Do not be fooled...

Let me tell you, that west of NYC, Philly, and DC, have had a crazy rain day today... The absolute worst for them i believe is over, although it will get bad again, if it hasn't already... The real area I'm concerned for is these major cities and to the east, where many be people may be starting to let their guards down... Well dont... Because nothing really "bad" has happened yet... not even really close to that... This morning we picked up more than an inch of rain in a matter of no more than an our here in southwestern CT... I literally thought to myself, if this continues, we'll all be underwater by noon... Crazyily enough, it stopped and it was bright and breezy for most of the day, which was something I had never considered, and something that certainly had never been forecasted... What I later found out was that storm part #1 had just clipped us, and storm part #2 will be the worst and come tonight, and then storm part #3... nicole... Will hit sometime Friday... So do not let your guards down because a bad, bad storm is on the way... Strongest winds are just beginning around my area where it went for 72 customers without out power to 533 costumers in a matter of hours with peak gusts at most 40 mph... This is why I fear for the next couple of hours into the early morning where winds will likely gust to close to 60 mph, and stay sustained close to 40 mph... Not just that but the rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour will kick in with that, and at times it will look like an all out tropical storm along the coast, and potentially a minumal hurricane... So bad stuff coming along, and the worst will probably start around or just before midnight... Thats at least when the rain will begin to kick in... Now times are moving back and quickly... Yesterday's forecast called for an AM sprinkle for tomorrow and clearing in the afternoon, while tomorrows forecast now calls for heavy rain and wind, with 1-2+ additional inches expected across many areas... So keep it here... Lots of stormy weather coming your way...

-Scott Pecoriello

Its Big, Its Bad, and there is no stoping it...

I really wish I had more time, but I can promise you that tomorrow I will be posting numerous times... We have a big one on the way... From T.D. 16, to Nicole, to now technically T.D. Nicole, but really a second low is forming, and will be the big problem... The way everything is going to develope and that is important, but more important is for you to know what is going to happen... 18... Yes... 18 inches of rain has already been reported around Wilmington of the past couple of days... we could get more than half of that closer to home here... I need to bring back this scary date, because its important to get this point across correctly... March 13th, 2010... School up here was out for a week, rains made the ground moist, with the winds gusting to 70 mph trees were down everywhere, and power was out for some up to 2 weeks... No over exaggeration when i say this storm may be similar to that... maybe worse for some... Since my time is running short, I'm going to wrap this up quickly... This is a very scary, very dangerous, and very real storm... It will do damage... Gusts up here are expected to reach 60 mph potentially, with 4-6 inches potentially 8 inches of rain, and into central PA, maybe 12 inches of rain possible... Crazy, Crazy, Crazy... Expect damage, and evacuations, and lots of lots of flooding... Thunderstorms of severe magnitude are also possible...

-scott pecoriello

Nicole is forming and currently is T.D. 16... East coast watch out...

As I type intense thunderstorms are rapping quickly around T.D. 16, soon to be tropical storm Nicole by tomorrow morning... The storm will pass over cuba before reaching a small body of water between Cuba and Florida where the storm will have its final chance to really attempt at intensifying... As of now most expect top winds to reach only 45 or 50 mph, really pretty minimum tropical storm strength... Seeing though, that the storm will then enter the atlantic ocean again once leaving the extreme southwest coast of florida, there it may try to strengthen a little bit more before making some kind of landfall in the Carolinas and then moving in a due north fashion up the east coast... Doesn't sound like a whole lot of trouble right? WRONG! First off its been raining for two, or for some, 3 days from florida to maine... Since there were drought like conditions in place before that, only minor flooding has taken place... But, tomorrow we can expect that rain to continue and then finally, Thursday will be the day where the east coast will be pounded by potentially 4-8, maybe 10 inches of rain!!!! Flooding, Flooding, Flooding!!!! The current forecast gives a catastrophic like scene up and down the east coast... Probably similar if not worse than what was going on across minnesota last week... I still think winds will be an issue, especially east of the storms center... expect sustained winds to be from 50-60 mph around the carolina landfall where gusts may get in and around 70 mph, and then toward the big Northeast cities, winds ranging from 35-50 mph with gusts probably close to 60 mph... west of the storms center is where the worst flooding will be, but a zone just in between both, may be where the worst of the storm occurs...



-Scott Pecoriello

Things get fired up again... The next 2-3 storms will be the big ones to watch...

Boy oh Boy... The season is ramping back up, but not the way it did before... This time our concern is not the classic african wave parade back in late august and through september, instead its the carribean development delema... (made that one off the top of my head)... This happens when the african waves are at least half the strength they were before, the waters are 2-3 degrees cooler, and the waves leave the african coast about a hundred miles or so to the south... Now the waves can't develope because the right conditions are not in place... So instead the waves are carried all the way to the leeward islands where the waters are now 4 or 5+ degrees above average, and most conditions are near perfect... from there the U.S. already has close to a 65% chance of impact from the storm... And then, it goes in three general paths...



The latest computer models favor only one of these paths though... It could be the most dangerous path, or the better path...



Through florida and then out to the east coast of the U.S.... Now the feared would be if it came right up to the coast and cause major problems...

After one passed up the coast, the models show the next one developing, and this pattern goes on 2 or 3 times, so the potential is there for more than 3 tropical systems to move up the eastern seaboard each with heavy, heavy rains, and very gusty and strong winds... So Miami FL to Bangor ME watch out over the next 3 weeks...

-scott pecoriello

Quick night time comments...

1. Julia is done, just a sea storm moving to the north... Amazingly Karls moisture is still hitting mexico, even parts of texas...

2. Igor is still on track to my last forecast yesterday... The difference is it should hit as just a moderate to weak category 2 storm, but still, similar damage is expected to my last forecast...

3. The next storm, lisa to be, could develop as early as tomorrow, or as late as mid to late week... The earlier it develops the more likely the storm is to turn north and maybe out to sea even though even the models that bring it north eventually turn it back to the west and some to the southwest so it looks to become a threat either way, but who knows whats going to happen once past the islands, or how close it gets to the islands... There it could still turn out to sea... But then again it could hit land...

4. For the last week now models have been very consistent with a gulf coast storm, better yet a hurricane... Yes we may even have Matthew on our hands come next weekend... Where the models point the storm will go may be catastrophic...

5. Finally, the left over moisture in karl may actually become a storm... Now the chances of it are low, but whether it becomes a depression or not, rain along with some gusty wind is likely, but flooding will be the main issue for sections of mexico and texas...

-scott pecoriello

Bermuda to be destroyed... Lisa coming soon...

Well, my forecast unfortunately continues to shift east, putting it dangerously close to Bermuda... For this not to be a certain death storm, every person on that island needs to be evacuated starting tomorrow, as well as have Hurricane Warnings posted all over the Bermuda Island area... It's hard for me to explain the conditions that Bermuda will feel from Saturday night through Monday... The storm will hover over the area for potentially 48 hours, that in reality will feel like a week... The coastline will be covered by ocean, probably as far inland as a half a mile or so before elevation climbs... Rainfall totals will be upward of 5 or 6 inches... probably up to 8... at this point I cannot be sure though... Winds sustained at potentially 120 or 125 mph with gusts close to 160 mph... Devastating damage will occur... Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. As I stated before, the storm surge will be incredible... Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Bermuda will basically be cut of from the rest of the world and become no mans land for potentially several days to a week... So as you can see, this storm is nothing to joke about... I fear the worst for Bermuda, which at this point, would make the island a living hell...
As if Igor weren't enough to be stressed about, Karl will slam Mexico maybe sometime tomorrow... I'm not so up to date with Karl, as I have been focusing more on Igor, Julia, and something later down the road... Last I checked Karl was a category 1 storm, with the potential to become a category 2 or maybe even a weak category 3 hurricane before making landfall... Mexico will also be absolutely devastated by this storm... Direct impact will actually most likely be better than when it moves inland, or maybe just equal... Winds will be over 100 mph where it makes landfall a good 300 to 500+ miles south of Texas... Even that far south Texas will still feel affects from this storm... Scattered showers with gusty winds will begin to be felt tomorrow, but conditions will improve shortly.... Once Karl is done ripping apart the coastline, he will move into the mountain area where he will sit and destroy... This storm will certainly go down in history... Floods, floods, floods!!! Mountains will literally begin to fall apart (Really bad mud slides). Karl could take a week to be all set and done...
Julia will be a nothing... At one point though it reached a weak category 4 status with Igor being category 4 at the same time, which made it go down in history, for that was only the second time that has ever happened... Julia will continue to weaken, now a category 1 storm, with winds dissipating... Well later down the road Julia will get wrapped right into Igor as they both die over seas...
LISA?!?! Do we really need another storm?...



Here we have all three, and the fourth concerned area... Just look at Igor... Massive... But trust me the east coast wont be so lucky for too much longer unfortunately, and same goes for the gulf coast... Take a look at where some of the most recent models are taking what looks to be the future Lisa...



Remember... Keep it here for the latest, and be safe...

-Scott Pecoriello

STORMS NOW GONE...

Well damage included downed trees and power lines for the most part... Some car accidents and structural damage due to the storms, but mostly minor... My town went right through the storm... Thunder was heard by me while the storm was in NYC!!! That really says something about the strength... Finally when it arrived, it rained like you wouldn't believe, with potential 3 inches + per hour... Lightning was frequent... But as severe as everyone thought it would be, it wasn't... At least by the time it reached me... The whole time i was waiting to see some monster hail and a 50-80 mph wind gust, but it just never happened... I guess we missed the worst... So for the rest of the night, a large area of moderate to locally heavy rain is moving toward us and should be here by 11 or 12 tonight and then a last strong band of storms which will probably weaken prior to getting here, will arrive at around 4 or 5 am... Stay safe...

-Scott Pecoriello

EMERGENCY POST

I have to make this quick because the storms are getting bad... A "tornado may be ripping through Staten Island to Long Island, and now a new storm in Westchester where rapid strengthening is taking place... Storms packing 80 mph winds, with large hail, and again a potential tornado... Rain will also cause quick flooding... This is a very populated area, and really this scene is almost based off some kind of horror movie... Be safe...

-scott pecoriello

Updated Forecast for Igor... Two others to watch... More in the future?

Well Igor, which i was so confident last night would become a category 5 hurricane, didn't do so... But I see where my mistake was... I was too late on the eye replacement... It came too early for Igor to become a category 5... Now done with the eye replacement cycle, Igor should be able to become a category 5 hurricane... But... It won't because now Igor will begin to move over colder waters... Still, it should become a strong category 4 hurricane again (Right now packing winds of 145 and gusts of 180, should get back to winds 150 or 155, and gusts close to 200 mph) before slowly loosing strength and giving into category 3 status... And When it makes its closest passing to Bermuda (possible direct hit) it will be a weak category 3 before weakening to category 2 just past Bermuda with its closest approach to the Northeast... Now back to its "closest U.S. approach". Well unfortunately it did make that West north westerly turn this morning but still well off from the original forecast... So yes, i tweaked my forecast just a bit, but i still believe it will pass in between the U.S. east coast, and Bermuda... So here it is... Enjoy!



-Scott Pecoriello

Let's see how my forecast does...

Ok, Igor... Category 5 by tomorrow morning the latest is my call on it... Sometime tomorrow or tomorrow night Igor will go through an eyewall replacement which will bring it back down to a category 4, and then after maybe briefly a 5 again, but it will be the first 5 since 2007... Actually Igor is only 1 of 12 storms to be a category 5 where it is in that part of the atlantic... Ok so i drew a forecast as usual... But so far every model, forecast, and website has been off... Try to turn it north... It is still staying on a steady westerly direction, and if that doesn't change soon, trouble is going to come quickly... Already Igor is supposed to be north of 20N meanwhile it stays steady at about 17N... Now I know 5 degrees isn't a big difference, but if thats off, maybe a lot of other stuff is off... I just really can't see me waking up tomorrow to find out all of a sudden Igor has turned NW, so i am one of very few who still believe Igor is going to continue west for at least tomorrow, and we'll see just how my forecast plays out... In the future it brings it to Earl's path, but that's in a while so here it is... Enjoy!



-Scott Pecoriello

Quick update, but crucial...

Just quickly and to the point, Igor will become a category 5 storm probably by Wednesday or Thursday maybe earlier... Big problems lie ahead though, models are doing "earl" so to speak... The original forecast is to turn north and miss everyone maybe hit Bermuda, but then slowly switch to the west... My gut feeling is that this storm will do an "earl" maybe even more to the west or east, but what the data feeling is that Bermuda is in a whole lot of trouble, and may face the worst destruction ever felt by a storm... So lots of questions and not too many answers... Also, i should mention T.D. 12 has formed which again gut feeling will follow Igor's path, data feeling will turn to the north and do nothing to anybody... Also... if that weren't enough... a low looking better oganized continues to sit and spin in the carribean giving hispanola and hati bands of rain and wind... most models point to this hitting the yucatan peninsula and then entering the very southwest gulf where it should become a tropical storm or hurricane depending on a couple things and then take the classic path that 2 other storms have already taken this year... Lots going on, and more in the future... keep it here...

-Scott Pecoriello

For me... I'm done with Earl... Others... Still have a long way to go...

As mentioned in the title, west of New London, Suffolk County and west of Rhode Island and the general Boston area, are in the clear... Meaning the most you are going to get is some showers from time to time with winds no higher than 30 mph, maybe a period of rain... So my house is in the clear... For others though, Earl is still a strong storm with top winds around 80 mph gusting to about 100 mph... The problem is this wind field and rain field are expanding making conditions very bad across eastern MA, RI, and the eastern portions of long island and CT where sustained winds could be around 40-60 mph with winds 60- 75 or maybe 80 closer to the cape and islands... Keep in mind these are sustained winds, so gusts could be 55-75 with gusts 75-90 or maybe nearing 100 mph closer to the cape and islands... Rainfall will likely exceed 3 inches with the highest rainfall upward of 4 or 5 inches... Back the NYC, western CT area, the tropical storm watches have now been lifting so tropical storm conditions are not expected across that area... So watch out, because the worst for many is still yet to come...

Moving right along here, onto new business... Believe me as disappointed as I am about Earl missing me, and trust me I am disappointed, I can't be too upset because there is just too much action in the Atlantic to be disappointed about hurricanes missing you... So here it is... We have Fiona... Now countinueing on this weakening trend should die out completely after giving minamal tropical storm conditions to the Bermuda Island... Really just more of a nuisance... What's up with Gaston?!? Well first TD 8, then TS gaston, then back to a TD, and now so weak that it is being considered a tropical rainstorm... So why is the NHC holding onto this storm and not just saying yeah it's done, short lived??? Well they're worried about this storm really regaining quite a bit of strength, in fact, potentially a hurricane by next week... Here's something scary, look at one of the worldwide models last night (can't remember exactly which one) it showed a massive hurricane ripping through the islands of the carribean before destroying the Bahamas and making some sort of dramatic landfall in miami, then making the classic Katrina move and cutting into the above average warm waters of the gulf where the model showed a category 5 hurricane sitting and waiting to kill... Now before I freak everyone out, keep in mind this storm is weeks away from coming near any type of land, and it may not even regain strength for all we know... Also this track could be totally and completely wrong... So loads of uncertainty... And if that wasn't enough, a monster wave just left the African coast a couple of days ago and could pose yet another threat the u.s....

As always, i'll be sure to keep you updated...

-Scott Pecoriello

Models trying to hint at something?

Just glancing through the models, the track hasn't changed, but what has? well the shape and size and different details of the storm are now beginning to maybe become more clear... Several models are now showing areas more of the wind and moisture shifting further west... First the GFS showed it, then the DGEX, and then the world wide nogapes... Unfortunatley i can't show you the GFS because it wouldn't let me post it, but take a look at the DGEX and nogapes and just imagine the GFS slightly worse than those two...

DGEX:


Nogaps:


keep it here for more... Sorry about the video...

-scott pecoriello

Joe Bastardi, my last hope?

Believe it or not, I am a weather freak... which unfortunately means sadly your mind is rather sick... By that I mean, I was kind of hoping earl would take that westerly track and hit us... I know, I know, it's a terrible thing to hope, but having the disease "weather freak" is not easy... So... Earl has weakened quite a bit... It has now officially passed its strongest point which was later yesterday with winds sustained at about 145 mph with gusts upward of 175... Now, after hitting slightly cooler waters and currently going threw its second eye wall replacement, Earl has sustained winds at 115 mph with gusts upward of about 140 mph... The storm is now technically moving to the North at a very fast 18 mph, but here's the catch... Since this is going through an eye replacement which is when the eye of the hurricane fades out and a new one forms under it, the storm is likely to wobble and drift both back and fourth east and west... now of course the hope would be that it wobbles more east then west, but that may not be the case which is why we need to keep an extra close eye on this... Now onto Joe Bastardi... this is the man who as of yesterday still thought this storm could go more west then everyone else thought... Now today he is beginning to really back down and doubt the chances of that happening... He was really my last "hope", or for most "fear". So expect a very detailed video later tonight, but for now here are some detailed forecast of what is expected...

NYC:

Well the showers should begin to enter the area by 2 or 3 pm, although the timing isn't really worked out yet... Once the rain or drizzle begins it will probably be scattered for 2 or 3 hours with sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts in certain bands to about 40 mph... During hour 3 or 4 of the storm there will be an hour at the least of some sort of steady rain with sustained wind closer to 30 mph and gusts around 45 mph... Once the hour passes expect back to scattered showers and winds at about 25-30 with gusts to 40 mph... Expect rainfall to range from 0.25 to 0.50 with maybe an inch of rain depending on what bands of the storm hit... Just a side note, these scattered showers will be the storms outer and middle rain bands, with the hour of steady rain associated with the outer edge of the main storm... I expect the top winds in NYC to reach 45 mph at the most...

Philadelphia:

Scattered showers to start late morning, again timing is not really worked out yet... This should only be scattered showers and cloudy with sustained winds at 15 or 20 mph tops, with some gusts in a couple bands reaching 30 mph... by later in the day and toward the night all activity should be set and done... rainfall should be less than 0.25 inches, with the top wind reaching 35 mph at the very very most...

Westport CT::

The rain should begin at about 3 or 4 PM maybe earlier, the times haven't really been worked out yet... the rain will begin scattered for the first hour or so before becoming more in the steady category with winds potentially sustained at about 30-35 mph with some gusts in rain bands close to or around 50 mph... The steadier rain should last for 2-3 hours before returning back to scattered showers very late Friday night... Expect the rainfall for the most part to range from about 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain with potentially up to 2 inches if some of the heavier bands work into the area... Tropical storm conditions are possible after the first or second hour of the storm... Top wind should be at the very very most a 55 mph gust is possible but not likely... minor damage to life and property are possible... It is possible that a tropical storm warning is issued for the area as we head through the next 24 hours... It is even possible that the warning may be called during the middle of the storm...

New London:

Rain should begin by around 4 pm, but that is not set in stone by any mean... The rain will begin scattered and gust but it shouldn't take long for the storm to get underway and the rain to become a steady rain... sustained winds should be around 45 or 50 mph with scattered gusts to 60 mph... It is possible that the rain becomes heavy briefly and gusts reach slightly upward of 60 mph... Once that passes though, the rain should start to drop in intensity, as well as the winds... Still the winds should remain steady at 45 or 50 mph before finally dropping to a calm very late Friday night... Tropical storm conditions are very likely, and at times it may feel like a very strong tropical storm, but it is not expected to get as bad as hurricane force... Minor to medium damage to property and life... Rainfall expected between 1.50 and 2.50 inches with maybe up to 3 inches, as well as top wind reaching maybe just maybe 70 mph, but that is very unlikely... Due to this, it is possible, but not very likely, that a hurricane watch is issued in the next 24 hours...

The rest of the forecasts will be featured in the video... be sure to watch!...

-Scott Pecoriello

History in the making...

Well its history in the making here as hurricane earl approaches the area... Now back to a cat 4 status, earl actually has about a 20% chance of becoming a cat 5 by tomorrow... so here's the latest... The track continues to very slowly, but surely shift to the west... Earl is now changing directions moving NNW, but my gut feeling is it may change back to NW for a little while before becoming NNW and then N again... Looking at the current track its still the same for me with maybe a mile shift the the west... As long as the models keep this slow westerly shift, meteorologists will have to begin shifting their forecasts west probably starting tomorrow... If by tomorrow the storm gets to 76, 77 west, then we all need to panic, assuming from there major destruction is likely... if it moves a couple of degress west thats more normal... so why history? well the first thing that im most excited about, is that where i live it is the first time in about 20-25 years a tropical storm watch has been issued... Also Earl could be one of the strongest, if not, the strongest hurricane to reach the carolinas and north... It could be as high as a cat 4 status when it does so... So keep it here because i am still very, very confused with all that is going on here with the track... some forecasts are really starting to worry me...

-Scott Pecoriello