Nor'easter breakdown

Good evening folks! Around 5:00 PM here in southern California with a thick fog rolling into the area. I've been blessed by the weather gods over the past few days, as the area has seen nothing but sunshine and warm temperatures. Good news is I get to wrap up my Spring break here tomorrow, and then I'm heading back to southwestern Connecticut just in time for the big nor'easter... The question is though, will I be able to land? Not sure how easy landing at JFK will be on Sunday afternoon, but we shall see! Enough about myself though, let's talk about this "monster"! I've been monitoring this thing for just about a week now, and my overall views on the storm haven't changed too much despite the usual model mayhem. I try to tell people, do not ride the model train... It's not a fun ride! We have seen everything from models just 24 hours ago show no storm, to models who have stayed consistent for the past week. If I had the power, I would come up with a super model that would nail this thing off the bat... But that wouldn't be as much fun, would it? Luckily things turned for the better late last night, as we saw the GFS and NAM join the solutions that the other models were seeing. So let's break down the latest from the models. 12z European model:

12z GFS model:

12z NAM model:

12z NOGAPS model:

12z Canadian model:

12z JMA model:

12z SREF model:

As you can see above, I have selected 7 different models to show you. The European model (top) is rather interesting as it has shown a massive storm for more than 3 days now, and then this afternoon it backed off of that idea. Now rather than showing a sub 990 mb low pressure system with a tight wind gradient, we see more of a loose and weaker storm. No doubt its still big and nasty, just not nearly as strong as it was once shown. This is one of several reasons why this particular run should be taken lightly. We watch for consistency, and once we see that consistency broken, we need to wait for more runs to come in so that the model can regain consistency. Same can be said generally about the GFS. We watched it show no storm for a very long time, and then late last night it jumped right in with a powerhouse nor'easter... only to loose it this afternoon. While there is still clearly a well defined nor'easter, it is no longer the strength it used to be. Exactly why I remain cautious about drawing the conclusion that we are going to have a weaker system. The GFS also has been trying to fiddle with a double barrel low pressure system; something that other models have not shown. To me that means that not only is there a struggle for consistency, but with agreement as well. This also applies to the other American model, the NAM, which earlier had a sub 980 mb low pressure system, and has now clearly backed off. So there are some REALLY interesting an important notes that we can take away from just those three models. We are seeing a jump away from this "monster storm" all of a sudden, which is why I caution people to say this will be the final solution. We are still more than 60 hours away from the storm, and as I have said, models like to fiddle around. But then again... Isn't it interesting to see they all jumped to weaker solutions? Another note to take into account. The good news for now is, we are seeing FAIR model agreement. Like I have said though, nothing is set in stone, and the 00z runs tonight will be crucial in determining a more definite track for the system. So what's the biggest concerns with the system, and for who? No better place to start than with the rain!

Here's the 12z NAM, which is one of the more widespread with the rainfall. A large area of 2-3 inch rainfall amounts, with bands and strips of 3-5 inches of rain. That spells out flooding right there, especially because a lot of this will come down very quickly.

The similarities between the NAM rainfall and the CMC rainfall are remarkable, as they essentially put down the same amount of rain in the same areas. True model agreement, which is why I prefer these models right now for the moisture. In the end though, it will all have to do with the storm positioning.

In a typical nor'easter, the heaviest rains and winds will be to the north and east of the storms center, so it will all depend on where the exact track of the storm system is. It is clearing visible from the NAM and CMC above that the track is to the west of where you see 2 and 3+ inch rain amounts. Above is the April 2007 Nor'easter, which may in fact be a decent analog for this storm system. Winds are another matter, and while they don't look to be the biggest concern with this nor'easter, they remain a threat. Along the immediate coast from NJ to ME, winds should be sustained at 25-40 mph, with gusts possibly up around 50 or 55 mph. That is if the models continue to show what they show currently. If they begin showing a tighter gradient, those numbers may be bumped up 5 to 10 mph, but if they continue showing a weakening trend, we do the opposite.

I'll leave you all with this. I don't exactly buy into this whole, 6+ inch widespread snowfall amounts. But elevation snow of 4-6+ inches is not out of the question, as it has happened before... and if everything goes right, I don't see why it cannot happen again. If you are in a valley or lower elevation of western PA or NY, I think a change over to wet snow is possible. However, it will only amount to a few inches. That is significant though! Something that I believe people have to begin realizing. A few inches of snow with trees covered in full bloom could lead to disastrous conditions. This may be the most dangerous aspect of this storm system, so I will continue to monitor it and fill you all in with detail.

I've decided an updated map before the 00z runs wouldn't be smart, so here is the one I created this morning. Obviously there have been some changes, but I do not want to do anything just yet since there will be more to come... so for now, enjoy! General thoughts remain the same, so do not think you are being mislead. Keep following me on Facebook and remember to follow me on my twitter as well which can be found on my Facebook page! Should be a very interesting next 48 hours, so stay with Wild about Weather for all the latest! -Scott Pecoriello