Portland- No snow. Cloudy. Wind

Boston- less than an inch. Flurries. WInd

Cape cod- Less than an inch. Flurries, and snow showers. Windy

Hartford- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.

NYC- Less than an inch. Flurries. Wind.

Philadelphia- No snow. Cloudy. Wind

Washington- No snow. Cloudy. Windy.

ECMWF:

Caribou- No snow

Bangor- No Snow

Portland- No Snow

Boston- 1-2 inches. Snow showers. Windy

Cape cod- 5-8 inches. Heavy snow at times. Very windy

Hartford- Little or no accumulation. Flurries. Wind.

NYC- No snow

Philadelphia- No snow

Washington- No snow

GFS:

Caribou- less than an inch. Few snow showers. Wind.

Bangor- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Portland- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Boston- 16-20 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

NYC- 12-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Washington- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

JMA:

Caribou- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Bangor- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Portland- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Boston- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 14-18 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 12-16 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

NYC- 8-12 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 6-8 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Washington- 3-5 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.

Now the models are crazy. All over the place. One shows 3 feet, the next shows no snow... So i tried my best to make up my own forecast. A consensus forecast. Enjoy!

My forecast:

Caribou- 1-3 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.

Bangor- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Portland- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Boston- 7-11 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Cape cod- 10-14 inches. Blizzard. Very Windy.

Hartford- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

NYC- 4-6 inches. Heavy Snow. Very Windy.

Philadelphia- 2-4 inches. Moderate Snow. Windy.

Washington- 1-2 inches. Snow Showers. Windy.

I'm interested to see which model comes the closest to being correct and how my forecast does. The models were so "everything" that really my forecast is all the models snow totals averaged together, to find my totals, so my forecast could easily be off by a lot, but it may be the most accurate. I DONT KNOW! I'm just so confused. And It's weird how off they are from each other when the storm is 2-3 days away. I'm not sure whether to say get excited or wait for another one. Looking at the long ranger, it seems we're going to have a warm up period around New Years, and then back to cold, but dry. Not many storms are in the near future other than this one, and the warm aired one which looks to be rain. I hope you all have a happy and safe christmas! Get ready for whatever is coming...

-Scott Pecoriello