Well as of last night, NYC was expected to see flurries and snow showers sunday and some accumulating snow sunday night, and then snow ending on monday with 1-3 inches of snow in NYC according to Weather.com... However overnight almost all models shifted to what I would call a worse case scenario. The storm will track far west bringing a likely full on blizzard to the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston, likely to affect millions and millions of people. The potential is there for those I-95 cities to see a foot or more of snow by time is all done. Now it is the timing that is frustrating. I have a flight out of NYC at 7 AM tomorrow morning. As of now flurries and snow showers will be around most of today, and then stop before a steady snow starts during the very early morning hours of tomorrow. The question is what time will the conditions really get bad enough for flight cancellations. My hope is that they don't start canceling tonight. It is likely though, that at some point the I-95 cities will nearly be shut down as wicked strong winds hit along with the snow creating basically an all out blizzard. Now where is the hotspot for snow? Well my guess right now is Providence RI, where it is possible that 12-18, maybe more, inches of snow crush the area with winds gusting past 40 mph. The storm seems to be tracking close enough for a mix of rain and snow to hit the cape and islands, bringing down some of the accumulations. Now the total will also depend on how much the storm bombs out at the end. If it bombs out to an extreme, which is a possibility, you can expect each snowfall forecast to be raised about 5-8 inches from what it was. If it goes by fast enough, not really expected, the totals can be lowered a good 1-3 or 2-4 inches. So here are the current snowfall totals as of now... ENJOY!
Caribou- At this point it is very hard to make a prediction on caribou based on what the storm does up north. A good guess may be a good 4-6 inches, potentially a little more or less. Very windy at times. Heavy snow is possible along with the winds, making blizzard conditions possible.
Bangor- Again, it is very hard at this point to predict past the I-95 corridor, but my best guess is 6-10 inches of snow along with extremely gusty winds, making it a good chance for blizzard conditions. Travel will be a major problem.
Portland-Still hard to forecast, I believe a good 7-11 inches of snow is in order for the area. The winds will be very gusty at times, making it almost likely for blizzard conditions to take place. The area will be impossible to get through at a time as the storm begins to bomb out over the atlantic.
Boston- More clear now, boston has a good chance at seeing 8-12 inches of snow. It is possible that Boston does get more than that, but the system may track close enough to cause a mix of rain and snow at times, lowering accumulations from being more than a foot. Still very strong winds are possible, making blizzard conditions likely. The city may be ultimately shut down for a time as a full on blizzard comes through.
Cape Cod- It seems the system will track close enough to bring a good amount of mixing into the precipitation. This will certainly lower accumulations, but still heavy snow will fall at times as the storm moves by on the back side. A good 3-5 inches is still likely to fall along with very strong winds, creating periods of blizzard conditions, especially on the back side of the storm.
Providence- As of now, it seems providence will be the bulls eye of this storm. Current accumulation forecast could be anywhere from 1-2 feet of snow! Again more or less is possible. The storm may not bomb out as much, or maybe bomb out more, but this is likely to be a target location. Winds will be very strong throughout, causing the area to likely just shut down, with a full on blizzard coming through the area. Travel will be almost impossible.
Hartford- Hartford will be a hard hit location with 8-12 inches possible. The potential is there for up to 14 inches of snow to fall. The winds will be gusting very strong creating whiteout, and blizzard conditions likely. The area is likely to be impassable during the worst of the storm, with the potential for the area to also be basically shut down at times.
NYC- Being a major travel area for leaving and coming, NYC will have major problems. At this point it seems 8-12 inches of snow is in order for the area, with potentially up to 14 inches of snow, if all goes right. Winds will batter the area. At some point the airport is likely to shut down. When that is remains a mystery for now. The heavy snow and strong winds will likely create an all out blizzard affecting millions in the area. The city will become impassable at times, and travel will have major difficulties.
Philadelphia- Philly has a good chance at seeing a good 6-10 inches of snow. The wind will just make everything worse, causing the city to potentially shut down at some point as all out blizzard conditions come through the area.
Washington- 3-5 inches of snow is likely in store for the capital city as the storm moves through. Winds will also be strong at times causing border line blizzard conditions. The city will become a hazard to travel to and from at times, and also if you are passing through the area.
I believe this forecast is going to do well in terms of accuracy. I think generally at some point or another, the tristate area will basically shut down as a result of the blizzard. Just be ready for in and around a foot of snow for the area, with winds gusting upwards of 40 mph, creating whiteouts, and blizzard conditions. As for today, the northern branch of the system will create a really beautiful christmas day, as you can expect perfect flurries on snow showers. Just enough to make a real christmas feeling. Enjoy your day! And get excited for a blizzard!
-Scott Pecoriello
