Danielle:
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : Less than 2%
Danielle's path is now almost certain with the storm passing somewhere between 180 and 200 miles to the east of Bermuda... Bermuda should only experience a few affects from the storm considering the wind span is only about 175 miles, and a rain span of about 190-200 miles in some of the outer bands... Bermuda should expect to see 35-45 mph winds, with showers of light to moderate rain... also Bermuda should expect wave heights to be between 12-15 feet, with the highest wave heights to 18 feet just a few miles off the coast... Danielle now a category 4 with winds 135 mph and gust close to 170, it should weaken slightly as it makes its closest pass to Bermuda sometime very late tomorrow and early Sunday... Once passing, then expect the slight weakening to start taking place with winds coming down to 125 mph... by Tuesday expect winds to be down to around 115 or 110 as a category 3 status, and by Wednesday faster weakening as Danielle experiences strong shear and colder waters which will bring the storm down to either a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm before completely falling apart by early next weekend... Just something interesting that i found out today is that they're actually doing a titanic expedition in the north Atlantic, where they're planning to use underwater robots to discover new areas never seen before in the titanic... coincidentally, hurricane Danielle is expected to pass almost directly over that area as a potentially category 1 hurricane at the least, with that boat experiencing waves 25+ feet if it doesn't get out of that area which may not be until tomorrow, but tomorrow looks like it will be just in time before it gets bad... even leaving tomorrow though will cause wave between 6 and 10 feet, which is rough...
Earl
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 45%
Well Earl is currently have some trouble strengthening, battling some really dry air right now, mixed in with some shear... None the less, all of these problems will rather quickly disappear in the next 24-36 hours, which is when Earl will have a chance to begin strengthening... It will head in a W direction over the next 2-4 days and should become a hurricane in the next 48-60 hours... Once that happens, and only when it becomes a hurricane, the storm will then begin turning WNW and eventually NW... Now the three key players are a frontal boundary, high pressure, and storm strength... If the frontal boundary and the storm miss a connection and high pressure is over the central Atlantic extending close to Bermuda, and the storm isn't giant yet, the storm has a really good shot at making potentially a direct hit at the U.S. If maybe the storm intensifies too quickly, the frontal boundary and the storm make a strong connection, and the high pressure is over the middle and eastern Atlantic and over the east coast, the storm has a good shot at curving to the NW then NNW then N and finally almost all the way east, slamming into Bermuda... So it's basically a lose, lose, as of now... The best thing would be if it took an in between and went directly in the middle of the U.S. and Bermuda, which currently, isn't a very favored solution...
Soon to be Fiona
Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 70%
Well a very strong wave has now been over the warm eastern Atlantic waters for 3 or 4 days now, and is still looking rather healthy on satellite images... Last blog i made a prediction that the storm would be named or at least called T.D. 8 by tomorrow or Sunday, and i still stick with that... Right now it is fighting a little bit of dry air and shear, but for the most part it is in a good position for developing... Once called T.D. 8 or Fiona, it will work on a short WSW track before turning just to the west... It could indeed become a hurricane by mid week and potentially, if everything remains as is, a major hurricane by late week... A lot of uncertainty with this one because it is so far in the future... My best guess for now is that this storm will track closest to the coast out of three storms... A lot of the models though, are having trouble showing the storm... The national hurricane center gives this storm a 70% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours which sounds right... This is really going to be the one that we're going to need to watch for the next 2 weeks, because there are a lot of places it could end up...
Gaston?:
Chances of affecting the U.S. : 50%
This one is really far in the future... Right now it is just on the edge of Africa and the far east Atlantic, south of the islands... As of now, its just a wave... Nothing really special to it, other than the knowledge that waves developed... So could this be Gaston? Well over the next week I give it about a 50% chance of developing, and since its so far in the future, I can't say at all where its going other than it may take a very similar path to Fiona...
Keep it here... A lot going on!!!
-Scott Pecoriello
