More on Earl...

Tonight I'm just reviewing the scenarios and how likely they each are... Scenario # 1 would potentially devastate the whole east coast and be one of the worst storms to hit the U.S. ever... Millions of dollars in damage, and life threatening impact... Scenario #2 would give the extreme coastal areas bad destruction and again maybe life threatening impacts, but the larger cities would get some moderate to heavy rain with tropical storm force gusts, and potentially sustained winds... Scenario #3 would give just extreme coastal areas tropical storm force gusts, and some heavy rain but nearly no destruction, and big cities would get at the most a passing shower...



-Scott Pecoriello

Hurricane Earl reaches scary category 3 status... Where will it go next?

As of 1:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Earl was a Category 3 hurricane with winds at aproximatley 125 MPH with gusts past 150 MPH... Earl is currently located just to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico... Reports from all the islands affected by the storm includes structural damage, flooding, and large swells coming in quickly... Many of the islands currently feeling hurricane force winds as Earl begins to slowly move away... Right now Earl is moving at 15 mph to the WNW, still strengthening and expected to become a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow, and there is a slim chance, and the chances are growing, that Earl becomes the first category 5 storm of the year! The potential is there once it gets to the NE of the bahamas, thats where the storm will at least be at its strongest point... Now from there it gets very complicated... At that point the storm will most likely be moving to the NW toward the Carolina coast... My best guess is that it comes just offshore the carolina coast and turns N before rather quickly turning NNE and then NE just south of long island and barely missing the cape and curving along the canadian coast... Now a 50 mile difference could wreck havoac along the entire east coast... Here's the specifics...



How far offshore will the storm be?

Cape Cod: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Westport CT: 80-100 miles, 25- 50 MPH, 1-2 inches
NYC: 100- 150 miles, 15- 35 MPH, .50-1 inch
Atlantic City: 80-100 miles, 25-50 MPH, 1-2 inches
Cape Hatteras: 30-50 miles, 60-80 MPH, 4-8 inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: 10-30 miles, 70-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: 15-30 miles, 65-85 MPH, 8-10 inches

So you can see a 50 mile shift would be terrifying... Here's what it could be like...

Cape cod: Landfall, 80-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Westport: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
NYC: 50-100 miles, 20- 45 MPH, 1-2 inche
Atlantic city: 30-50 miles, 50-75 MPH, 4-8 inches
Cape Hatteras: Landfall, 85-100+ MPH, 10+ inches
Southeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 75-90 MPH, 10+ inches
Northeast Nova Scotia: Landfall, 70- 85 MPH, 10+ inches

-Scott Pecoriello

Not much has changed...

Its about 12 pm now and other than Earl finally becoming a hurricane, things still remain almost as uncertain as before... Here is the slightly tweaked path's for Danielle (which is pretty much done for), Earl, and Fiona...




-scott pecoriello

Tropical breakdown...

Today I'm going to keep it simple, and just do a breakdown of each and every tropical/future tropical storms starting with Danielle, and ending with what could be t.d. 9...

Danielle:

Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : Less than 2%

Danielle's path is now almost certain with the storm passing somewhere between 180 and 200 miles to the east of Bermuda... Bermuda should only experience a few affects from the storm considering the wind span is only about 175 miles, and a rain span of about 190-200 miles in some of the outer bands... Bermuda should expect to see 35-45 mph winds, with showers of light to moderate rain... also Bermuda should expect wave heights to be between 12-15 feet, with the highest wave heights to 18 feet just a few miles off the coast... Danielle now a category 4 with winds 135 mph and gust close to 170, it should weaken slightly as it makes its closest pass to Bermuda sometime very late tomorrow and early Sunday... Once passing, then expect the slight weakening to start taking place with winds coming down to 125 mph... by Tuesday expect winds to be down to around 115 or 110 as a category 3 status, and by Wednesday faster weakening as Danielle experiences strong shear and colder waters which will bring the storm down to either a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm before completely falling apart by early next weekend... Just something interesting that i found out today is that they're actually doing a titanic expedition in the north Atlantic, where they're planning to use underwater robots to discover new areas never seen before in the titanic... coincidentally, hurricane Danielle is expected to pass almost directly over that area as a potentially category 1 hurricane at the least, with that boat experiencing waves 25+ feet if it doesn't get out of that area which may not be until tomorrow, but tomorrow looks like it will be just in time before it gets bad... even leaving tomorrow though will cause wave between 6 and 10 feet, which is rough...



Earl

Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 45%

Well Earl is currently have some trouble strengthening, battling some really dry air right now, mixed in with some shear... None the less, all of these problems will rather quickly disappear in the next 24-36 hours, which is when Earl will have a chance to begin strengthening... It will head in a W direction over the next 2-4 days and should become a hurricane in the next 48-60 hours... Once that happens, and only when it becomes a hurricane, the storm will then begin turning WNW and eventually NW... Now the three key players are a frontal boundary, high pressure, and storm strength... If the frontal boundary and the storm miss a connection and high pressure is over the central Atlantic extending close to Bermuda, and the storm isn't giant yet, the storm has a really good shot at making potentially a direct hit at the U.S. If maybe the storm intensifies too quickly, the frontal boundary and the storm make a strong connection, and the high pressure is over the middle and eastern Atlantic and over the east coast, the storm has a good shot at curving to the NW then NNW then N and finally almost all the way east, slamming into Bermuda... So it's basically a lose, lose, as of now... The best thing would be if it took an in between and went directly in the middle of the U.S. and Bermuda, which currently, isn't a very favored solution...



Soon to be Fiona

Chances of directly affecting the U.S. : 70%

Well a very strong wave has now been over the warm eastern Atlantic waters for 3 or 4 days now, and is still looking rather healthy on satellite images... Last blog i made a prediction that the storm would be named or at least called T.D. 8 by tomorrow or Sunday, and i still stick with that... Right now it is fighting a little bit of dry air and shear, but for the most part it is in a good position for developing... Once called T.D. 8 or Fiona, it will work on a short WSW track before turning just to the west... It could indeed become a hurricane by mid week and potentially, if everything remains as is, a major hurricane by late week... A lot of uncertainty with this one because it is so far in the future... My best guess for now is that this storm will track closest to the coast out of three storms... A lot of the models though, are having trouble showing the storm... The national hurricane center gives this storm a 70% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours which sounds right... This is really going to be the one that we're going to need to watch for the next 2 weeks, because there are a lot of places it could end up...



Gaston?:

Chances of affecting the U.S. : 50%

This one is really far in the future... Right now it is just on the edge of Africa and the far east Atlantic, south of the islands... As of now, its just a wave... Nothing really special to it, other than the knowledge that waves developed... So could this be Gaston? Well over the next week I give it about a 50% chance of developing, and since its so far in the future, I can't say at all where its going other than it may take a very similar path to Fiona...

Keep it here... A lot going on!!!

-Scott Pecoriello

The African wave parade... Tropics are on fire...

The African wave parade? What could that possibly mean? Well first off I'd like to start by saying the tropics are very alive and very active. In fact, we could potentially have 3 to as much as 5 storms active in the atlantic all at once, and as of now I believe (if we do have 5 storms) that 3 of those will have an impact on the U.S. And this, is just the beginning of a very long, hard, stressful, and for me a very exciting season...



I still haven't explained the title, "The African wave parade". For me, and for many meteorologists, this is where everything is now starting. We kick it off with Danielle, which is now a category 1 hurricane after briefly weakening and now re-strenghthening. Danielle left right off the African coast just about 4 or 5 days ago, and now right behind it folling the leader of the "parade", is Earl,which was just named only hours ago. The storm is really looking very healthy on satelite images. And now, after both Danielle, and Earl, is a 3rd giant tropical wave which is how Danielle and Earl developed in the first place. I predict this storm becomes TD 8 by Saturday or Sunday, but likely earlier, and models and satelitte images just show more to follow in a very parade fashion... So now that we have the titles out of the way, what about the forecasted track?

Very important, where are all these storms headed... Let's start with Danielle... I've been very careful constantly checking models with this one, which I still believe is forecasted at least slightly incorrect, if not it could be off by a lot... Just a little while ago this storm finally began to turn in more of a NW direction opposed to its original WNW direction. The problem here is the storm was really supposed to turn in that direction close to a day or two ago and is first making its move now, plus models are printing out really weird things with this now...







Sooner or later NOAA and Accuweather.com are going to have to wake up and start worrying about this storm taking the curve that is now being shown on the models. This only started popping up on these models 3-5 hours ago, and seems like more and more models are joining in... looks like the storm will turn NW then NNW like expected, but then after reach a N direction the storm will quickly turn NNW and then NW, before potentially slamming right into the coast... Now since this may be a glitch, and its very new updates I'm giving this about a 30% to at most maybe a 40% chance of affecting the east coast... Now that is very high considering everyone else is giving it between a 3% and 10% chance at most... But I have to consider all possibilities which is why I can't give this a 100% or a 0% but im leaning more toward 0% just because of the confidence NOAA and Accuweather have... So for now expect this storm to take a path not affecting the east coast, but potentially bermuda, but let me be the first to create the idea of this storm curving back west somewhere between NC and ME...

Now onto Earl and soon to be TD 8... Lets start with Earl which interests me just a little bit... Out of all 3 of these storms I think Earl has the second best chance of affecting the United States... More of a chance than Danielle... Right now I give it a 50%, but that can really change in a hurry... By tomorrow it could be a 75% chance or a 30% chance... This storm will continue to move in a westerly fashion as it is doing before becoming a WNW direction just before the Lesser Antilies and Puerto Rico... Then eventually becoming NW but hooking out a good 50-100 miles further to the west than Danielle... This time instead of just moving east of Bermuda, it may just move West, inbetween the U.S. and Bermuda... From there it could brush the U.S. or curve out like Danielle... Now soon to be T.D. 8, gives me the most excitment... For now I'm giving this a 65% chance of an impact on the U.S., so this is really one to watch... Moving in a WSW direction at first, it should quickly move west off the coast of Africa where it will have a fairly easy time developing into T.D. 8, and soon to be Fiona... Once that happens it should continue west... It will be very close to the Lesser Antilies and virgin islands, and may very well have a good chance at brushing them at hurricane strength before making a NW turn toward the Bahamas where from there it has a good chance of potentially brushing the whole east coast at maybe hurricane status... Now this could be weeks away so nothing, not even Danielle is set in stone, but this will be a general direction of the next 3 storms, and check out the pattern...



So the pattern is basically all the storms are moving closer and closer to the coast... Now before I go, just a few other areas of concern. A couple hundred miles east of Nicaragua in the southern caribbean a very broad and large are of thunderstorms has about a 30%-50% chance of developing in the next 48 to 60 hours... Gulf of mexico... a weakening front coming through is creating activity and in the next 48 hours a depression or a weak tropical storm could sprown out from this... If this did happen the storm would most likely head toward Texas and maybe northern Mexico... Finally, a low pressure over parts of florida... One just west of tampa bay and the other to the east of savannah, have about a 20%-40% chance of developing in the next 36-48 hours before its too late... If a depression comes out of the one west of tampa bay, it will most likely move in a NW fashion toward the coast, and if the one to the east of savannah became a depression, you could expect the storm to move to the north and some models have been showing a possible rapid development and quick landfall anywhere from the Carolinas to the Cape over the next couple days... A lot of action... get ready for more and keep checking back here!!!!

-Scott Pecoriello