Late night snow map for current storm

-Scott Pecoriello

First of many storms!

Just a real quick update... We have a nice storm under way for the whole tristate area. I believe everyone in the area will pick up a minimum of 3 inches of snow, which is why the whole area is in a winter weather advisory. I would not be surprised if certain areas were upped to a winter storm warning. Reason being, someone will likely pick up 8 inches before all is done. The bulls eyed area, as of right now, is northern NJ into southern CT. I think a general 4-7 inches of snow is a good bet, with again, someone picking up 8 inches of snow. Snow will begin from west to east from 10-12 PM.


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Winter is back

I am aware that I have not updated in a couple weeks now, and that is for a couple reasons. One being that I had called for the first week of February to be the worst of winter. That did not work out as the first storm turned out to be rain, and the second one was a complete miss. The models were an absolute mess for that week, so were the public and national weather services, and so was I!!!! Anyways that is all done now, but the effects of that storm missing are still in place. Temperatures in the major I-95 citites currently have temperates anywhere from 50 degrees to 70 degrees in mid to late February. We like to call this a thaw. Typically winter has two halfs to it, more or less. One takes place december into early January, and the other takes place early to mid February, and into early March, with a thaw in between (Keep in mind this is just relevant for the Northeast) This year our pattern has been much different however. We've had the first half of winter start in late december and go up until a couple weeks ago in late January. Now we are in a thaw. Given the usual winter, that means we are soon in for the second half of winter. Already plenty of signs of that coming. More details on what is to come soon!

-Scott Pecoriello


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Busiest week of Winter coming up?!

I have a strong belief that starting on Monday the 7th of February, we will have the craziest week of Winter, which should last into Friday the 11th of February. I'm sure you're wondering what could possibly be going on that would make this coming week the wildest week of Winter this season, based on the wildness we've already had, and the answer to that is not simple. We'll start the week with an Arctic front moving through late Monday into Tuesday. This will do two things, both major. One it will bring very cold air with it, setting the stage for whatever comes later in the week to likely be in the form of snow, and two, it will bring a storm of it's own with it. About 2 or 3 days ago, models were really showing this storm being a non event. Maybe a couple of flurries, and at best a snow shower with some wind. However, yesterday the models began to turn this into a bigger system, potentially dropping 6 or more inches of snow with a good wind coming with and behind it causing potential blizzard conditions. And today, of course, the models have basically discarded it like before, and show snow showers coming through Monday night into Tuesday with some windy conditions. I'm not buying it... I think at a minimum the Tristate area gets some snow and sleet or freezing rain to begin, quickly changing over to a light to moderate snow lasting all the way into Tuesday afternoon. For now, I would say the Tristate area as a whole sees a general 2-4 inches with locally more by later Tuesday. I am trying to express though, that this is at a minimum. I have a feeling that the models will likely show this storm again, and even if they don't, it could still happen that we see a general 6-12 inches of snow with locally more, along with strong winds and blizzard conditions. So definitely something to watch for. So the week already begins wild, and what's next? Well, earlier I mentioned this would also bring cold air to set the stage for a late week storm, and thats exactly what may happen. Loads of moisture seems to develop in the gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Meanwhile cold air remains in the east from the arctic front. What happens when loads of moisture meets up with cold air, and a strengthening low? I think that means... Major Blizzard? Yes, there is the potential that come late week, we see a major blizzard come together for us. This is still 4 or 5 days out, so the possibilities are endless. We could see a storm that tracks to the west giving us a major rain and wind storm, with a little bit of snow on the back side (unlikely scenario). We could see a storm that tracks to far east and goes out to see giving us a complete miss (More likely). And yes, we could see a storm that tracks perfectly in the middle giving us a monster blizzard that would likely change the pattern we are currently in. And of course, theres a whole lot of in between tracks this storm could take. This storm could be Wednesday night into Friday!!! That would give this week absolutely no breaks. Monday into Tuesday storm, and then Wednesday into Friday storm, both potentially major. Lots coming up, keep checking back here for many updates throughout this whole week of wild weather.

-Scott Pecoriello

Right to the next storm, but first a short recap!

This morning many people across the tristate area woke up to something that hasn't been seen in years... A good accumulation of Ice!!!! Across the area there were reports ranging from 0.25 inches (areas further to the south) all the way to more than 1 inch of accumulated ice across areas into northern NJ and CT. The NWS did an absolutely atrocious job with the storm. For Southwestern CT, we first saw a winter storm watch, then a winter storm warning, then a freezing rain warning, and then an Ice storm warning. I can't be too tough on them though, because my forecast basically matched theirs during the winter storm warnings... Anyways areas were covered in a really good thin but strong layer of ice this morning making travel impossible for some. The freezing rain had a lot of trouble changing over to anything non frozen due to how fast the storm moved, not allowing enough time for temperatures to warm up while anything was falling. There were a wide range of reports from this storm. I've heard anything from a couple fallen branches, to full trees crushing houses. Power outages were very widespread in areas, but tonight most of them have been restored. Something surprised me though in the last couple of hours though... The NWS actually put up winter weather advisories for areas from hartford on eastward for the remnants of whatever was left out in the west this morning. They think generally 1-3 inches could be picked up from whatever moves through, but that seems on the high side. I would just say some areas could pick up a quick coating of snow, with localized 1 inch amounts towards the extreme east coast. This will certainly be a storm to remember as areas even such as NYC picked up over a half inch of Ice! Central park recorded right around 0.60 inches of ice, sleet, and freezing rain...

Yes there is another storm. No, this will not compare at all to any of the systems we've seen so far this winter. My current forecast calls for mostly rain with some mixing toward the end of the storm from D.C. to Baltimore, while Philly will probably see rain going to a wintry mix and ending as a period of snow. DC and Baltimore should pick up only an inch or two of snow, but the further west you go, I could see more 3, 4, and 5 inch amounts, especially toward the apps. In Philly I see a general 2-4 inches of snow, with locally 5 inches, especially as you work your way west of the city. In fact if you go far enough west I believe you could see more 6 and 7 inch amounts. Once you head up toward the NYC area I believe there will be sprinkles quickly changing to sleet and snow, before going to all snow during most of saturday. I think a general 4-6 inches is in order for the area, but if you go to the north and west of the city that's where the jackpot will be for this storm. I think someone in there will pick up 6-10 inches of snow, but it should not be widespread. Even in and around the city I would not be surprised if there were localized 7 and 8 inch amounts. Then when you had up to the NYC to Boston corridor along the I-95 I believe it will be mostly snow, maybe a few sleet pellets to begin with the snow. Those areas will see probably a good 5-8 inches of snow with again maybe someone picking up 10 inches or so. Boston is also included in the 5-8 inch zone with locally 10 inches. Keep checking back as it seems we have another storm coming on into the middle of next week!

-Scott Pecoriello

Becoming harder to change over...

Areas along the I-95 corridor have already had their change over from freezing rain, ice and sleet, to all rain. In NYC, and Boston however, things are still coming down frozen. Within the next half hour to an hour NYC will have all their precipitation change over to rain, so conditions will begin to improve, but it looks like just north of there things may become historic. NYC into coastal CT, and back north and west into parts of NJ has an Ice storm warning now in effect, which has not happened in years. This is a major problem. An Ice storm warning basically calls for a 1/2 inch of more of Ice. So just to recap, north of the city into coastal CT and NJ will have the worst of the ice. We're talking widespread power outages, impassable roads, and ice accumulation of more than 1/2 inch, maybe even close to an inch of ice. Some future casts suggest by noon this storm is actually completely gone, which if that was the case we may not really have a turn over in coastal CT and northern NJ. If, however, it lasts longer, by 9 AM- 10 AM we will probably see a change over to rain, but not heavy. The heaviest precip will come down as ice.

-Scott Pecoriello

Things go way down hill from here...

I'll tell you something...My snow map was wrong... Luckily I think this was only the first time this whole winter season that my snow map has been off. I had areas around me getting at least 7 inches of snow, maybe close to a foot, meanwhile they got 2-4, 3-5 inch amounts. I'll tell you something else... I am new to forecasting Ice storms, which is most likely why everything was so off. But, it doesn't take a genius meteorologist to see that this storm will still make history by a long shot... First of all we take a look toward Chicago and the Midwest where 2 feet of snow will fall, with conditions currently classified as a blizzard. Then we head more toward the Ohio area where there is a huge area of ice, sleet and freezing rain falling at times moderately to heavily along with some windy conditions... And we take it to the east and things for the most part are fine. That will all change quickly though, and it will show little signs of coming. The radar right now shows clear conditions miles to our west, but what is going to happen will dramatically alter that situation. In the next couple of hours it will be like magic, although not really, and we will find precipitation fill the whole central PA area in. To the north it will be in the form of snow and sleet, and to the south all freezing rain and ice!!! When it fills in it will become heavy, and quickly move eastward into the big I-95 cities. For somewhere like D.C. you'll see rain for a while, and then in the very middle of the night (say 2-4 AM) you will see freezing rain mix in and it will become heavy before changing to plain heavy rain. If I was in D.C. I would be mainly concerned with the flooding if anything. The current snowfall from the last storm and the heavy rains from this storm combined, have a good chance of resulting in some minor flooding. Yes, overnight the roads in D.C. will become probably bad at times in the freezing rain, but I don't see that to be a major issue at this time. As we head up toward Baltimore we see rain mixing with freezing rain probably more quickly than D.C. you may have a period of just freezing rain in Baltimore that will be moderate, before changing to a heavy rain. The roads will probably become much worse than the roads in D.C. for a time, but I don't see that being classified as a major problem at this time. For both D.C. and Baltimore there are freezing rain warnings in place for a small clip of freezing rain and Ice. Once you head more north up to I-95 corridor things start to become interesting. Philly will see everything start as freezing rain because temperatures will begin as below freezing unlike D.C. and Baltimore. As temperatures drop for a time there is a chance that you will mix with some sleet and some Ice and maybe a couple snowflakes. As the morning comes closer though, rain will likely become mixed in to the mess before everything changes over to entirely rain. Before that happens though, we could see a time of heavy frozen precipitation in the area which is why it too is in a freezing rain warning but to a greater threat than D.C. and Baltimore. Roads will probably be really bad in the morning even though the change over from frozen precipitation to non-frozen precipitation will probably be around 4 or 5 AM, as temperatures begin to rise rather rapidly. After we make it North, and Northwest of Philadelphia, things become more treacherous than anything else. NYC will see a start as mostly freezing rain, but there will be snow, sleet and Ice mixed in. Gradually the snowflakes will leave the mix, and then the sleet, and for a time we could have freezing rain and Ice coming down at a good clip. As we begin to approach the morning hours we will likely see just heavy freezing rain. This will be just down right terrible. We're talking horrible roads through the late overnight hours and into the first half of tomorrow. In and around the city I would expect numerous power outages and downed trees; even some roof collapses. The frozen precipitation should begin to mix with and change over to rain around 7 AM tomorrow, but it's really hard to tell. If we can get that cold air to really dam into the storm and have this second developing low strengthen a bit more, we could be talking frozen precipitation into the mid and late hours of the morning, potentially even early afternoon. Likely? No. Still Possible? Yes. NYC is rightfully under a freezing rain warning. There is going to be some serious problems in the city. If we shift just to the north and west, that is where the worst of everything is most likely. It will start as heavy Ice and freezing rain, and probably end as heavy Ice and freezing rain. Those areas may be actually impassable and shut down for more than 24 or 36 hours. For some we could be talking days before things return back to normal. Even by me in coastal CT, we will see some snow and sleet begin and quickly change over to a heavy duty wintry mix before becoming complete down right heavy freezing rain! The freezing rain will come down until about 9 AM or 10 AM tomorrow morning before changing over, but again, it doesn't take much to see an extended period of time past that 9-10 AM slot of heavy freezing rain. If that were to happen in CT we could see freezing rain into the afternoon hours, and then only get a brief period of rain. Also, from NYC north, you're actually going to get some back lashing out of this. Before all is done probably sometime tomorrow night, we may end the storm as a period of snow. We're not talking serious accumulations, but a good coating to an inch sure. The problem is that absolutely freezing air will rush in, so anyone who does have plain rain tomorrow will probably just have it freeze over and create more problems. Then up toward Boston it all changes. We're going to see heavy snow for a period of time starting very early tomorrow morning and then first changing to a wintry mix later, so snow accumulations may be decent. Just to sum everything up, this storm is not one to mess with... Grab the flashlights, and make sure you have enough stuff in your house to last you more than a day or two because some towns will be shut down by this Ice completely. Stay safe and stay tuned!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello