Believe it or not, this winter is already off to an historic start. There has never been a recorded winter where New York City has not seen accumulating snow in November, December, and January. It is January 13th, so we have roughly two weeks left of January. Will New York City set a record? It's possible, but not likely. Taking a glance at all the models over the past several days, there is support for at least one or two smaller systems to affect the New York City before the month of January goes out. Now whether this is an inch of snow or 5 inches of snow, will remain a mystery for a long time, but I'll keep an eye on the dates between 18th and the 22nd. That's when I see the possibility of a clipper system, they may end up even being a miller B. But again, this is mostly speculation at this point.
Here's what the clipper system looks like on the 18z GEFS ensembles
So what does the rest of the winter season hold? Well the easiest way to answer that is... It remains a mystery! But of course, I won't leave you guys hanging there! I am not throwing in the towel on this winter, nor do I plan to. Yes, so far this winter has not gone the way I had planned, and not the way most planned, but that does not mean we are all screwed for the rest of the season. We have more than 60 days left of this winter season, and we have been stuck in this crappy pattern for months now. Although it has altered slightly at times, it remains the same overall pattern. Horrid. The NAO has remained steadily positive, for the most part, for months now. This is almost unheard of. So just historically speaking, you can see a pattern change to colder and snowier weather is already in support.
Just a glance over our current teleconnections helping to drive our pattern.
Interesting. The NAO is actually negative! Something we haven't seen in a while, and might help to explain why it is going to be so cold this weekend. But look where it goes next. Another bump positive. Something we have seen since October and November. That helps explain the warmth coming during the second half of next week. And finally, long range says back towards negative... but when hasn't it showed that?
AO still looks good. Its going neutral or negative, and will support cold air. I have a feeling we see this change though give such consistent model guidance. Warm, warm, warm... and Warm! So, we'll have to watch this. Although, really the models usually catch onto the teleconnections, rather than the other way around, so we might want to watch what happens here with our AO.
And finally our PNA. Negative, and expected to stay that way. This will help drive the waves of warm into the east, and help to prevent sustained cold air. It is a battle between the teleconnections, which right now, don't seem to really agree.
But enough with this talk of a pattern change! I'm sure you're all done with it, as well as I. The change to colder and snowier weather will probably not be a dramatic one, rather it is a slow change. Once again though, I am done with pinpointing dates and times, and how's and whats... It's just not that simple. Now lets take a look what the expect for the next month!
Here's my extended winter weather outlook... Enjoy!
January 14th - 16th =
Lake effect snow slows down and very cold continues to take over the entire region. High pressure moves in as temperatures slowly moderate, but remain quiet.
January 16th - 18th =
A storm moves in from the west and spreads light to moderate rain showers along I-95 and the suburbs. Temperatures are above average as the storm moves in. Areas to the north of I-90 can expect some wintry precipitation, while areas to the south remain mostly rain, but may begin or end as wintry weather. The low pressure moves north, and temperatures plummet once again.
January 18th - 25th =
Very cold air takes over the Northeast region, as the area dries out once again. A potentially weak clipper system moves into the area north of I-80. Scattered snow showers and flurries take over, and may briefly turn moderate the further east you go. Temperatures moderate once again though after the clipper system moves by, and the region is back to well above normal temperatures. A wetter and warmer pattern takes over.
* VERY LONG RANGE.. TAKE LIGHTLY! *
January 25th - 31st =
The warm and wet pattern continues for the region, with a better chance of wintry precipitation for the interior Northeast. Unlikely though. Watch the 29th-31st though. I do believe we have potential to see a good storm here. Whether it is rain or snow remains unclear, but I think we'll see in the coming days and weeks that timeframe is one to watch. Could be a snowstorm, as the pattern turns colder finally by the end of the month.
February 1st - 7th =
February may actually start off very wintry. The pattern (although I promised not to mention it) may actually truly break down here. Widespread cold across the entire county, as temperatures are well below normal. A line of storms looks to begin as well. Coastal storm after coastal storm moves up the east coast, potentially putting down widespread snowfall. The first one looks to come midweek.
February 7th - 14th =
Another coastal system may move up the EC during the beginning of the week. Temperatures are well below normal, as yet more system try and develop off the coast. More widespread snow is possible. The pattern continues into the third week, as cold and snow may be the theme finally.
So that's my current outlook. Folks, I have faith in February. Euro weeklies have already come out with a very cold and snowy pattern starting February 1st and lasting right through the 14th. Who know what happens after that. Again, historically this is supported as well.
Do not give up on the winter. For many, it has yet to begin, but it will... I have a strong belief that the folks throwing in the towel are going to be sorry they did. Remember, it only takes a period of less than one month to get snowfall above average, and winter to start up. One big daddy does it as well. No one can say for sure what will happen over the second half of winter, so stay tuned as we track it together. Have a good night!
-Scott P
Wild about Weather
